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Red Letter Days
for a Baseball Fan


Hall of Fame Veterans Committee Winners - December 8
Winter Meetings -
December 8-11
Hall of Fame Announcement - January 6

Player Salaries

Average Major League player salaries rose 8.2% in 2014 to a record $3.95m.  Highest team payroll the Dodgers, overtaking the Yankees for the first time in 15 years.  Average salary for Dodgers $7.8m.

The 2014 Payroll $
1. Dodgers    $ 241,129,402
2. Yankees    $ 208,913,884
3. Phillies    $ 175,136,056
4. Tigers    $ 161,478,526
5. Red Sox   $ 154,380,395
6. Giants    $  146,364,108
7. Nationals    $ 133,866,735
8. Rangers    $ 130,855,596
9.  Blue Jays    $ 128,917,500
10. Angels    $ 126,314,500
11. D'backs  $ 111,030,333
12. Braves    $ 109,455,673
13. Reds    $ 109,290,771
14. Cardinals    $ 107,020,360
15. Orioles    $ 102,022,621
16. Rockies    $ 100,082,071
17. Brewers    $97,374,338
18. Royals    $ 90,481,500
19. Padres    $ 89,092,595
20. Mariners    $ 88,227,342
21. Mets    $ 82,491,453
22. Twins    $ 81,912,500
23.  Rays    $ 81,535,290
24.  White Sox   $ 80,392,815
25.  Indians    $ 79,895,800
26.  Pirates    $ 77,284,499
27.  Athletics    $ 76,930,900
28.  Cubs    $ 71,674,356
29.  Astros    $ 44,485,800
30.  Marlins    $ 40,565,400


Stat Geek Baseball's
Payroll Tidbits

Ave. Salaries By Position 2014
Catcher - $2,620,961
1st Base - $6,886,792
2nd Base - $4,300,645
3rd Base - $3,474,321
Shortstop - $3,663,368
Outfield - $4,592,538
Pitcher - $3,532,706
All - $3,936,922


Ave. Salaries By Service Time 2014

Under 1.000 Year - $551,070
1.000-1.171 - $620,195
2.000-2.121 - $603,156
Super 2 - 3.171 - $2,398,041
4.000-4.171 - $3,415,175
5.000-5.171 - $5,792,824

Free Agent - 6.171 - $7,461,178
7.000-7.171 - $7,593,716
8.000-8.171 - $11,616,934
9.000-9.171 - $6,672,631
10.000-10.171 - $12,378,440
11.000-11.171 - $8,096,542
12.000-12.171 - $9,145,955
13.000-13.171 - $16,050,000
14.000-14.171 - $9,824,060
15.000-15.171 - $8,144,977
16.000 and over - $4,373,770

Note: Super Two level for 2014 season is 2.122.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Super Two level for 2013 season was 2.139.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Salary source: USA Today Salary Database.





     
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The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of December 15

Free Agents
Edison Volquez signs 2 year $20,000,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
 Kansas City pays market value for Volquez.  SPRO 2 years $18,476,000 and okay with a third year at those numbers.

Gavin Floyd signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract plus $6m incentives with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cleveland overpays for Floyd.  This borders on nuts. Floyd's 3 year rolling average of PEVA values has decreased for years, from 9.871 in 2009 to 9.850 to 7.525 to 6.612 to 3.311 to 2.185 after 2014.  That's serious downturn and not for one year.  SPRO $1,967,000.

Brett Anderson signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract plus incentives with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Anderson.  It's been a good long while since Anderson was that type of money good, but he is still young, and at one time, was that good.  SPRO $1,996,000.

Michael Morse signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract plus incentives with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami gets bargain in Morse. SPRO 2 years $11,370,000.

Chris Capuano
signs 1 year $5,000,000 contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees overpay for Capuano.  SPRO $3,346,000.

Brandon Morrow signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract plus $5m incentives (starter) or $1m incentives (reliever) with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Diego pays market value for Morrow.  Although they didn't really have to add in those incentives for us.  SPRO $2,159,000.

Alex Rios signs 1 year $11,000,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City overpays for Rios.  He's on the downside for a couple years.  SPRO $8,200,000.

Daniel Descalso signs 2 year $3,600,000 contract with Rockies and $500,000 incentives per year.
SPRO Analysis -
 Colorado pays market value for Descalso.  We would have gone year to year, but 2 is okay at these numbers.  SPRO for year 1 $1,227,000.

Re-signed with Club
Sergio Romo signs 2 year $15,000,000 contract plus $1m incentives with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Francisco pays market value for Romo.  It's a little above, but not far, and there's concern that Romo's been on the down for two straight years.  SPRO 2 years $13,156,000.

David Hernandez signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Diamondbacks, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
 Arizona pays market value for Hernandez.  These are tough ones with a player who misses the whole year.  SPRO $1,746,000.

Week of December 8

Free Agents
Chase Headley signs 3 year $52,000,000 contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees pay market value for Headley. SPRO 3 years $58,153,000.

Jason Motte signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago Cubs get bargain in Motte. That seems odd to say for a pitcher who only pitched 25 innings over the last two years.  SPRO 1 year $5,578,000.

Jed Lowrie signs 3 year $23,000,000 contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
 Houston pays market value for Cabrera.  SPRO 3 years $22,362,000.

Melky Cabrera signs 3 year $42,000,000 contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox pay market value for Cabrera. We wouldn't have gone quite that high on a per year basis, but were okay with a 4 year deal, so this is fine. SPRO 3 year $37,100,000.  4 year $50,189,000.

Kyuji Fujikawa signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Rangers,  plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Texas overpays for Fujikawa.  I know, you have to pay this for a 34 year old, but geez, he's pitched 25 IP in two years since he's been here, so he's really not much better than a AAAA option.  SPRO $521,000.

Ervin Santana signs 4 year $55,000,000 contract with Twins, including $14m conditional option.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota overpays for Santana.  SPRO 3 year $28,170,000.

Justin Masterson signs 1 year $9,500,000 contract with Red Sox, plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston overpays for Masterson.  Slightly.  SPRO $8,256,000.

Kendrys Morales signs 2 year $17,000,000 contract with Royals, including $11m option w/$2m buyout.  Also includes $750,000 incentives per year
SPRO Analysis -
 Kansas City overpays for Morales.  Just why you'd give out a multi year contract at these numbers for a 0.218 hitter, we don't know.  SPRO 2 years $11,335,000.  Guess they really want those 8 HR and 42 RBI's (401 Plate Appearances).

John Mayberry, Jr. signs 1 year $1,450,000 contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -
New York Mets pay market value for Mayberry. We know it's not a direct comparison since Mayberry is still in the ARB years of his career, but he hit 7 HR with 23 RBI in 168 Plate Appearances vs. Morales above.  And he can play the field.  This is not a play for giving John M. more money, but a tale as to why Morales shouldn't get it either.  SPRO $1,742,000.

Brandon McCarthy signs 4 year $48,000,000 contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for McCarthy.  There's not one year of his career that McCarthy was worth $12m per, but they're paying him for four.  And with the exception of last year, he doesn't give you innings.  Not worth it.  SPRO 2 year $11,565,000.

Alberto Callaspo signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Braves, including $1m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta gets bargain in Callaspo.  Actually right near the money with the incentives, but they've got a deal where they don't have to pay them unless good conditions are met.  SPRO $4,403,000.

Jon Lester signs 6 year $155,000,000 contract with Cubs, including vesting option at $15m for additional year.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago Cubs overpay for Lester.  Very good pitcher, not worth this type of money.  SPRO 5 years $83,616,000.

Luke Gregerson signs 3 year $18,500,000 contract with Astros, plus $2.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Houston pays market value for Gregerson.  SPRO 3 years $18,868,000.

David Robertson signs 4 year $46,000,000 contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox overpay for Robertson.  Guess we're where the Yankees were, thinking that paying big time closer money for a one year closer is too large a risk.  SPRO 3 year $20,471,000.

Jason Hammel signs 2 year $18,000,000 contract with Cubs, including $10m option w/$2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago Cubs overpay for Hammel.  He's back, but the cost is too high.  Last year Hammel was fine, but not great, and the two years before that, he didn't give you lots of innings.  It's like getting Kyle Kendrick but with less durability.  SPRO 2 years $11,746,000.

Re-signed with Club
Bryce Harper signs 2 year $7,500,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
 Washington pays market value for Harper.  SPRO 2 years $6,935,000.

Francisco Liriano signs 3 year $39,000,000 contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
 Pittsburgh overpays for Liriano.  Liriano misses starts, forcing your AAA pitcher into 6+ starts per season.  SPRO 3 years $21,945,000.

Week of December 1

Free Agents
Andrew Miller signs 4 year $36,000,000 contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees overpay for Miller.  Andrew's been very good and getting better each year over the last three years, but never in the closer's role.  Big risk here to get away from David Robertson's demands, which were too high.  But they may have overpaid here.  SPRO 2 years $11,066,000.

Nick Markakis signs 4 year $45,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta pays market value for Markakis.  Consistent player that should add what he's being paid, unlike their last big signs in the Upton brothers.  SPRO 4 year $46,801,000.

Jim Johnson signs 1 year $1,600,000 contract with Braves, plus $900,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta gets bargain in Johnson.  Terrible year last year after a couple really good ones, but he's not going into Atlanta in the same role with Kimbrel there anyway.  SPRO (old role) $6,718,000.

Torii Hunter signs 1 year $10,500,000 contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota pays market value for Hunter.  He's going home at the right price.  SPRO $10,655,000.

Nelson Cruz signs 4 year $57,000,000 contract with Mariners, Mariners, with $1m signing bonus.
SPRO Analysis -
 Seattle pays market value for Cruz.  Might be a lot tougher hitting those bombs in Seattle, but they've paid him what he's worth.  SPRO 4 years $58,219,000.

Re-signed with Club
Colby Lewis signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Texas pays market value for Lewis.  SPRO $3,672,000.

Juston Smoak signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
 Toronto gets bargain in Smoak.  SPRO $1,732,000.

Esmil Rogers signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Yankees, avoiding arbitration.  Deal includes $730,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees pay market value for Rogers.  SPRO, including incentives, $1,089,000.

Ike Davis signs 1 year $3,800,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland gets bargain in Davis.  Small bargain.  SPRO $4,209,000.

Fernando Rodriguez signs 1 year $635,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland pays market value for Rodriguez.  SPRO 1 year $690,000.

Luke Hochever signs 2 year $10,000,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
 Kansas City overpays for Hochever.  Hochever was hurt in 2014 and did not pitch and would be worth the money if he returns to health, but...  SPRO 2 years $6,353,000.

Darwin Barney signs 1 year $2,525,000 contract with Dodgers, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Barney.  Not a good year in 2014, SPRO lower at $1,860,000.

Brandon Kintzler signs 1 year $1,075,000 contract with Brewers, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
 Milwaukee pays market value for Kintzler.  SPRO $1,262,000.

More SPRO contract comparisons







Baseball Evaluation

Hall of Fame Veterans Ballot

Managers Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Cox are elected in a unanimous vote by the Hall of Fame Expansion Era veterans ballot.  Former players now on the veterans ballot did not get the required 75% vote to gain election, including Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin, Ted Simmons, Dave Parker, and Dan Quisenberry.  The ballot for each former era is now held once every three years.

See where the player
candidates rank among Hall of Fame positions in the
Best Ever Book


Frank Baker

Elected to Hall of Fame
January 8, 2014

Greg Maddux 97.2%
Tom Glavine 91.9%
Frank Thomas 83.7%

Elected to the Hall of Fame, the three players which Baseball Evaluation thought would make it.  Craig Biggio just misses, with 74.8% of the 75.0% needed for election.

Others Close:
Mike Piazza 62.2%
Jack Morris 61.5%
Jeff Bagwell 54.3%
Tim Raines 46.1%
Roger Clemens 35.4%
Barry Bonds 34.7%
Lee Smith 29.9%
Curt Schilling 29.2%
Edgar Martinez 25.2%
Alan Trammel 20.8%
Mike Mussina 20.3%
Jeff Kent 15.2%
Fred McGriff 11.7%
Mark McGwire 11.0%
Larry Walker 10.7%
Don Mattingly 8.2%
Sammy Sosa 7.2%

Others who did not get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot next year

Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Hideo Nomo, Rafael Palmeiro, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Mike Timlin

Jack Morris was in his final year on the BBWAA ballot; will be eligible for Veterans ballot in 2016

Who, What, When of HOF Class
Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position.  Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 855 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on March 31, 2014 was $3,936,922.  SPRO projections were $3,583,053.

There has been a significant change over the past year in salary structure, adding approximately 10% to salaries, predominantly for free agent year players.  Most of this will play out over the next several years as national and local television contract increases filter down to the player level.

And how does it compare now to the highest players paid per position.


High Salary
Actual
Who Position High Salary
SPRO
Who
$17,000,000 Brian McCann C $18,176,000 Yadier Molina
$25,000,000 Ryan Howard 1B $24,000,000 Miguel Cabrera
$24,000,000 Robinson Cano 2B $19,148,000 Robinson Cano
$19,329,646 David Wright 3B $16,983,000 Adrian Beltre
$16,000,000 Jose Reyes SS $11,258,000 Troy Tulowitski
$21,250,000 Matt Kemp OF $19,518,000 Jose Bautista
$28,000,000 Zach Grienke P $24,000,000 Justin Verlander
     


     

Contract News!!

Qualiifying offers by present teams to free agents, in order to get top draft picks if signed elsewhere, have risen 8.5% to $15.3 million.  This is up over the $14.1 million of last offseason and $13.3 million of 2012.  22 players received them last year and none accepted.
 
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Team Power Rankings 2014


Pitching
1    Washington Nationals
2    Los Angeles Dodgers
3    Kansas City Royals
4    St. Louis Cardinals
5    Seattle Mariners
6    Cincinnati Reds
7    Oakland A's
8    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9    Baltimore Orioles
10    Atlanta Braves
11    San Francisco Giants
12    Cleveland Indians
13    Chicago Cubs
14    Tampa Bay Rays
15    Pittsburgh Pirates
16    San Diego Padres
17    Philadelphia Phillies
18    Miami Marlins
19    Milwaukee Brewers
20    Detroit Tigers
21    Boston Red Sox
22    New York Yankees
23    New York Mets
24    Toronto Blue Jays
25    Chicago White Sox
26    Houston Astros
27    Minnesota Twins
28    Texas Rangers
29    Arizona Diamondbacks
30    Colorado Rockies

Batting
1    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2    Detroit Tigers
3    Los Angeles Dodgers
4    Pittsburgh Pirates
5    Toronto Blue Jays
6    Cleveland Indians
7    Baltimore Orioles
8    San Francisco Giants
9    Miami Marlins
10    Milwaukee Brewers
11    Chicago White Sox
12    Colorado Rockies
13    Washington Nationals
14    Oakland A's
15    Atlanta Braves
16    St. Louis Cardinals
17    Seattle Mariners
18    New York Mets
19    Philadelphia Phillies
20    Kansas City Royals
21    Cincinnati Reds
22    Texas Rangers
23    New York Yankees
24    Minnesota Twins
25    Tampa Bay Rays
26    Houston Astros
27    Chicago Cubs
28    Boston Red Sox
29    Arizona Diamondbacks
30    San Diego Padres

More Team Power Rankings

Sports ticket deals


Predictions 2014
American League Predictions 2014
National League Predictions 2014
PEVA Power Ranking Shuffle
Index 2014

Arbitration Player/Club Figures
Arbitration Checklist

Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting


Best Total Players Ever 1-20
     

We see in our site searches and are asked from Time to Time, How is PEVA Calculated?  Well, it's complicated and hard to explain.

While we don't get into the pure numbers, perhaps this series of short blog articles from several years back can give you a better view of how and why.

1. The Durability Categories and Why PEVA Values Them So Much

2. Run Production, a Dependent Stat that influences other Stats

3. Wins/Saves. How Do They Figure In

4. Independent Production

5. Pitching & the Defensive Factor

6. Field Value, Controversial Component


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Best Pitchers Ever Career
Best Batters Ever Career

Best Postseason Batting Careers
Best Postseason Pitching Careers

Franchise Best Ever Seasons

Best Ever Postseasons Bat
Best Ever Postseasons Pitch

Best Pitching Seasons
Best Relief Pitching Seasons
Best Batting Seasons


Now Read In the Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hugh Duffy

Stat Geek Baseball Blog  
  


MLB News

New MLB Commissioner

Rob Manfred is elected as the 10th commissioner in MLB history when he was elected by the owners 8-14-2014 to succeed Bud Selig.  His election occurred on approximately the 6th ballot.

Forbes Magazine

announces that for 2014, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in MLB at $2.5b; Dodgers 2nd at $2.088b and Tampa Bay last at $485m.

Understading MLB Options

Moving players from the Majors to the Minors can be a confusing thing for most fans, i.e. how long can a player on the 40 man roster be moved up and down without requiring waivers?  For the most part, a player may be moved up and down for three seasons once they are first placed on the 40 man roster.  That is, assigned to the minors from spring training through the year as many times as wanted for those 3 seasons.  A little known fact, however, is the 5 minor league season rule, allowing a player with less than 5 FULL minor league seasons a 4th year of options.  A full minor league season is defined as a season over 90 days long, i.e. not including short season leagues.

Player Salaries

2012-16 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Payroll implications included $480,000 minimum salary in 2012, rising to $490,000 in 2013, then $500,000, with cost of living adjustments for 2015-16.  Qualifying offer now used to determine Type A Free Agents and draft pick compensation.  In first year with new system, a $13.3 million one year offer had to be offered to player to receive pick.


PEVA Player Rating Boxscore
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

First Year Player Draft

1    HOU    LHP Brady Aiken  
2    MIA    RHP Tyler Kolek  
3    CWS    LHP Carlos Rodon
4    CHC    C Kyle Schwarber  
5    MIN    SS Nick Gordon  
6    SEA    OF Alex Jackson
7    PHI    RHP Aaron Nola  
8    COL    LHP Kyle Freeland  
9    TOR    RHP Jeff Hoffman
10    NYM    OF Michael Conforto  
11    TOR    C Max Pentecost  
12    MIL    LHP Kodi Medeiros
13    SD    SS Trea Turner  
14    SF    RHP Tyler Beede  
15    LAA    LHP Sean Newcomb
16    ARI    RHP Touki Toussaint  
17    KC    LHP Brandon Finnegan  
18    WAS    RHP Erick Fedde  
19    CIN    RHP Nick Howard  
20    TB    1B Casey Gillaspie
21    CLE    OF Bradley Zimmer  
22    LAD    RHP Grant Holmes  
23    DET    OF Derek Hill
24    PIT    SS Cole Tucker  
25    OAK    3B Matt Chapman  
26    BOS    SS Michael Chavis
27    STL    RHP Luke Weaver  
28    KC    LHP Foster Griffin  
29    CIN    SS Alex Blandino
30    TEX    RHP Luis Ortiz  
31    CLE    LHP Justus Sheffield
32    ATL    OF Braxton Davidson  33    BOS    RHP Michael Kopech  
34    STL    RHP Jack Flaherty

Source: MLB.com

2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Rankings - #1-100
Rankings - #101-200

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Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.  Historic baseball statistics were provided courtesy of the Sean Lahman Database and Baseball-Databank.org.  Other statistic sources used include Baseball-reference.com & the Chuck Roscium Catcher Database.
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