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The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of February 23

Free Agents
John Axford signs 1 year $2,600,000 contract with $1,100,000 incentives with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado overpays for Axford. Three straight decreasing years shouldn't make a deal for this high. SPRO $1,931,000.

Everth Cabrera signs 1 year $2,400,000 contract with $600,000 incentives with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Cabrera. A slight bargain since they may not have to pay the incentives, but SPRO is right on the total number at $3,140,000.

Dustin McGowan signs 1 year $507,500 contract with $2.5m incentives with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers get bargain in McGowan. Well, it's actually more of a market value play, although it's possible for the Dodgers to get out cheap. With roster bonuses and other incentives, they've actually paid too much. SPRO 1 years $1,567,000.

Re-signed with Club
Francisco Rodriguez signs 2 year $13m contract with Brewers w/3rd year option of $6m. $4m of money is deferred from 1st two years.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee pays market value for Rodriguez. SPRO 2 years $13,663,000.

Joba Chamberlain signs contract with Tigers. Terms unknown.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit pays ?? for Chamberlain. SPRO $1,559,000.

Week of February 16

Free Agents

Re-signed with Club
Eric Hosmer signs 2 year $13,900,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City pays market value for Hosmer. Signed deal before going to his arbitration hearing. It's a tad high, but we're not going to quibble. SPRO 2 years $12,617,000.

Signed Before Arbitration Hearing
Zero players signed prior to hearing.

Arbitration Hearing
Atlanta Braves LOSE hearing with Mike Minor
Colorado Rockies WIN hearing with Wilin Rosario
Arizona Diamondbacks LOSE hearing with Mark Trumbo
Pittsburgh Pirates LOSE hearing with Pedro Alvarez

Check the Arbitration Hearing Checklist for detals.

Week of February 9

Free Agents
Rickie Weeks signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract plus $2m incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle gets bargain in Weeks. Incentive laden contract good for the club, and appropriate overall. SPRO 1 year $4,489,000, including all incentives.

James Shields signs 4 year $75,000,000 contract plus 5th years option with Padres.
SPRO Analysis - San Diego pays market value for Shields. SPRO 4 years $75,599,000 good.

Re-signed with Club
Kelvin Herrera signs 2 year $4,150,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Herrera. Signed deal before going to his arbitration hearing. SPRO 2 years $5,771,000.

Jon Jay signs 2 year $10,975,000 contract with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis gets bargain in Jay. Yes, some of his numbers look more pedestrian than others, but just look at that OBP. Signed deal before going to his arbitration hearing. SPRO 2 years $14,667,000.

Signed Before Arbitration Hearing
Matt Joyce, Tyler Clippard, Casey McGehee, Aroldis Chapman, Addison Reed, Greg Holland sign prior to hearing.

Arbitration Hearing
Pittsburgh Pirates LOSE hearing with Vance Worley.
Washington Nationals LOSE hearing with Jerry Blevins.
Toronto Blue Jays WIN hearing with Josh Donaldson.
New York Yankees WIN hearing with David Phelps.

Check the Arbitration Hearing Checklist for detals.

Week of February 2

Free Agents
Brook Badenhop signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract plus $250,000 incentives with Reds. Option included for $4m.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati gets bargain in Badenhop. It's that time of the year when those left on the shelf start to be bargains for teams that pick them up. Badenhop was good last year. SPRO says $3,808,000 good, including all incentives.

Kyle Kendrick signs 1 year $5,500,000 contract plus incentives with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado gets bargain in Kendrick. A bit hard to say that, because we don't think Colorado is a good place for Kendrick to pitch. But he does give innings. SPRO $7,151,000, including all potential incentives.

Re-signed with Club
Michael Dunn signs 2 year $5,800,000 contract with Marlins, plus $100,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Miami pays market value for Miley. Signed to this two year deal before going to his arbitration hearing. SPRO 2 years $5,073,000.

Todd Frazier signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Reds.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value for Frazier. Signed this deal before going to his arbitration hearing, actually a slight bargain for both years. SPRO 2 years $13,225,000.

Wade Miley signs 3 year $19,250,000 contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Miley. Signed to this three year deal before going to his arbitration hearing, it may be a big of a bargain. Hard to say as Miley's years have dipped over the last two. SPRO 3 years $21,875,000.

Signed Before Arbitration Hearing
Brandon Belt, Garrett Richards, Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakis, Miquel Gonzalez, Lorenzo Cain, Zach Britton, Pedro Strop, Danny Duffy sign prior to hearing.

Arbitration Hearing
Miami Marlins WIN hearing with Mat Latos.
Toronto Blue Jays LOSE hearing with Danny Valencia.
Oakland A's WIN hearing with Jarrod Parker.
Pittsburgh Pirates WIN hearing with Todd Walker.

Check the Arbitration Hearing Checklist for detals.

Week of January 26

Free Agents
Alexi Ogando signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract, plus $1.5m incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Ogando. Again, no real need for the incentives, but heck, why not. SPRO $1,561,000, including any incentives.

Neal Cotts signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee gets bargain in Cotts. Yes, pending if back at full strength. SPRO $3,986,000.

Chad Billingsley signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract, plus $6.5m incentives, with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Billingsley. Market value, but really no need to offer the incentives, unless they're currying favor for additional years if he pitches well. SPRO $1,489,000.

Casey Janssen signs 1 year $5,000,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington gets bargain in Janssen. Yes, change of role might denote the less money, but he is a closer if needed. SPRO $6,425,000.

Gordon Beckham signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox get bargain in Beckham. Career been sliding, but Beckham still has value and young enough to recover better seasons. SPRO $3,396,000.

Re-signed with Club
Devin Mesoraco avoid arbitration and signs 4 year $28,000,000 contract with Reds.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati gets bargain in Mesoraco. We wouldn't have gone for that fourth year yet, but on a three year basis, it's good. SPRO 3 year $20,789,000.

Signed Before Arbitration Hearing
Bud Norris, Adam Ottavino, Devin Mesoraco, Jarrod Dyson, Brandon Crawford, Jenrry Mejia, Daniel Nava, Steven Pearce, David Freese sign prior to hearing. Check the Arbitration Hearing Checklist for detals.

Week of January 19

Free Agents
Ichiro Suzuki signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Suzuki. Really not as large as the SPRO number will suggest. SPRO does not assume role change, thus the $4,553,000 assumes getting a similar number of at bats as last season, which he probably won't here.

Johnny Gomes signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Braves, including $3m vesting option for 2016.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Gomes. SPRO 1 year $4,113,000.

Colby Rasmus signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston overpays for Rasmus. SPRO 1 year $6,940,000.

Max Scherzer signs 7 year $210,000,000 contract, with Nationals. Contract stated to include deferred earnings ($15m per year for 14 years), bringing present day value down to $185 million.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Scherzer. We think it's a tad high, but maybe that's just us. We're not in favor of these long term pitcher deals, especially for someone pitching into their late 30's. SPRO 7 years $176,400,000.

Nori Aoki signs 1 year $4,700,000 contract with Giants, including $1.5m incentives. Contract also includes $5.5m option.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco gets bargain in Aoki. SPRO $9,012,000, including all incentives.

Re-signed with Club
Ryan Vogelsong signs for 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco gets bargain in Vogelsong. Sure, he's not the same pitcher as three years ago, but even if he pitches this year like last year, it's a bargain. SPRO $7,123,000.

Signed Before Arbitration Hearing
Fernando Abad, Mitch Moreland, Marwin Gonzalez, Eric Sogard, Ryan Flaherty, and Jordan Schafer sign prior to hearing. Check the Arbitration Hearing Checklist for details.

Week of January 12

Free Agents
Anthony Swarzak signs 1 year $900,000 contract, plus $350,000 incentives, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland get bargain in Swarzak. Small one. SPRO $1,364,000, but they're not on the hook for the incentives if not reached.

Re-signed with Club
Henderson Alvarez signs for 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Marlins, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Miami pays market value for Alvareaz. SPRO $4,212,000.

Ryan Cook signs for 1 year $1,400,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland gets bargain in Cook. They almost always do. SPRO $2,279,000.

Sam Fuld signs for 1 year $1,750,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for Fuld. SPRO one year $2,124,000.

Collin Cowgirl signs for 1 year $995,000 contract with Angels, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anaheim pays market value for Cowgill. SPRO $795,000.

David Carpenter signs for 1 year $1,300,000 contract with Yankees, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Carpenter. SPRO $1,612,000.

Nathan Eovaldi signs for 1 year $3,300,000 contract with Yankees, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Eovaldi. SPRO $2,078,000.

Rex Brothers signs for 1 year $1,400,000 contract with Rockies, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado gets bargain in Brothers. Just slightly. SRPO $1,817,000.

Travis Wood signs for 1 year $5,686,000 contract with Cubs, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Wood. SPRO $4,930,000.

Luis Valbuena signs for 1 year $4,200,000 contract with Cubs, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs gets bargain in Valbuena. SPRO $5,267,000.

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Hall of Fame Veterans Ballot

No players have been added in this year's Golden Era Veterans vote. Dick Allen and Tony Oliva come up one vote shy of the required 75% vote to gain election. The ballot for each of the three former eras is now held once every three years.

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candidates rank among Hall of Fame positions in the
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Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position. Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 855 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on March 31, 2014 was $3,936,922. SPRO projections were $3,583,053.

There has been a significant change over the past year in salary structure, adding approximately 10% to salaries, predominantly for free agent year players. Most of this will play out over the next several years as national and local television contract increases filter down to the player level.

And how does it compare now to the highest players paid per position.

High Salary Actual	Who	Position	High Salary SPRO	Who
$17,000,000	Brian McCann	C	$18,176,000	Yadier Molina
$25,000,000	Ryan Howard	1B	$24,000,000	Miguel Cabrera
$24,000,000	Robinson Cano	2B	$19,148,000	Robinson Cano
$19,329,646	David Wright	3B	$16,983,000	Adrian Beltre
$16,000,000	Jose Reyes	SS	$11,258,000	Troy Tulowitski
$21,250,000	Matt Kemp	OF	$19,518,000	Jose Bautista
$28,000,000	Zach Grienke	P	$24,000,000	Justin Verlander

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