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The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of February 17

Free Agent Players
Nelson Cruz signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract, plus $750,000 incentives, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Cruz. Yes, it's lower than the qualifying offer, but it's about right. SPRO $8,435,000.

Chris Capuano signs 1 year $2,250,000 contract with Red Sox, plus $2.75m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Boston gets bargain in Capuano. With the incentives, the contract is right on the money, but the Red Sox are getting him without that risk. SPRO 1 years $5,415,000.

Ubaldo Jimenez signs 4 year $50,000,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Jimenez. We wouldn't have gone the 4th year, but the $ per season are about right. SPRO 3 years $42,680,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Brett Gardner signs 4 year $52,000,000 contract with Yankees, including club option for 5th year at $12.5m with $2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Gardner. Just too high right now. We think the 2014 salary is fine, but would have waited till the end of this season to see if Gardner progressed to be worth this length and term. SPRO 3 years $18,103,000; 2014 - $5,026,000.

Homer Bailey signs 6 year $105,000,000 contract with Reds, including club option for 7th year at $25m w/$5m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati overpays for Bailey. Good pitcher, certainly, not great yet, so for us this is too high, too long, too much SPRO 4 years $43,626,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Andrelton Simmons signs 7 year $58,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta overpays for Simmons. These contracts are hard to judge, as paying a player with only 1.125 years of service time guesses not only when he'll start arbitration (maybe next year or the year after), but projects way into the future for a player with a good, but limited track record. The new ballpark must have a casino, because the Braves are gambling great on this and other contracts. Too long for us. SPRO 3 years $6,676,000.

Week of February 10

Free Agent Players
James McDonald signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs get bargain in McDonald. Not a good year last year, but has had them in the recent past, plus he's still young. SPRO $1,982,000.

A.J. Burnett signs 1 year $15,000,000 contract with Phillies, including $1.75m incentives, and player/team options for 2nd year between $7.5m and $12.75m and $1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia overpays for Burnett. A.J. had a good year last year, but not as good as some think. Peripherals were not as strong as his ERA and IP totals suggest. But, ... considering a pitcher of his talent usually gets more than a one year deal, and we think that's okay, it's not too bad. He gives you innings and keeps you in games. Plus, he's old, and we know Ruben Amaro likes that. SPRO $10,771,000, but okay with additional 2 years.

Tommy Hanson signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas gets bargain in Hanson. Bad year last year, but still young, and a good deal for a 5th starter still in his arbitration years. SPRO $3,761,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Michael Brantley signs 4 year $25,000,000 contract with Indians, including club option for 5th year at $11m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value for Brantley. Wouldn't have gone for the 4th year, but the money is right on the money. SPRO 3 years $15,811,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Craig Kimbrel signs 4 year $42,000,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 5th year at $13m w/$1m buyout, plus $3.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Kimbrel. SPRO 4 years $53,237,000. Yes, that high. Kimbrel is one of the few relievers, i.e. young relievers, who is starting his career in Rivera territory. Don't know where that's going, but Atlanta, for now, got a very good deal.

Julio Teheran signs 6 year $32,400,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 7th year at $12m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta overpays for Teheran. That's not really the right adjective, but in total dollars it probably is. This new world order of extensions to players with less than 2 years of service has given way to lots of club risk. Too many years for us for a player with one very good year. SPRO 3 years $7,295,000.

See the Arbitration Checklist for information on players who filed and exchanged figures in the arbitration hearing process, plus those that signed prior to their hearing.

Week of February 3

Free Agent Players
Paul Maholm signs 1 year $6,500,000 contract, plus incentives, with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers pay market value for Maholm. We're even good with additional years. SPRO $6,317,000.

Bronson Arroyo signs 2 year $23,500,000 contract, including 3rd year option at $11m and $4.5m buyout, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Arroyo. Right on the mark with the two year deal and we're okay with a third. SPRO 2 years $22,348,000; 3 years $34,112,000.

Francisco Rodriguez signs 1 year $3,250,000 contract with $550,000 incentives with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee overpays for Rodriguez. He's back with the Brewers, but this is probably a bit too much. SPRO $2,314,000.

Mitchell Boggs signs 1 year $1,100,000 contract (free agent still with arbitration eligible MLST) with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox get bargain in Boggs. Boggs' contract fortunes took a significant hit when he wasn't tendered a contract by the Rockies after a poor stint there and in the minors. But Boggs has been better than that before last year and has the chance to rebound. SPRO $1,703,000.

Fernando Rodney signs 2 year $14,000,000 contract, plus $1m incentives, with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Rodney. You could argue that SPRO at 2 yrs. $18,234,000 is saying this is a bit of a bargain, but we're not so sure. It may be, particularly in the Seattle park, but we're bothered by the downturn from spectacular to good. If he's only good, then market value may even be too high.

Carlos Marmol signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Marmol. SPRO $1,796,000.

Jerome Williams signs 1 year $2,100,000 contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Williams. SPRO $2.1m. Wouldn't have bothered with the incentives, but they're okay.

Jeff Baker signs 2 year $3,700,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami pays market value for Baker. One year too many for us, but the numbers for year one is right on the money. They say he's getting $1.6m in 2014; SPRO says $1,659,000.

Player Resigns with Club
Coco Crisp signs 2 year extension for 2015-16 for $22,750,000, plus 2017 option at $13m w/$750,000 buyout, with A's. Already due $7.5m in 2014.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for Crisp. SPRO 2 years in 2015/2016 for $19,970,000. SPRO also says he should be paid $9,454,000 in 2014.

Arbitration Contracts
Freddie Freeman signs 8 year $135,000,000 contract with Braves. This would buy out three years of arbitration and five years of free agency.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta overpays for Freeman. This is a tough call. We think Freeman is an excellent player and worth near the $ suggested on a per year basis. But the contract is too long, for us, for a 3 year MLST player in his first year of arbitration. SPRO 5 years $56,019,000. If we had to go 8 years, it would be in the $112m range.

Jason Heyward signs 2 year $13,300,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Heyward. SPRO $12,751,000 for 2 years.

Week of January 27

Free Agent Players
Jason Hammel signs 1 year $6,000,000 contract with Cubs, including $1m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Hammel. SPRO $3,769,000. Hammel's kinda one of those pitchers who you think he's just gotta be better than this. But he isn't. Serviceable as the 5th starter, but really nothing more than that. This spot should really go to your next prospect; he's bound to do as well.

Player Resigns with Club
Bruce Chen signs 1 year $4,250,000 contract, with mutual option for $5.5m and $1m buyout, with Royals. Contract also includes $1.25m performance incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City pays market value for Chen. SPRO $5,410,000. Okay with 2nd year at $5,599,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Alex Avila signs 1 year $4,150,000 contract, with club option for $5.4m and $200,000, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit gets bargain in Avila. SPRO $5,410,000 for 1 year, $11,867,000 for 2 years.

Week of January 20

Free Agent Players
Grant Balfour signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Balfour. Grant lost $3m after the Baltimore deal fell through and he signed for this, but ... he was worth the Baltimore money. Why do I get the feeling that Tampa Bay will get the better of the closer war with the Orioles. SPRO 2 yrs. $15,712,000.

Matt Garza signs 4 year $50,000,000 contract, including $1m incentives and vesting option for 5th year, with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee overpays for Garza. This is a bad deal. We're really talking Kyle Kendrick here and paying him as if he's special, or at least the pitcher he was with the Rays. But he's not. Lower IP, bad peripherals are masked by win totals and an okay ERA. He gives up HR, Hits, and has a bad SO/W Ratio. All worse than league average. I guess if you're worse than league average you get a four year deal worth this. His 3 year rolling PEVA averages have decreased for 3 straight years. Don't be surprised if this doesn't work out for Milwaukee. SPRO 2 yrs. $13,350,000.

Grady Sizemore signs 1 year $750,000 contract, plus $5.25m incentives, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Sizemore. Well, kinda. We like Sizemore and are rooting for him to succeed, but he's really the type of player, after two seasons off, that may not require that incentive package. I guess other teams were structuring their contract offers like that as well, but ..., oh, well, just but. SPRO $850,000.

Eric O'Flaherty signs 2 year $7,000,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for O'Flaherty. We're surprised at the second year and likely would not have done that. Of course, in a way, it might be insurance against a late start. SPRO $2,934,000 in 2014.

More

Pre-Arbitration Contracts

Check out the Hot Stove Page for former Month's Transactions.

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position. Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 752 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on April 8, 2013 was $3,980,093. SPRO projections were $3,968,545. That's a deviation of only 3 tenth of one percent.

And how does it compare to the highest players paid per position.

High Salary Actual	Who	Position	High Salary SPRO	Who
$23,000,000	Joe Mauer	C	$18,524,000	Joe Mauer
$23,125,000	Mark Teixeira	1B	$22,000,000	Prince Fielder
$15,285,714	Chase Utley	2B	$21,982,000	Robinson Cano
$29,000,000	Alex Rodriguez	3B	$22,000,000	Miguel Cabrera
$16,729,000	Derek Jeter	SS	$14,019,000	Derek Jeter
$21,000,000	Vernon Wells	OF	$20,670,000	Matt Holliday
$25,000,000	Cliff Lee	P	$22,000,000	Matt Cain Felix Hernandez Justin Verlander Jered Weaver

For more on this year's Hot Stove transactions and Salary Projection analysis, check out the Hot Stove Page for former Week's Transactions.

Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Hot Stove - January 2013
Hot Stove - February 2013
Hot Stove - March 2013
Hot Stove - November 2013
Hot Stove - December 2013

Qualifying Offers
Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts were extended to 13 free agents. If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick. This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).

All Free Agents offered the Qualifying Offer rejected the offers and are free to negotiate with all teams, including their own.

See Whether SPRO has to see about whether they should have accepted and what they should be paid on our Hot Stove Qualifying Offer page.

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