Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Some of the most unique info on the Best Ever in baseball you'll get anywhere!

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Paperback

EBook
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Available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and your favorite online of offline bookstore.


Amazon Review

Entertaining and Informative

He loved it and started reading it at our Christmas party! It is hard to find something for someone who is a real baseball fan but this scored a home run. - 5 Stars.

This year, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition, rose to be the #5 Best Selling
Kindle Book about Baseball Stats.  The Best Ever Book has remained in the Top 25 for more than one year since its Kindle edition was originally published.

Check out the 5th Edition Press Release

Media Inquiries
Free media copy of the book available for baseball writers,
bloggers, and sports journalists.


Red Letter Days
for a Baseball Fan


First Year Player's Draft - June 5-7

Player Salaries

Average Major League player salaries rose 8.2% in 2014 to a record $3.95m.  Highest team payroll the Dodgers, overtaking the Yankees for the first time in 15 years.  Average salary for Dodgers $7.8m.

The 2014 Payroll $
1. Dodgers    $ 241,129,402
2. Yankees    $ 208,913,884
3. Phillies    $ 175,136,056
4. Tigers    $ 161,478,526
5. Red Sox   $ 154,380,395
6. Giants    $  146,364,108
7. Nationals    $ 133,866,735
8. Rangers    $ 130,855,596
9.  Blue Jays    $ 128,917,500
10. Angels    $ 126,314,500
11. D'backs  $ 111,030,333
12. Braves    $ 109,455,673
13. Reds    $ 109,290,771
14. Cardinals    $ 107,020,360
15. Orioles    $ 102,022,621
16. Rockies    $ 100,082,071
17. Brewers    $97,374,338
18. Royals    $ 90,481,500
19. Padres    $ 89,092,595
20. Mariners    $ 88,227,342
21. Mets    $ 82,491,453
22. Twins    $ 81,912,500
23.  Rays    $ 81,535,290
24.  White Sox   $ 80,392,815
25.  Indians    $ 79,895,800
26.  Pirates    $ 77,284,499
27.  Athletics    $ 76,930,900
28.  Cubs    $ 71,674,356
29.  Astros    $ 44,485,800
30.  Marlins    $ 40,565,400


Stat Geek Baseball's
Payroll Tidbits

Ave. Salaries By Position 2014
Catcher - $2,620,961
1st Base - $6,886,792
2nd Base - $4,300,645
3rd Base - $3,474,321
Shortstop - $3,663,368
Outfield - $4,592,538
Pitcher - $3,532,706
All - $3,936,922


Ave. Salaries By Service Time 2014

Under 1.000 Year - $551,070
1.000-1.171 - $620,195
2.000-2.121 - $603,156
Super 2 - 3.171 - $2,398,041
4.000-4.171 - $3,415,175
5.000-5.171 - $5,792,824

Free Agent - 6.171 - $7,461,178
7.000-7.171 - $7,593,716
8.000-8.171 - $11,616,934
9.000-9.171 - $6,672,631
10.000-10.171 - $12,378,440
11.000-11.171 - $8,096,542
12.000-12.171 - $9,145,955
13.000-13.171 - $16,050,000
14.000-14.171 - $9,824,060
15.000-15.171 - $8,144,977
16.000 and over - $4,373,770

Note: Super Two level for 2014 season is 2.122.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Super Two level for 2013 season was 2.139.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Salary source: USA Today Salary Database.


HomerunMonkey.com



Stat Geek Baseball

Baseball Evaluation Stats, Player Ratings, and Salary Projections


5,000 Hours of Research.  Now a Player Rating System that Mirrors the Way Real Baseball Values Its Players with Stats you can get Nowhere Else!



Predictions 2014

New Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting

Best Total Players Ever 1-20

Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Rankings - #1-100
Rankings - #101-200


Customers and Media
Stat Geek Baseball, Salary Projections 2014

2014 edition now published.  Check out how much your players are really worth.  Includes all players from 2009-2013.  PDF Download.

On Sale Now 1/2 Price

The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of April 14

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Jed Gyorko signs 5 year $35,000,000 contract extension for 2015-2019 with $13m club option and $1m buyout for 6th year with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Diego overpays for Gyorko.  Now we're just dipping over into does not make enough sense territory with these pre-arb deals.  Gyorko had a very good rookie season, but he wasn't Mike Trout, and he's started off 2014 batting 0.152.  Yeh, we know he plays in a notorious pitcher's park, but... his service time starts the year at 1.000, and San Diego has one more year before they're even looking toward arbitration.  There was no hurry, but they're willing to pay him $13m five years hence and they don't even know what they truly have. SPRO says one year extension, that's all, $554,000.  Now that's probably gonna be higher at the end of the year, but we would just want to wait till then.

Week of April 7

Free Agents
Ryan Roberts signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with $250,000 incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston gets bargain in Roberts.  SPRO $2,024,000.

Week of March 31

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Player Resigns with Club
Yunel Escobar signs 2 year extension for 2015-16 seasons at $13m with club option for 2017 year with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
 Tampa Bay gets bargain in Escobar.  SPRO for 2015-6 is $17,928,000.

Jason Kipnis signs 6 year $52,500,000 contract with club option $16.5m w/$2.5m buyout for 7th year with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cleveland pays market value for Kipnis.  Another in the long line of extensions to pre-arb players to get cost certainty, we don't know how confortable we are with the couple extra years, but the numbers are right in line for the four we like, SPRO of 4 years $21,836,000, so we're not gonna complain.  Just the cost of doing business in today's baseball world.

Chris Archer signs 6 year $25,000,000 contract with club options with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
 Tampa Bay overpays for Archer.  We like Chris Archer, as we do with many of these long term deal candidates with limited Major League service time (0.156 for Archer, under 1 year).  But, ... we're not okay with them.  SPRO says that a pitcher with only 150 innings of experience does not have a long enough track record to make this commitment and we don't think that waiting one more year, still within the pre-arbitration period would be too much to ask or too costly a wait as the track record lengthens.

Week of March 24

Free Agents
Chris Young signs 1 year $1,200,000 contract with $3,475,000 incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
 Seattle overpays for Young.  We don't usually think of an overpays for this slight an amount as SPRO says $850,000, but we wanted to make a point.  Small point, yes.  Young has had three of the last four years at a minimal or zero value for his club.  Probably time to prove your worth for one year from a durability standpoint, which is somewhat what they're doing here with the incentive structure.  Not sure if those incentives should be necessary.

Kevin Frandsen signs 1 year $900,000 contract with $700,000 incentives with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
 Washington pays market value for Frandsen.  SPRO $1,122,000, including salary and incentives.

Player Resigns with Club
Miguel Cabrera signs 8 year extension for 2016-23 seasons at $248m with 2 additional club option year.  Total with current deal 10 years $292m.
SPRO Analysis -
 Detroit overpays for Cabrera.  Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, with some small nod to Mike Trout, but the years are just too long.  Now we don't know if that slight downturn at the end of last season due to injury shows the start of a trend, but no matter, the 10 year term is 2 years too long for us.  SPRO 8 years $208,115,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Yan Gomes signs 6 year $23m extension with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cleveland overpays for Gomes.  Okay, getting a bit ridiculous.  Yan Gomes may end up being great, but ... there's also a reasonable chance at 1.083 years of Major League experience, that he ends up being less than that.  Too early, ... should at least wait till next year to see how he responds to full-time duty.  We can't get past an arbitration level contract of SPRO 2 years $1,107,000.

Mike Trout signs 6 year $144.5m extension for 2015-2020, $145.5m including 2014 season with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pays market value for Trout.  We think it's a bit high on the out year side, but won't criticize that because we also believe Trout may have been better off with a slightly shorter deal, taking to free agency a year or two earlier.  SPRO 7 years $128,796,000 for the best young player in the game.

Sterling Marte signs 6 year $51m w/two club option years with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
 Pittsburgh overpays for Marte.  Another in the new sign them early trend, but Marte is not long enough into his career for us to give him a long term deal.  We'd play the pre-arbitration year thing one by one and check track record longer first.  SPRO 2 year $1,133,000.

Week of March 17

Player Resigns with Club
David Ortiz signs extension for 2015 season at $16m with 2 additional vesting/club options for 2015/2016.  Current 2014 deal pays Ortiz $15m.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston gets bargain for Ortiz.  It's slight, the bargain that is, but it is a bargain for past production.  SPRO 3 years $52,464,000. SPRO 2014 - $16,891,000; 2015 - $17,480,000.  

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Jose Quintana signs 5 year $21m (if not arbitration eligitble 2015) to $26.8m contract with White Sox, including club options for $10.5m and $11.5m with $1m buyout for 6th and 7th years.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox overpay for Quintana.  Yes, it's the new trend, signing pre-arbitration players to long contracts, but it has lots of risk.  SPRO 3 year $7.565m.  We think the $ for that term on the signed deal are too high as well at $9.65m.

More

For even more contract projections, check out Stat Geek Baseball $SPRO, now on sale 1/2 price, $9.95.



Baseball Evaluation

Hall of Fame Veterans Ballot

Managers Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Cox are elected in a unanimous vote by the Hall of Fame Expansion Era veterans ballot.  Former players now on the veterans ballot did not get the required 75% vote to gain election, including Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin, Ted Simmons, Dave Parker, and Dan Quisenberry.  The ballot for each former era is now held once every three years.

See where the player
candidates rank among Hall of Fame positions in the
Best Ever Book


Frank Baker

Elected to Hall of Fame
January 8, 2014

Greg Maddux 97.2%
Tom Glavine 91.9%
Frank Thomas 83.7%

Elected to the Hall of Fame, the three players which Baseball Evaluation thought would make it.  Craig Biggio just misses, with 74.8% of the 75.0% needed for election.

Others Close:
Mike Piazza 62.2%
Jack Morris 61.5%
Jeff Bagwell 54.3%
Tim Raines 46.1%
Roger Clemens 35.4%
Barry Bonds 34.7%
Lee Smith 29.9%
Curt Schilling 29.2%
Edgar Martinez 25.2%
Alan Trammel 20.8%
Mike Mussina 20.3%
Jeff Kent 15.2%
Fred McGriff 11.7%
Mark McGwire 11.0%
Larry Walker 10.7%
Don Mattingly 8.2%
Sammy Sosa 7.2%

Others who did not get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot next year

Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Hideo Nomo, Rafael Palmeiro, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Mike Timlin

Jack Morris was in his final year on the BBWAA ballot; will be eligible for Veterans ballot in 2016

Who, What, When of HOF Class
Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position.  Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 855 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on March 31, 2014 was $3,936,922.  SPRO projections were $3,583,053.

There has been a significant change over the past year in salary structure, adding approximately 10% to salaries, predominantly for free agent year players.  Most of this will play out over the next several years as national and local television contract increases filter down to the player level.

And how does it compare now to the highest players paid per position.


High Salary
Actual
Who Position High Salary
SPRO
Who
$17,000,000 Brian McCann C $18,176,000 Yadier Molina
$25,000,000 Ryan Howard 1B $24,000,000 Miguel Cabrera
$24,000,000 Robinson Cano 2B $19,148,000 Robinson Cano
$19,329,646 David Wright 3B $16,983,000 Adrian Beltre
$16,000,000 Jose Reyes SS $11,258,000 Troy Tulowitski
$21,250,000 Matt Kemp OF $19,518,000 Jose Bautista
$28,000,000 Zach Grienke P $24,000,000 Justin Verlander
     

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Arbitration Player/Club Figures
Arbitration Checklist

New Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting


Best Total Players Ever 1-20
Best Total Players Ever 21-40
Best Total Players Ever 41-60
Best Total Players Ever 61-80
Best Total Players Ever 81-100

Final PEVA Ratings 2013


10/2 - 2013 Top 40 Pitchers
10/3 - 2013 Top 40 Batters
10/4 - 2013 Fielding
10/7 -  Team Power Rankings
10/8 - 2013 Team
and Individual Player Ratings


We see in our site searches and are asked from Time to Time, How is PEVA Calculated?  Well, it's complicated and hard to explain.

While we don't get into the pure numbers, perhaps this series of short blog articles from several years back can give you a better view of how and why.

1. The Durability Categories and Why PEVA Values Them So Much
2. Run Production, a Dependent Stat that influences other Stats
3. Wins/Saves. How Do They Figure In
4. Independent Production
5. Pitching & the Defensive Factor
6. Field Value, Controversial Component


Off Season News

Forbes Magazine
announces that for 2014, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in MLB at $2.5b; Dodgers 2nd at $2.088b and Tampa Bay last at $485m.

Associated Press
projects (3-25-14) that the Dodgers will have the highest payroll, surpassing the Yankees for the 1st time in 15 years, with a total payroll of $235m.  Houston pulls up in 30th place with a projected $44.5m total.

MVP Award
Andrew McCutchen, PIT (NL)
Miguel Cabrera, DET (AL)


Cy Young Award
Clayton Kershaw, LAN (NL)
Max Scherzer, DET (AL)


Rookie of Year Award
Jose Fernandez, MIA (NL)
Wil Myers, TBA (AL)

Gold Gloves Awarded
Gold Glove Winners for 2013
Check out our Fielding Ratings to See How They Compare

2013 Fielding

American League
C - Salvador Perez
1B - Eric Hosmer
2B - Dustin Pedroia
3B - Manny Machado
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Alex Gordon
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Shane Victorino
P - R.A. Dickey

National League
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Paul Goldschmidt
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Andrelton Simmons
LF - Carlos Gonzalez
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Gerardo Parra
P - Adam Wainwright

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Updated Best Ever Lists

Best Pitchers Ever Career
Best Batters Ever Career

Best Postseason Batting Careers
Best Postseason Pitching Careers

Franchise Best Ever Seasons

Best Ever Postseasons Bat
Best Ever Postseasons Pitch

Best Pitching Seasons
Best Relief Pitching Seasons
Best Batting Seasons


Now Read In the Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hugh Duffy

Stat Geek Baseball Blog  
  
Who, What, When About This Year's HOF Class



MLB News

Understading MLB Options

Moving players from the Majors to the Minors can be a confusing thing for most fans, i.e. how long can a player on the 40 man roster be moved up and down without requiring waivers?  For the most part, a player may be moved up and down for three seasons once they are first placed on the 40 man roster.  That is, assigned to the minors from spring training through the year as many times as wanted for those 3 seasons.  A little known fact, however, is the 5 minor league season rule, allowing a player with less than 5 FULL minor league seasons a 4th year of options.  A full minor league season is defined as a season over 90 days long, i.e. not including short season leagues.

Player Salaries

2012-16 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Payroll implications included $480,000 minimum salary in 2012, rising to $490,000 in 2013, then $500,000, with cost of living adjustments for 2015-16.  Qualifying offer now used to determine Type A Free Agents and draft pick compensation.  In first year with new system, a $13.3 million one year offer had to be offered to player to receive pick.


Explaining the Stats of BaseballEvaluation

Our New Stats Include

PEVA

Individual Player Rating for
each season

SPRO
Salary Projection data for
future years

EXPEQ
Experience Equivalent to
Major League Service Time.

For More Info
About Our Stats
 
PEVA Player Rating Boxscore
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

Comments
Eddie Collins

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Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition

Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition
Updated through the 2013 postseason
Baseball
Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2014 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved.  The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.  Historic baseball statistics were provided courtesy of the Sean Lahman Database and Baseball-Databank.org.  Other statistic sources used include Baseball-reference.com & the Chuck Roscium Catcher Database.
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