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The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of December 2

Free Agent Players
Rajai Davis signs 2 year $8-9m (estimated) contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit overpays for Davis. If the numbers above are correct, it's an overpay for a player that may be starting to wane. SPRO 2 years $6,005,000.

Felipe Paulino signs 1 year $1.75m contract with White Sox, including team option for $4m for 2nd year w/$250,000 buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox overpay for Paulino. He didn't pitch in 2013 and we're not sure why a premium should be payed to players with a limited market. SPRO $1,185,000.

Chad Qualls signs 2 year $6m contract with Astros, including team option for $3.5m for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis - Houston pay market value for Qualls. Wouldn't have gone for the extra year or two. SPRO 1 year $2,767,000.

Carlos Beltran signs 3 year $45m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Beltran. They say he took three million less to play in New York. Well, that's what SPRO says, too, with a 3 year $48,268,000 value. And it's possible that Beltran outperforms Ellsbury.

Nate McLouth signs 2 year $$10.75m contract with Nationals, including team option fo third years at $6.5m.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for McLouth. A bit high coming off a good year, but within range. SPRO 2 years $9,343,000.

J.P. Arencibia signs 1 year $1.8m contract with Rangers, including $300,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Texas gets bargain in Arencibia. Non-tendered by Toronto, because they were afraid of an arbitration number, Texas picked up a young slugging catcher/dh who had a terrible season last year. But he's only 27 and under team control for three years if they want it. SPRO $2,501,000.

Garrett Jones signs 2 year $7-$8m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Jones. Nothing spectacular and coming off a down year, but he's pretty durable and they don't have much in the way of offensive players in Miami. SPRO 2 years $12,446,000.

Robinson Cano signs 10 year $240m contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle overpays for Cano. Well, this is one deal, while too high, of course, has some logic to it. Seattle wants to get relevant again and fill seats. They want to prove to the rest of baseball that they're still in the league. Waalah. They are. Will this work out in the end, at 41 years of age? Doubt it. SPRO 6 years $121,987,000.

Curtis Granderson signs 4 year $60m contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis - New York Mets overpay for Granderson. Another overpay that makes sense. Last year, you couldn't get Granderson for under $18m per; this year it's probably worth near the SPRO of 4 years and $46,095,000. So they settled for somewhere in the middle. There's a pretty good chance that Granderson rebounds from this odd injury year and he'll be worth the contract.

Scott Feldman signs 3 year $30m contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston overpays for Feldman. Once again trying to prove they're not in the minors, the Astros have decided Feldman might help the kiddie corps compete. He did last year, but has not been consistent enough over his career to warrant this. SPRO 3 years $17,094,000. And with him, they're still not going to be competitive now.

Rafael Furcal signs 1 year $3m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami overpays for Furcal. It's not 2005. He's 36. There's few places where a starting job would be his to compete for. SPRO $1,766,000.

Ronald Belisario signs 1 year $3m contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox overpay for Belisario. Not bad, but curious to why clubs are paying free agents caused by a non-tender more than they'd get in arbitration. Maybe even curioser, in this case, is why the Dodgers would non-tender an effective reliever. Oh, that's right, they have a case of the not a big name, we don't want him. SPRO $2,265,000.

Willie Bloomquist signs 2 year $5.8m contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle overpays for Bloomquist. He's been slowly going downhill the last few years in effectiveness, but he may have gotten a homecoming bonus. SPRO 1 year $1,634,000.

Wil Nieves signs 1 year $1.125m contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Nieves. SPRO $1,202,000.

Jacoby Ellsbury signs 7 year $153m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Ellsbury. Don't get us wrong, we like this guy, just not enough to pretend he's consistently one of the top players in the game. Ellsbury has the tendency to ping pong years, usually due to injury. Just had a good one, which followed a bad one, which followed a great one, which followed a bad one, which followed a good one. You get the picture. Not going to be worth this in our estimation. SPRO 4 years $49,814,000.

Kelly Johnson signs 1 year $3m contract with Yankees. (pending)
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees get bargain in Johnson. SPRO $4,111,000.

A.J. Pierzynski signs 1 year $8.25m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Pierzynski. A.J. apprently turned down three year deals to come here and he's worth this per year number over that span. SPRO for 2014, $8,663,000.

Joe Nathan signs 2 year $20m contract with Tigers, including team option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit gets bargain in Nathan. Yes, he'd old, but he's really been good the last two years. SPRO 3 years $37,689,000.

Wesley Wright signs 1 year $1.424m contract with Chicago Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs pays market value for Wright. A little high for a non-tender, but in the ballpark. SPRO $1,163,000.

Edward Mujica signs 2 year $9.5m contract with Red Sox. (Pending)
SPRO Analysis - Boston gets bargain in Mujica. First off, we're surprised Mujica is not going somewhere he can close; anywhere, in fact. Yes, he waned down the stretch and was replaced in that role, but overall he's been very good the last couple years. SPRO 2 years $15,065,000, but that only works if he's in an expanded role that includes closing.

Jarred Saltalamacchia signs 3 year $21m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami pays market value for Saltalamacchia. Finally a signing that makes more than a bit of sense. In fact, it's even slightly lower than the SPRO value. SPRO 3 years $22,122,000.

Scott Kazmir signs 2 year $22m contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Kazmir. Well, this might be the worst contract so far. Coming off one decent year after two years where he pitched a total of 1.7 IP, the Athletics have decided it doesn't matter if he has a history of concerns, or that in his past good year, 2013, he barely pitched over 5 innings per start. He'd have to have two good years in a row to, ... well, ... even if he does in 2014 what he did in 2013, he's a $6m per year pitcher. SPRO $2,756,000.

Dionar Navarro signs 2 year $8m contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Navarro. Change of use; Toronto sees him as a starter, explains most of the reason why we say this, although another, the fact that 2013 was the first in four years that Navarro had 200 AB's, does create some cause for concern. SPRO $2,883,000 for one year.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Mike Napoli signs 2 year $32m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpay for Napoli. He got them a World Series ring and knocked in alot of RBI, but we think this is an overreach, a value more in line with an extra year. SPRO 3 years $29,730,000.

Hiroki Kuroda signs 1 year $16m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Kuroda. Really worth more than a one year deal, but didn't really want that. SPRO $14,797,000 but with two extra years added.

Juan Carlos Oviedo signs 1 year $1.5m contract with Marlins, including $1.4m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Miami overpays for Oviedo. Maybe there should be a rule. If a guy isn't sure what his name is (used to be Leo Nunez) and hasn't pitched for two years, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. There's doubt here for us. SPRO $988,000.

Brian Wilson signs 1 year $10m contract with Dodgers, including $8.5m player option for 2015.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Wilson. Huge. Hard to believe. They just paid a pitcher, who pitched less than 20 innings last season between the regular and postseason, and at most will pitch 70 in a good year, to possibly be a setup man at $10m per year. Que lastima! SPRO 1 year $4,992,000.

Paul Konerko signs 1 year $2.5m contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox gets bargain in Konerko. Yes, his stats are waning over the past three years, but, he's going to be worth it, and we wouldn't be surprised if Konerko plays more than folks think. SPRO $5,681,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Ryan Webb signs 2 year $4.5m contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Webb. SPRO doesn't add the second year, but if it did, the number here are sensible. SPRO has 2014 at $1,641,000. Webb gives consistent innings and seems to be on the track to improve.

Ryan Hanigan signs 3 year $10,750,000 contract with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay pays market value for Hanigan. A bit high and too long, but not bad. SPRO would only pay for one year at $2,057,000.

Kevin Frandsen signs 1 year $900,000 contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Frandsen. Actually a small bargain with SPRO at $1,118,000.

Check out the Hot Stove Page for former Month's Transactions.

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players this off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position. Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 752 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on April 8, 2013 was $3,980,093. SPRO projections were $3,968,545. That's a deviation of only 3 tenth of one percent.

And how does it compare to the highest players paid per position.

High Salary Actual	Who	Position	High Salary SPRO	Who
$23,000,000	Joe Mauer	C	$18,524,000	Joe Mauer
$23,125,000	Mark Teixeira	1B	$22,000,000	Prince Fielder
$15,285,714	Chase Utley	2B	$21,982,000	Robinson Cano
$29,000,000	Alex Rodriguez	3B	$22,000,000	Miguel Cabrera
$16,729,000	Derek Jeter	SS	$14,019,000	Derek Jeter
$21,000,000	Vernon Wells	OF	$20,670,000	Matt Holliday
$25,000,000	Cliff Lee	P	$22,000,000	Matt Cain Felix Hernandez Justin Verlander Jered Weaver

For more on this year's Hot Stove transactions and Salary Projection analysis, check out the Hot Stove Page for former Week's Transactions.

Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Hot Stove - January 2013
Hot Stove - February 2013
Hot Stove - March 2013

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