Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
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Entertaining and Informative

He loved it and started reading it at our Christmas party! It is hard to find something for someone who is a real baseball fan but this scored a home run. - 5 Stars.

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Red Letter Days
for a Baseball Fan


MLB Waiver Trade Deadline - August 31
Active Rosters Expand - September 1

Player Salaries

Average Major League player salaries rose 8.2% in 2014 to a record $3.95m.  Highest team payroll the Dodgers, overtaking the Yankees for the first time in 15 years.  Average salary for Dodgers $7.8m.

The 2014 Payroll $
1. Dodgers    $ 241,129,402
2. Yankees    $ 208,913,884
3. Phillies    $ 175,136,056
4. Tigers    $ 161,478,526
5. Red Sox   $ 154,380,395
6. Giants    $  146,364,108
7. Nationals    $ 133,866,735
8. Rangers    $ 130,855,596
9.  Blue Jays    $ 128,917,500
10. Angels    $ 126,314,500
11. D'backs  $ 111,030,333
12. Braves    $ 109,455,673
13. Reds    $ 109,290,771
14. Cardinals    $ 107,020,360
15. Orioles    $ 102,022,621
16. Rockies    $ 100,082,071
17. Brewers    $97,374,338
18. Royals    $ 90,481,500
19. Padres    $ 89,092,595
20. Mariners    $ 88,227,342
21. Mets    $ 82,491,453
22. Twins    $ 81,912,500
23.  Rays    $ 81,535,290
24.  White Sox   $ 80,392,815
25.  Indians    $ 79,895,800
26.  Pirates    $ 77,284,499
27.  Athletics    $ 76,930,900
28.  Cubs    $ 71,674,356
29.  Astros    $ 44,485,800
30.  Marlins    $ 40,565,400


Stat Geek Baseball's
Payroll Tidbits

Ave. Salaries By Position 2014
Catcher - $2,620,961
1st Base - $6,886,792
2nd Base - $4,300,645
3rd Base - $3,474,321
Shortstop - $3,663,368
Outfield - $4,592,538
Pitcher - $3,532,706
All - $3,936,922


Ave. Salaries By Service Time 2014

Under 1.000 Year - $551,070
1.000-1.171 - $620,195
2.000-2.121 - $603,156
Super 2 - 3.171 - $2,398,041
4.000-4.171 - $3,415,175
5.000-5.171 - $5,792,824

Free Agent - 6.171 - $7,461,178
7.000-7.171 - $7,593,716
8.000-8.171 - $11,616,934
9.000-9.171 - $6,672,631
10.000-10.171 - $12,378,440
11.000-11.171 - $8,096,542
12.000-12.171 - $9,145,955
13.000-13.171 - $16,050,000
14.000-14.171 - $9,824,060
15.000-15.171 - $8,144,977
16.000 and over - $4,373,770

Note: Super Two level for 2014 season is 2.122.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Super Two level for 2013 season was 2.139.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Salary source: USA Today Salary Database.


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Explaining the Stats of BaseballEvaluation

Our New Stats Include

PEVA

Individual Player Rating for
each season

SPRO
Salary Projection data for
future years

EXPEQ
Experience Equivalent to
Major League Service Time.

For More Info
About Our Stats
 



Stat Geek Baseball

Baseball Evaluation Stats, Player Ratings, and Salary Projections


5,000 Hours of Research.  Now a Player Rating System that Mirrors the Way Real Baseball Values Its Players with Stats you can get Nowhere Else!



Predictions 2014

New Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting

Best Total Players Ever 1-20

Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Rankings - #1-100
Rankings - #101-200


Customers and Media
Stat Geek Baseball, Salary Projections 2014

2014 edition now published.  Check out how much your players are really worth.  Includes all players from 2009-2013.  PDF Download.  Press Release

On Sale Now 1/2 Price

The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of June 2

Free Agent Contracts
Kendrys Morales signs 1 year $7,500,000 contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota overpays for Morales.  Morales signed this late deal after the draft, allowing Minnesota to keep its #1 draft pick for this Qualifying Offer player.  But it's still not worth it.  This contract, with its prorated full season value of $12 million, is actually about where Morales should be full term.  He's really only worth $7.5m per year, due to his injury past.  See our Qualifying Offer page for more details.

Week of May 12

Free Agent Contracts
Randy Wolf signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with incentives with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami gets bargain in Wolf.  It's a bit hard to put a true value on this as we're now six weeks into the season, but had Wolf signed prior to the season, SPRO was stating $3,301,000 (which includes all incentives), so take that for what it's worth.  Prior to not pitching last year, Wolf had been remarkably durable, which is proving to be a very valuable commodity in 2014.

Week of April 28

Arbitration Contracts
Chirs Johnson signs 3 year $23,500,000 extension for 2015-17 with $10m club option and $1m buyout.  2014 season salary is $4.75m wit Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta pays market value for Johnson.  SPRO 3 years $16,6000,000, but okay with the additional year now that 2014 has begun.

Week of April 14

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Sean Doolittle signs 5 year $10,500,000/$13,750,000 (if arbitraiton eligible in 2015) contract extension for 2014-2018 with two options years at $6m/$6.5m and $500,000 buyout with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland overpays for Doolittle.  It's not an overpay as far as number, but it is as far as years.  At 1.122 years of Major League Service Time, Oakland's taking a significant gamble that he'll continue on this good career path, and if true, and he becomes their closer, they get a bargain.  But if not?  Too long a deal.  SPRO 2 years $2,445,000.

Jed Gyorko signs 5 year $35,000,000 contract extension for 2015-2019 with $13m club option and $1m buyout for 6th year with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Diego overpays for Gyorko.  Now we're just dipping over into does not make enough sense territory with these pre-arb deals.  Gyorko had a very good rookie season, but he wasn't Mike Trout, and he's started off 2014 batting 0.152.  Yeh, we know he plays in a notorious pitcher's park, but... his service time starts the year at 1.000, and San Diego has one more year before they're even looking toward arbitration.  There was no hurry, but they're willing to pay him $13m five years hence and they don't even know what they truly have. SPRO says one year extension, that's all, $554,000.  Now that's probably gonna be higher at the end of the year, but we would just want to wait till then.


Week of April 7

Free Agents
Ryan Roberts signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with $250,000 incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  Boston gets bargain in Roberts.  SPRO $2,024,000.


More

For even more contract projections, check out Stat Geek Baseball $SPRO, now on sale 1/2 price, $9.95.


Baseball Evaluation

Hall of Fame Veterans Ballot

Managers Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Cox are elected in a unanimous vote by the Hall of Fame Expansion Era veterans ballot.  Former players now on the veterans ballot did not get the required 75% vote to gain election, including Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin, Ted Simmons, Dave Parker, and Dan Quisenberry.  The ballot for each former era is now held once every three years.

See where the player
candidates rank among Hall of Fame positions in the
Best Ever Book


Frank Baker

Elected to Hall of Fame
January 8, 2014

Greg Maddux 97.2%
Tom Glavine 91.9%
Frank Thomas 83.7%

Elected to the Hall of Fame, the three players which Baseball Evaluation thought would make it.  Craig Biggio just misses, with 74.8% of the 75.0% needed for election.

Others Close:
Mike Piazza 62.2%
Jack Morris 61.5%
Jeff Bagwell 54.3%
Tim Raines 46.1%
Roger Clemens 35.4%
Barry Bonds 34.7%
Lee Smith 29.9%
Curt Schilling 29.2%
Edgar Martinez 25.2%
Alan Trammel 20.8%
Mike Mussina 20.3%
Jeff Kent 15.2%
Fred McGriff 11.7%
Mark McGwire 11.0%
Larry Walker 10.7%
Don Mattingly 8.2%
Sammy Sosa 7.2%

Others who did not get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot next year

Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Hideo Nomo, Rafael Palmeiro, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Mike Timlin

Jack Morris was in his final year on the BBWAA ballot; will be eligible for Veterans ballot in 2016

Who, What, When of HOF Class
Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position.  Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 855 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on March 31, 2014 was $3,936,922.  SPRO projections were $3,583,053.

There has been a significant change over the past year in salary structure, adding approximately 10% to salaries, predominantly for free agent year players.  Most of this will play out over the next several years as national and local television contract increases filter down to the player level.

And how does it compare now to the highest players paid per position.


High Salary
Actual
Who Position High Salary
SPRO
Who
$17,000,000 Brian McCann C $18,176,000 Yadier Molina
$25,000,000 Ryan Howard 1B $24,000,000 Miguel Cabrera
$24,000,000 Robinson Cano 2B $19,148,000 Robinson Cano
$19,329,646 David Wright 3B $16,983,000 Adrian Beltre
$16,000,000 Jose Reyes SS $11,258,000 Troy Tulowitski
$21,250,000 Matt Kemp OF $19,518,000 Jose Bautista
$28,000,000 Zach Grienke P $24,000,000 Justin Verlander
     

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First Year Player Draft Round #1

1    HOU    LHP Brady Aiken  2    MIA    RHP Tyler Kolek  3    CWS    LHP Carlos Rodon
4    CHC    C Kyle Schwarber  5    MIN    SS Nick Gordon  6    SEA    OF Alex Jackson
7    PHI    RHP Aaron Nola  8    COL    LHP Kyle Freeland  9    TOR    RHP Jeff Hoffman
10    NYM    OF Michael Conforto  11    TOR    C Max Pentecost  12    MIL    LHP Kodi Medeiros
13    SD    SS Trea Turner  14    SF    RHP Tyler Beede  15    LAA    LHP Sean Newcomb
16    ARI    RHP Touki Toussaint  17    KC    LHP Brandon Finnegan  
18    WAS    RHP Erick Fedde  19    CIN    RHP Nick Howard  20    TB    1B Casey Gillaspie
21    CLE    OF Bradley Zimmer  22    LAD    RHP Grant Holmes  23    DET    OF Derek Hill
24    PIT    SS Cole Tucker  25    OAK    3B Matt Chapman  26    BOS    SS Michael Chavis
27    STL    RHP Luke Weaver  28    KC    LHP Foster Griffin  29    CIN    SS Alex Blandino
30    TEX    RHP Luis Ortiz  31    CLE    LHP Justus Sheffield
32    ATL    OF Braxton Davidson  33    BOS    RHP Michael Kopech  
34    STL    RHP Jack Flaherty

Source: MLB.com
     
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2014 All-Star Game Participants

American League Starters

Matt Weiters, BAL, C
Miguel Cabrera, DET, 1B
Robinson Cano, SEA, 2B
Derek Jeter, NYA, SS
Josh Donaldson, OAK, 3B
Jose Bautista, TOR, OF
Mike Trout, LAA, OF
Adam Jones, BAL, OF
Nelson Cruz, BAL, DH

Reserves
Salvador Perez, KC, C
Jose Abreu, CHA, 1B
Jose Altuve, HOU, 2B
Alexie Ramirez, CHA, SS
Adrian Beltre, TEX, 3B
Michael Brantley, CLE, OF
Yoenis Cespedes, OAK, OF
Alex Gordon, KCA, OF
Victor Martinez, DET, DH
Derek Norris, OAK, C
Brandon Moss, OAK, OF
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR, 1B
Kurt Suzuki, MIN, C

Masahiro Tanaka, NYA, P
Scott Kazmir, OAK, P
Felix Hernandez, SEA, P
Yu Darvish, TEX, P
Mark Buerhle, TOR, P
Scott Doolittle, OAK, P
Greg Holland, KCA, P
Dellin Betances, NYA, P
David Price, NYA, P
Matt Scherzer, DET, P
Glen Perkins, MIN, P
Jon Lester, BOS, P

National League Starters

Yadier Molina, SLN, C
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI, 1B
Chase Utley, PHI, 2B
Troy Tulowitski, COL, SS
Aramis Ramirez, MIL, 3B
Carlos Gomez, MIL, OF
Yasiel Puig, LAN, OF
Andrew McCutcheon, PIT, OF

Reserves
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL, C
Freddie Freeman, ATL, 1B
Dee Gordon, LAN, SS
Todd Frazier, CIN, 3B
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA, OF
Charlie Blackmon, COL, OF
Hunter Pence, SFN, OF
Devin Mesoraco, CIN, C
Daniel Murphy, NYN, 2B
Matt Carpenter, SLN, OF
Josh Harrison, PIT, IF/OF

Johnny Cueto, CIN, P
Adam Wainwright, SLN, P
Clayton Kershaw, LAN, P
Madison Bumgardner, SFN, P
Jeff Samardja, CHN, P
Craig Kimbrel, ATL, P
Julio Teheran, ATL, P
Aroldis Chapman, CIN, P
Francisco Rodriguez, MIL, P
Zach Greinke, LAN, P
Tyler Ross, SDN, P
Pat Neshek, SLN, P
Tony Watson, PIT, P

TeePossible T-Shirts for Humor, Sports, & History Fans

Arbitration Player/Club Figures
Arbitration Checklist

New Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting


Best Total Players Ever 1-20
Best Total Players Ever 21-40
Best Total Players Ever 41-60
Best Total Players Ever 61-80
Best Total Players Ever 81-100

Final PEVA Ratings 2013


10/2 - 2013 Top 40 Pitchers
10/3 - 2013 Top 40 Batters
10/4 - 2013 Fielding
10/7 -  Team Power Rankings
10/8 - 2013 Team
and Individual Player Ratings

     

We see in our site searches and are asked from Time to Time, How is PEVA Calculated?  Well, it's complicated and hard to explain.

While we don't get into the pure numbers, perhaps this series of short blog articles from several years back can give you a better view of how and why.

1. The Durability Categories and Why PEVA Values Them So Much

2. Run Production, a Dependent Stat that influences other Stats

3. Wins/Saves. How Do They Figure In

4. Independent Production

5. Pitching & the Defensive Factor

6. Field Value, Controversial Component


MLB News

New MLB Commissioner
Rob Manfred is elected as the 10th commissioner in MLB history when he was elected by the owners 8-14-2014 to succeed Bud Selig.  His election occurred on approximately the 6th ballot.

Forbes Magazine
announces that for 2014, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in MLB at $2.5b; Dodgers 2nd at $2.088b and Tampa Bay last at $485m.

Associated Press
projects (3-25-14) that the Dodgers will have the highest payroll, surpassing the Yankees for the 1st time in 15 years, with a total payroll of $235m.  Houston pulls up in 30th place with a projected $44.5m total.

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Updated Best Ever Lists

Best Pitchers Ever Career
Best Batters Ever Career

Best Postseason Batting Careers
Best Postseason Pitching Careers

Franchise Best Ever Seasons

Best Ever Postseasons Bat
Best Ever Postseasons Pitch

Best Pitching Seasons
Best Relief Pitching Seasons
Best Batting Seasons


Now Read In the Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hugh Duffy

Stat Geek Baseball Blog  
  
What is Hanley Ramirez Really Worth?

New blog post 5/16



MLB News

Understading MLB Options

Moving players from the Majors to the Minors can be a confusing thing for most fans, i.e. how long can a player on the 40 man roster be moved up and down without requiring waivers?  For the most part, a player may be moved up and down for three seasons once they are first placed on the 40 man roster.  That is, assigned to the minors from spring training through the year as many times as wanted for those 3 seasons.  A little known fact, however, is the 5 minor league season rule, allowing a player with less than 5 FULL minor league seasons a 4th year of options.  A full minor league season is defined as a season over 90 days long, i.e. not including short season leagues.

Player Salaries

2012-16 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Payroll implications included $480,000 minimum salary in 2012, rising to $490,000 in 2013, then $500,000, with cost of living adjustments for 2015-16.  Qualifying offer now used to determine Type A Free Agents and draft pick compensation.  In first year with new system, a $13.3 million one year offer had to be offered to player to receive pick.


PEVA Player Rating Boxscore
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average



 
Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition

Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition
Updated through the 2013 postseason
Baseball
Evaluation Scoreboard
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Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
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Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2014 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved.  The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.  Historic baseball statistics were provided courtesy of the Sean Lahman Database and Baseball-Databank.org.  Other statistic sources used include Baseball-reference.com & the Chuck Roscium Catcher Database.
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