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Baseball's

 2010 Free Agent

Salary Projection

Newsletter


Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player



Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing club (if former club offered arbitration).  Former club also receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type A Free Agent player.

Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf




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2010 Free Agents


Stat Geek Baseball


Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis


Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2010 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal.  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter, and the upcoming Stat Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2009 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2010 Contracts  2010 Free Agents
November Signings  December Signings
   
Free Agent Headline
Alex Cora signs $2,000,000 deal to remain with New York Mets, including $1 million in performance incentives and option for $2 million in 2011 that guarantees with 80 starts in 2010.

SPRO Analysis
Mets overpay for Cora.  What are these GMs thinking?  Paying $2 million for what they hope to be a light hitting backup infielder. Now if Cora becomes a regular, so be it, but even with a semi-regular role last year due to injuries, Cora only slugged at a 0.310 clip.  If you want a blueprint for finishing in 4th place, Cora at that number seems like a good fit.  SPRO rates Cora's salary at $1,015,000 for 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Jason LaRue signs $950,000 deal to stay with Cardinals.  There are bonus of $50,000 available if LaRue starts 60 games.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals pay market value for LaRue.  He's a backup catcher who has seen better days, say 2005, but this contract is appropriate for a veteran backup to handle a pitching staff once or twice a week.  SPRO projections pegged LaRue's value at $850,000.

Free Agent Headline
Alex Gonzalez signs $2,750,000 deal with Toronto, including $2,500,000 club option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays pay market value for Gonzalez.  Although they shouldn't be expecting the Gonzalez of several years ago, Alex is worth the money being paid.  The SPRO salary projection numbers include a 2 year $5,436,000 deal ($2,671,000 in 2010), right in the wheelhouse of the contract given by the Jays.
Free Agent Headline
John McDonald signs 2 year $3 million deal to stay with the Toronto Blue Jays.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays overpay McDonald.  Unless there's been a change of use from backup to parttime starter with Gonzalez, the money spent over two years here seem too high.  McDonald is the quintessential backup who fields okay, can't really steal you a base too often, can't hit, and doesn't really even give you a good at bat.  Think we're overstating this.  Career OBP of 0.276.  OBP, not Batting Average.  There's got to be somebody in the minor leagues who can do that at the Major League Minumum and field a bit, too.  SPRO contract projection, only $850,000 for 1 year.
Free Agent Headline
Andruw Jones signs $500,000 deal with $1,000,000 in performance incentives with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox get bargain in Jones.  It's been awhile now since Andruw Jones was considered a candidate for the Hall of Fame, although his 2009 season in Texas was a step in the right direction back to helping a team.  That's not saying nearly as much as it should, but if Andruw could ever get his mojo and intent back to anywhere near the halcion days with Atlanta, he could be a steal.  Jones is still only 32 years of age.  SPRO salary projection lists his value for 2009 at $2,327,000.
Free Agent Headline
Omar Vizquel signs $1.375 million deal to be a backup infielder with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value for Vizquel.  We're not gong to quibble here.  Omar has been such a valuable shortstop, particularly on the defensive end, for so long, that an extra couple dollars for the coaching aspect of Vizquel at 42 years of age is well worth the money.  Even though Vizquel will not likely be that much better than the AAA infielder you could mine from the minors on the diamond, his value goes beyond that.  The SPRO contract projection suggests an $850,000 salary, but we're okay with this sign at above that number.
Free Agent Contract
John Grabow becomes first signing, staying with the Chicago Cubs for a $7.5 million, 2 year contract.

SPRO Analysis
Cubs overpay Grabow.  Although Grabow was an effective reliever in 2009, he was not as good as in his 2008 season.  Considering his Type A Free Agent status, it was unlikely that Grabow would have signed early with another team for the amount of money Chicago committed, at least until the Cubs declared whether he would have been offered arbitration by the December 1 deadline and warranted a 1st/2nd Round pick in compensation.  Grabow was worth $5.5 million over 2 years in the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection system.
Free Agent Contract
Tim Hudson remain with Atlanta Braves, signing 3 year $28 million deal.

SPRO Analysis
Braves overpay Hudson.  One of the better pitchers of the last decade has been involved in a not so slow decline due to health reasons over the past three years, declining from a 23.248 PEVA rating to 9.160 to 0.861.  This is not a good sign for a pitcher who will begin 2010 at 34 years of age.  While we think Hudson will rebound in 2010 and deserves a three year contract, we think the numbers are too high.  SPRO projection are for 3 years @ $19,453,000.
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History
Free Agents who came to Market November 20.

Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing club (if former club offered arbitration).  Former club also receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type A Free Agent player.

Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf.

Type A Free Agents (Offered Arbitration 12-01-2009)
Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, Matt Holiday, John Lackey, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner.

Type B Free Agents (Offered Arbitration 12-01-2009)
Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, Gregg Zaun, Ivan Rodriguez, Marlon Byrd, Rod Barajas, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Carl Pavano, Justin Duchscherer, Brian Shouse, Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro. 

Free Agent Contract
Jack Wilson gets $10 million over 2 years with Seattle Mariners.

SPRO Analysis
Mariners greatly overpay Wilson.  Always touted for his defense, he should now be touted for getting this contract.  We're not sure what Seattle saw in those 100 at bats last year after being traded there from Pittsburgh, but it must have been something a whole lot more special than the 0.224 AVE, 0.263 OBP, and 0.299 SLG numbers. At this point in his career, Wilson may be no better than a good reserve player, but the contract says starter.  SPRO projections show a 2 year contract in the $6 million range would have been more appropriate.
Free Agent Contract
Ken Griffey, Jr. remains with Mariners at base salary of $2.35 million with potential for $1.55 million in bonus payments based on plate appearances, home attendance, and whether Griffey goes on the disabled list.

SPRO Analysis
Mariners get good deal with Griffey.  Although Griffey batted only 0.214 in 2009, he got walks and provided a left-handed power bat for over 400 plate appearances.  If Griffey can do the same in 2010, and perhaps even one year further than that, we think the Mariners got that good deal.  The SPRO salary projection pegged Griffey at $4,346,000 (SPRO includes all base and bonus payments) and even would have extended Griffey for a second year, which may or may not have been the preference for Griffey or Seattle.

Shibe Park, Philadelphia, baseballevaluation.com     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: 2009 statistics through October 6, 2009.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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