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Arbitration Eligible,
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

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Free Agent 2010-11 Contract Analysis


Bill Hall  
2010-11 Free Agents

Analysis

Okay, here's the consternation with Hall.  Just what are you getting here?  He's only 31 years old, so the wane really shouldn't have taken over his career, but it seems like it might have.  At one time, back in the days of 2005 and 2006 in Milwaukee, Hall had plus starter written all over him, with years of 17 HR and 62 RBI followed by 35 HR and 85 RBI, with that last year added up to a very respectable PEVA rating of 11.905. Pretty good stuff at 27 years of age.  But now it's four years later and what we're seeing is a platoon player, and one, we're not real sure whether a playoff contending team should want.  

Whoa, there, ... maybe we're jumping to the wrong conclusion and are just plain wrong about that.  Sure, Hall is a low batting average and low OBP guy at this point in his career and someone you're not looking at as an everyday starter, but he did hit 18 HR for Boston in 2010 and played every outfield and infield position except first base (and he can probably do that).  Perhaps this is just the type of hitter/fielder a contending team needs, as long as the price is right.

But what about that price.  And just what role would that contending team be talking about?  Let's assume he's a platoon player again, one who will be getting 300 to 400 ABs.

PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY
Bill Hall Year
4.538 2007
3.733 2008
2.459 2009
3.093 2010
3.031 RAVE

Last year, Hall was paid $8,525,000, but he's looking at a significant drop from that number in 2010.  SPRO Salary Projections state that he's looking like a $3,000,000 player now, and that's only because there's still a bit of a look back five years quality and hope that he can repeat some of those headier days.

Personally, we're still a little conflicted on whether Hall's worth those numbers and might be more comfortable in the $2.5 million range.  But SPRO is holding out hope.  It will be interesting to see just what type of team, a playoff contender or just one looking for production from a cheaper alternative, will take that risk, and whether it will pay off.

SPRO PROJECTIONS - Bill Hall

2011 - $3,021,000
2012 - $3,127,000
Total Contract - 2 years @ 6,148,000


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Note: 2010 statistics through October 12, 2010.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2010 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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