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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

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Free Agent 2010-11 Contract Analysis


Jayson Werth  
2010-11 Free Agents

Analysis

There's a pretty good consensus around baseball circles that Jayson Werth will gain a pretty fine payday this offseason and the bellweathers for his services is likely to be a contract between that of Jayson Bay and Matt Holliday.  And that's pretty good territory, but is it territory that a baseball general manager should play in, and which of those two players does Werth really compare better to.

Jayson Bay signed a four year $66 million contract ($16.5m per season) with the New York Mets in 2009 that included a fifth year option at $17 million in 2014.  Bay had been pretty darn productive in the years prior to this season, but had a poor first season with the Mets mainly due to injury.  

Matt Holliday signed a seven year $120 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009 that included an eighth year option at $17 million as well.  Holliday was the preeiminent position player out there last year and this contract, at an annual rate of $17 million per season, reflected that.

With those two contracts, it seems as baseball was saying that these were two players with similar skills and value.  Bay was 31 years old at the end of 2009; Holliday was 29 years old, two years younger.  Werth will be 31 years old at the end of this year.

For the four years prior, Bay had accumulated 123 home runs and knocked in 413 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE of 17.062; Holliday had bashed 119 home runs, and knocked in 448 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE at the end of 2009 of 19.057.   (RAVE is a 3 year adjusted number taking the most recent year at 50%, 1 year back 30%, and 2 years back at 20%.)  

PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY
Bay Holliday Werth
22.511 2006 18.861 2007 4.523
7.133 2007 25.713 2008 9.727
18.155 2008 15.333 2009 19.511
20.378 2009 18.627 2010 20.813
17.062 RAVE 19.056 RAVE 18.205

Now what about Jayson Werth.  For the four years prior to this offseason, Werth had hit 95 home runs and knocked in 300 runs, and had a 3 year RAVE of 18.205.  So yes, he does seem to have a value in between those two players.  Now Werth had other abilities that some say will add to his value (i.e. defense, baserunning), and all those are true, but are held within the PEVA rating.

So Bay got $16.5m and Holliday $17m per year.  That means Werth should be worth $16.75m, right?  And what about those who are theorizing that he should be paid $18m to $20m per season.

SPRO projections show that Werth is very close to Jason Bay per contract value terms, and should be paid $95,399,000 for six years of service.  Yes, that's a long contract, and it's value of $15,900.000 per year is lower than both.

Personally, we believe that Werth will be paid in the Bay to Holliday per year territory, and not be quite worth it.

SPRO PROJECTIONS - Jayson Werth

2011 - $14,564,000
2012 - $15,074,000
2013 - $15,602,000
Total Contract - 6 years @ 95,399,000


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Note: 2010 statistics through October 12, 2010.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2010 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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