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Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book 2011
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and Salary Projections
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players. Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker
and see
just what we're talking about.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
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Stat Geek Baseball
Free
Agent 2010-11 Contract Analysis
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Analysis
There's
a pretty good consensus around baseball circles that Jayson Werth will
gain a pretty fine payday this offseason and the bellweathers for his
services is likely to be a contract between that of Jayson Bay and Matt
Holliday. And that's pretty good territory, but is it territory
that a baseball general manager should play in, and which of those two
players does Werth really compare better to.
Jayson Bay signed a four year $66 million contract ($16.5m per season)
with the New York Mets in 2009 that included a fifth year option at $17
million in 2014. Bay had been pretty darn productive in the years
prior to this season, but had a poor first season with the Mets mainly
due to injury.
Matt Holliday signed a seven year $120 million contract with the St.
Louis Cardinals in 2009 that included an eighth year option at $17
million as well. Holliday was the preeiminent position player out
there last year and this contract, at an annual rate of $17 million per
season, reflected that.
With those two contracts, it seems as baseball was saying that these
were two players with similar skills and value. Bay was 31 years
old at the end of 2009; Holliday was 29 years old, two years younger.
Werth will be 31 years old at the end of this year.
For the four years prior, Bay had accumulated 123 home runs and knocked
in 413 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE of 17.062; Holliday had bashed 119
home runs, and knocked in 448 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE at the end
of 2009 of 19.057. (RAVE is a 3 year adjusted number taking the
most recent year at 50%, 1 year back 30%, and 2 years back at 20%.)
PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY
| Bay |
|
Holliday |
|
Werth |
|
| 22.511 |
2006 |
18.861 |
2007 |
4.523 |
|
| 7.133 |
2007 |
25.713 |
2008 |
9.727 |
|
| 18.155 |
2008 |
15.333 |
2009 |
19.511 |
|
| 20.378 |
2009 |
18.627 |
2010 |
20.813 |
|
| 17.062 |
RAVE |
19.056 |
RAVE |
18.205 |
|
Now what about Jayson Werth. For the four years prior to this
offseason, Werth had hit 95 home runs and knocked in 300 runs, and had
a 3 year RAVE of 18.205. So yes, he does seem to have a value in
between those two players. Now Werth had other abilities that
some say will add to his value (i.e. defense, baserunning), and all
those are true, but are held within the PEVA rating.
So Bay got $16.5m and Holliday $17m per year. That means Werth
should be worth $16.75m, right? And what about those who are
theorizing that he should be paid $18m to $20m per season.
SPRO projections show that Werth is very close to Jason Bay per
contract value terms, and should be paid $95,399,000 for six years of
service. Yes, that's a long contract, and it's value of
$15,900.000 per year is lower than both.
Personally, we believe that Werth will be paid in the Bay to Holliday per year territory, and not be quite worth it.
SPRO PROJECTIONS - Jayson Werth
2011 - $14,564,000
2012 - $15,074,000
2013 - $15,602,000
Total Contract - 6 years @ 95,399,000
Want to Find Out What All Free Agents, Arbitration Eligible, and Other Players are worth BEFORE they sign.
More Unique Stats and Salary Projections
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Geek Baseballl PRO11
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| Red
Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: 2010
statistics through October 12, 2010. Option data source:
Cott's Baseball Contracts.
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2010 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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