Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
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 Publication Date: 11/5/2012

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.
PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE
 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player


FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
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Hot Stove League 2012
It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!
The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Recent Hot Stove

Week of December 31, 2012

Free Agent Signings
Lance Berkman signs 1 year contract for $10.1m with vesting option and $1m buyout with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Berkman.  If healthy, Berkman can be a very good player, and that's what Texas is hoping he will be.  SPRO slightly lower, but on the mark, considering we'd be okay with additional years.  $9.977,000 for next season.

J.P. Howell signs 1 year contract for $2.85m plus incentives with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles overpays for J.P. Howell.  Trending up the last several years after not pitching in 2010, however, it's been since 2008-2009 that he's been great.  But, he's left-handed, and pitching in Dodger standium, as long as he's healthy, we'll likely produce a good season.  SPRO $1,380,000.

Jason Frasor signs 1 year contract for $1.5m with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Frasor.  Three straight years of trending down since his best year in 2009, but, and it's no small but, he takes the ball when called on and gives you innings in that relief role.  SPRO $1,353,000.

Brett Myers signs 1 year contract for $7m with 2nd year club option with Indians, pending physical.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value for Myers.  Hard to determine what his role will be, so that might have played into the amount of years given.  SPRO right on the money at $6,973,000 and okay with the second year option.

Players Re-sign With Club

Avoiding Arbitration
David Price signs 1 year $10.1m contract with Rays, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Price.  In his second year of arbitration eligibility after being a Super Two last year, Price is, at 27, one of the most attractive young pitchers in baseball, fresh off a Cy Young Award and bound for big paydays in the future.  This is just the first and a good one at that, near the height of what 2nd year eligibles have gotten.  However, it's probably not quite high enough.  SPRO $12,345,000 for one year, or a 7 year contract at $142,125,000 if signed long term.

Week of December 24, 2012

Free Agent Signings
Mike Gonzalez signs 1 year $2.25m plus incentives contract with Brewers, pending physical.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee overpays for Gonzalez.  If you were just looking at last year, then the contract is appropriate.  It's just hard to not see the risk in the two years prior.  Overall, not a bad deal for Milwaukee and it won't break the bank, just a bit high for us.  SPRO of $1,304,000.

Matt Diaz signs Minor League Deal for 1 year $1.25m contract, including $800,000 incentives with Yankees.  Contract details pending making team out of spring training.
SPRO Analysis - New York pays market value for Diaz.  SPRO of $1,012,000 on target to deal, with Yankees having benefit to pay him a Major League salary only if he's in the majors.  Diaz could have value, if he can rebound from last season.

Raul Ibanez signs 1 year $2.75m contract with Mariners, including $4m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Ibanez.  Raul still has pop in his bat as shown by last year's postseason, but has had four straight years of decline overall.  Third trip to the northwest on a contract that makes sense.  SPRO $4,911,000 includes incentives.

Nick Swisher signs 4 year $56m contract with Indians w/vesting option for 5th season.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value for Swisher.  SPRO 4 years $50,364,000 suggest a bit high, but it's right in the ballpark as far as money and years.  Logical destination for Swisher with his Ohio State ties and the fact that Cleveland only needed to part with a 2nd round pick to sign the free agent instead of a 1st for most clubs.

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Week of December 17, 2012

Free Agent Signings
Cody Ross signs 3 year $26m contract with Diamondbacks, including 4th year club option w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Ross.  Good year last year with Boston gave Ross a good pay day.  SPRO 3 years $26,270,000.

Tom Gorzelanny signs 2 year $5.7m contract with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee pays market value for Gorzelanny.  Right on the money for a lefthander the Brewers needed.  Second year a little worrisome, but okay.  SPRO 1 year $2,748,000.

Francisco Liriano signs 2 year $14m contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Liriano.  Twice in his career Liriano has had above average seasons, very good ones at that, but the other years, he's been substandard, no better than that AAAA pitcher in the minors.  So yes, we're saying he's overpaid here.  SPRO of 2 years and $10,574,000.  Now Pittsburgh is hoping for another one of those two, but likely to get the latter.  Somebody's worth the money they've paid.  We just think the chances it will be Liriano are about a 33% chance.

A.J. Pierzynski signs 1 year $7.5m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Pierzynski.  A little surprising that there were not more than a one year deal available, but the dollars are about right.  SPRO $8,442,000.

Edwin Jackson signs 4 year $52m contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Jackson.  It's getting to be a theme.  They seem to be building a team of mid-level players and paying them as if they were what they used to be.  Jackson was better in 2009 than the last three years, even though they were okay.  But he's being paid as if 2009 has been the norm.  SPRO 3 years $32,050,000.

Carlos Villanueva signs 2 year $10m contract, pending physical, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Villaneuva.  Decent year last year as a hybrid starter/reliever who now wants 30 starts.  Problem is, he's never had 30 starts, and the Cubs are paying him as if he has.  SPRO $1,892,000.

Placido Polance signs 1 year $2.75m contract, including $250,000 incentives, with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami pays market value for Polanco.  Three straight down years for Polanco, but he still provides good value, especially defensively.  SPRO $2,972,000 and okay with a 2nd year.

Jose Veras signs 1 year $2m contract, including team option with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Veras.  Good year last year with Milwaukee and right on the number for value.  SPRO $2,125,000.

Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) signs 1 year $3.25m contract, including $1.85m incentives with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay pays market value for Hernandez. Change of name.  Change of scenery.  A chance to recapture what he was several years ago.  SPRO projection $3,349,000.

Carlos Pena signs 1 year $2.9m contract, including $1.4m incentives with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston gets bargain in Pena.  How can we say he's a bargain when the man hit just 0.197 last year?  Walks.  87 of them. Carlos is definitely trending down in his career, but can provide some power and pitch selection for a young squad changing leagues.  Maybe the walks help them get into the opposition bullpen a bit and Carlos hits a few homers, too.  SPRO $6,623,000.

Mike Pelfrey signs 1 year $4m contract, including $1.5m incentives with Twins.
SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Pelfrey.  Bit high, but in the ballpark, and we'd have been okay with a 2nd year added at about the same rate.  SPRO 1 year $3,342,000.

Stephen Drew signs 1 year $9.5m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Drew.  It's concerning the dollars the Red Sox are throwing the way of its free agents.  Yes, we know he was a Boras client, but it might have been good to refrain from drinking that magic potion he throws a GM's way to get them to up the offer. SPRO $3,808,000.  This was a 0.223 hitter last year.

John Lannan signs 1 year $2.5m with incentives with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Lannan.  SPRO, including any potential incentives, $3,338,000.

Players Re-sign With Club
Jeff Francis signs 1 year $1.5m contract with Rockies, including $1.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado gets bargain or pays market value for Francis.  Depends on how the season works out, but it's a well crafted contract for the club.  SPRO $2,883,000 for season, including any possible incentives.

Avoiding Arbitration
Santiago Casilla signs 3 year $15m contract with Giants, with vesting option for 4th year.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco pays market value for Casilla.  Been good and consistent for a couple years now and the money is right on the number.  Wouldn't have gone with the third year, but he's probably worth it.  SPRO 2 years $10,128,000.


Week of December 10, 2012

Free Agent Signings
Mike Adams signs 2 year $12m with vesting option for 3rd year with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Adams.  One of the best setup men in baseball.  SPRO 2 years $11,451,000 and fine with a 3 year deal for $17,451,000.

Mark Reynolds signs 1 year $6m with 1.5m incentives contract with Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland gets bargain in Reynolds.  On the downside of a ping pong player, but still intriguing due to the power. Not as good as Adam Dunn, of course, but not out of the question that he has a bounce back year like Dunn had.  SPRO $9,192,000.

Ty Wigginton signs 2 year $5m contract with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis gets bargain in Wigginton.  Not the type of player St. Louis usually signs, but he is durable and can play (although not particularly well) a number of positions.  That durability makes him worth an SPRO of 2 years and $7,729,000.

Ryan Dempster signs 2 year $26.5m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Dempster.  SPRO is a little lower on the per year basis with 2 years and $21,190,000, but would have thrown in a third year, making it 3 years and $32,283,000.

Jack Hannahan signs 2 year $4m contract with Reds, including $4m option and $2m buyout..
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value for Hannahan.  Yes, market value in a round about sort of way.  He's actually being paid $1m next year and $1m in the 2nd with that $2m buyout thrown in.  SPRO said make it simpler, 1 year $1,483,000, but it's kinda a creative way to pay for his last two arbitration years and give them a way forward in year one of free agency if they want.

Josh Hamilton signs 5 year $125m contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anhaheim overpays for Hamilton.  When on the field, he's one of the best in the game, but what you've got to realize is, he rarely plays a full season, try 129 of 162.  So what they're really saying is he's worth ... ah, $31m per year.  Well, we think in the other direction, SPRO of 4 years and $102,624,000.  They're building a dynasty in LA.  Well, two of them.  Wonder if either is the one with John Forsythe and Linda Evans.  Expensive, but rarely won anything.  Nice to know there are west coast versions of the Yankees to root against.

Andrew Torres signs 1 year $2m contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco gets bargain in Torres.  He hasn't been real good the last two years, although he can still field and take a walk.  SPRO says $4,381,000 for a one year deal, although with the Giants no longer thinking of him as an every day player, at least for now, they got a better bargain.

Kevin Youkalis signs 1 year $12m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York overpays for Youkalis.  My first impression, without thinking about the dollars, was, why would Youkalis want to go somewhere on a one year deal and play ping pong with his career? Then we looked at the dollars, ... they're huge considering Youkalis and his four year decline in PEVA ratings, from 15.429 to 15.252 to 9.349 to 8.977 to 5.847.  SPRO would be willing to go three years at $18,895,000, with only $6,405,000 paid out in year one.  They're paying him double per year.  Good luck, Mr. Youkalis.  Great deal.

Kevin Correia signs 2 year $10m contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Correia.  They needed pitching and have been acquiring it by trade and now the free agent market.  SPRO says it's on track, maybe even a bit low.  SPRO projection 2 years $11.342,000.

Zach Grienke signs 6 year $147m contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles overpays for Grienke.  Way too much, and I know we're probably in the minority with that opinion.  At one time, back in 2009, Grienke would have been worth a contract of this duration and dollars.  He was coming off one of the best seasons in MLB history, #53 All-Time according to the Best Ever Book.  But this is not 2009, Grienke is not the every season pitcher that Matt Cain is, and even though 2012 was better than the two mediocre seasons before, think $16 per year good, not almost $25m.  The Dodgers are collecting talent and paying a high price, more than they should, and don't be surprised if they're not quite as good as those dollars suggest.  SPRO projection 4 years $65,256,000.

Players Re-sign With Club
Anibal Sanchez re-signs 5 year $80m contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit overpays for Sanchez.  It's' something that would seem that MLB GM's would see in their sleep ... trends.  Baseball is full of them; it's important to see them emerge.  Sanchez has been trending down, in PEVA values from 12.195 to 8,473 to 8.355, and up in ERA from 3.55 to 3.67 to 3.86.  And most of his work was in a pitcher's park, too.  Yes, he'll give you innings, but this is a gross overpay in terms of dollars and years for a slightly above aveage MLB pitcher.  SPRO 3 years $27,825,000.  I wonder how long it will take for the folks in Motown to think this deal wasn't a good one.

Ichiro Suzuki re-signs 2 year $13m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York gets bargain in Suzuki.  Ichiro turned down higher numbers with other clubs to stay with the Yanks and he was worth it.  Yes, he's not the same player he was a few years ago, but he is remarkably durable, and for a club that has major $ sitting on the bench, Suzuki is a need.  SPRO 2 years $18,032,000, and okay with a third.

Ryan Ludwick re-signs 2 year $15m contract with Reds.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value for Ludwick.  Right on target after his comeback year in 2012.  SPRO states $15,197,000 for two year, and would have been okay with a third at about the same rate.

Jason Grilli re-signs 2 year $7m contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Grilli.  If you were going on just 2012, this contract is right in line, and to give the Pirates credit, he has had two very good years in a row.  But Grilli has done this before,  ... been good, then trended down after the good.  SPRO 1 year $2,372,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Alexi Casilla signs 1 year $1.7m contract with Orioles, including $3m option with $200,000 buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Casilla.  SPRO $1,429,000.

Steve Pearce signs 1 year $700,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Casilla.  SPRO $508,000.  A bounce around and may not be better than the new guy player, but he's into arbitration.

Taylor Teagarden signs 1 year $650,000, plus incentives contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Teagarden.  Like Pearce, this is the type of player, just getting into his arbitration years, who may not be worth more than the rookie just coming up from the minors, but they give him a slight boost just to avoid a hearing.  SPRO $497,000.


Week of December 3, 2012

Free Agent Signings
Brandon McCarthy signs 2 year $15.5m contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona overpays for McCarthy.  McCarthy has a tendency not to pitch many innings, except for 2011, although the reasons are varied and, last year, not his fault.  SPRO says 2 years and $8.93m.

Randy Choate signs 3 year $7.5m contract with Cardinals w/$250,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis pays market value for Choate.  SPRO of $1,917,000 for next year when he'll be paid $1,500,000 from the Cards. Odd contract with less money in the first two years and more when he'll be 40.  But Choate did have his best year ever in 2012.  They must know something.

Eric Hinske signs 1 year $1.35m contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Hinske.  SPRO $1,180,000.

Koji Uehara signs 1 year $4.25m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Uehara.  Good sign, even a slight bargain with an SPRO projection of $5,185,000.

Joe Blanton signs 2 year $15m contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anaheim overpay for Blanton.  It's been awhile since Blanton gave someone a year worth $7.5m, but he will give you innings.  SPRO projection 2 years $10,141,000.

Nate Schierholtz signs 1 year $2.25m contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Schierholtz.  Minor amount really, as SPRO noted $1,695,000, but probably the reason why Philly non-tendered him, which we didn't think a great idea by the way.  Nate's a decent player with some upside at only 28 years of age.  While not a bargain price now, it could work out to be one for Chicago.

Eric Chavez signs 1 year $3m contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Chavez.  It's a little high for us; SPRO of $2,449,000, but in the ballpark.  Chavez had a good comeback year for the Yankees and if he can do that again, it is worth it.  But, it had been six years since Chavez had that good a year.  For Diamondback fans, let's hope it won't be six more.

Jeff Keppinger signs 3 year $12m contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago gets bargain in Keppinger.  Considering what Kevin Youkalis is bound to make and the possibility that Keppinger may be about as good these days, the SPRO projection of 2 years and $10,087,000 suggest a bit of a bargain, but concern with the third year.

Wil Nieves signs 1 year $800,000 contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Nieves.  A backup catcher and SPRO number at $824,000.

Shane Victorino signs 3 year $39m contract with Red Sox, pending physical.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Victorino.  Apparently, it's the contract de jeur for the Red Sox, equaling that of Napoli, and even though we like this one better than the Napoli contract, it's still a bit of a reach. For that type of money, there should have been a 4th year. SPRO projection was 4 years $41.673 million.

Dan Haren signs 1 year $13m contract with Nationals, pending physical.
SPRO Analysis - Washington gets bargain in Haren.  Prior to the injury concerns of last season, Haren was durable and very good.  If not for that concern, we'd be talking about a 4 year deal here.  Even with that, it's a bargain for one year with an SPRO projection of $17,274,000.

Joaquin Soria signs 2 year $8m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Soria.  We actualy think this is a very smart deal by the Rangers and wouldn't be surprised to see Soria as their closer in 2014.  SPRO says slightly less than the number given, 2 years and $7,186,000, but we were surprised their weren't more teams in on him, although the fact that he'll start next year on the DL may have kept the number of suitors down.

James Loney signs 1 year $2m contract, plus incentives, with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Loney.  I know he had a bad year last year and is not the typical home run first baseman even in his good years, but the player in only 28 years old and has productive seasons in the past.  If Loney gets any appreciable playing time this season, the Rays have made a real good deal.  SPRO $5,081,000.

Jason Marquis signs 1 year $3m contract with Padres.
SPRO Analysis - San Diego overpays for Marquis.  Okay, he can give you some innings, but they just might not be good ones.  It's been four years since he's been good.  No thanks.  SPRO 1 year $2,015,000.

Mike Napoli signs 3 year $39m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Napoli.  And this is not a small overpay.  Napoli had one significally good year in 2011, in a hitter's ballpark, then went back to more normal numbers, even below normal for him, in a hitter's ballpark.  Even after last season, he wasn't worth these numbers and sure is not now.  Not sure what Boston is trying to accomplish.  SPRO 3 years $25,369,000.

Players Re-sign With Club
Reed Johnson re-signs 1 year $1.75m contract w/$150,000 incentives and club option for $1.6m and $150,000 buyout with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Johnson.  SPRO states $2,390,000 for one year, including any incentives.

Brett Gardner avoids arbitration and signs 1 year $2.85m contract w/$150,000 incentives with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New York pays market value for Gardner.  SPRO projection $2,698,000.

Ian Stewart re-signs 1 year $2m non-guaranteed contract w/$500,000 incentives with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago overpays for Stewart.  It's not really an overpay when you can cut him in spring training and get off the hook, but if he makes the team, it probably is.  Essentially the same contract that was non-tendered, but with the non-guarantee, but to the same player who has struggled with the mendoza line for two straight seasons.  The kind of player that usually gets a minimum type contract in the SPRO level of $796,000.

Jared Burton re-signs 2 years $5.5m contract w/club option for 3rd year at $3.6m and $200,000 buyout with Twins.
SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Burton.  One very good setup year after years on nothing special, but the contract is on target for the dollars and term.  SPRO 2 years $6,126,000.

Nate McLouth re-signs 1 year $2m w/$600,000 incentives with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for McLouth.  It's small numbers and really not too significant with Baltimore likely paying a bit much due to the help McLouth gave them down the stretch.  We like McLouth and think he may be due a full rebound year, but SPRO suggests $1,542,000.

Marco Scutaro re-signs 3 years $20m contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco gets bargain in Scutaro.  Integral part of their championship run and consistently good in his 30s, Scutaro is a solid addition to the Giants for the three year term.  Yes, he's old, which is concerning, but showing no decline.  SPRO says 3 years $26,900,000.

Angel Pagan re-signs for 4 years and $40m contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco pays market value for Pagan.  It's even a bit of a bargain with SPRO suggesting 4 years and $46.968, but it's right in the ballpark.  Pagan was integral in the season SF had which led to their World Series title and this seems a good fit for the team.
 
Geovanny Soto re-signs 1 year $3m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas gets bargain in Soto.  After being non-tendered by the club, Texas got Soto back and it's potentially a very good deal for them.  Yes, last year was poor and the year before not great, but two years ago, Soto hit 17 HR and had an OBP of 0.393. SPRO $4,105,000.






More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers Given to Nine Potential Free Agents

Nine players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd rounder to the signing team.
  • Michael Bourn, Atlanta
  • Josh Hamilton, Texas
  • Adam LaRoche, Washington
  • Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
  • Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
  • Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
  • Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
  • David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
  • B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

All nine players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.  If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first round.



 
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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