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Stat
Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Paperback
UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON
The
Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!
Best
Ever Book
Digital
Edition
Publication
Date: 11/10/2013
Kindle/Computer Edition
Great
gift for the baseball
fan in your life.
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
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Stat Geek Baseball
Hot
Stove League 2012-2013
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It's
that time of year. The season and World Series are done and
your
teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the
playoffs next year. And there are questions aplenty.
What
free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could
garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave? Who is
arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that
player or cut him free? What are your favorite players worth
anyway?
Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball
will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as
well as give our opinion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary
Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to
the signed player. Follow along with our hot stove reports, then watch
MLB Network's (which can be seen on the best satellite TV) hot stove specials and programs. Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well. Happy stoving!
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The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings
Find
out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid,
what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary
Projection system, and more.
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Week of February 18,
2013
Free Agent Players
Kyle Lohse is
the only major free agent player left on the free agent market.
Just where oh where will he end up and why is it taking this long.
SPRO Analysis - Kyle Lohse SPRO projection 4 years $68,125,000.
For more on why Kyle Lohse is still out there and why he won't get that projected contract, visit the Stat Geek
Baseball Blog.
Week of February 11,
2013
Free Agent Players
Michael Bourn signs
4 year $48m contract with Indians, including vestion option for 5th
year at $12m.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland
pays market value for Bourn. Boy, this took a long time and
his
asking price had to come down to reality, but Bourn ended up getting a
good fair contract. SPRO 4 years $48,280,000.
Players Re-Sign With Club
Felix Hernandez signs
7 year $175m contract with with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle
overpays for Hernandez. If you were just counting the average
value at $25m, it would be a stretch, but this is essentially a five
year extension, paying him $135.5m. That's $27.1m per year.
Great pitcher, but still out of line. SPRO 6 years
$139,791,000 or $23.3m per year.
Erik Kratz signs
split contract at $496,000 in majors, a pre-arbitration level
contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia
pays market value for Kratz. Counted on as a starting catcher
in
the first month due to Carlos Ruis suspension for 25 games.
Played well in the month Ruiz was out last summer. SPRO
$502,000.
Darin Ruf signs
1 year split pre-arbitration contract for $490,000, league minimum, in
majors with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia
pays market value for Ruf. SPRO $491,000.
Joe Savery signs
1 year split pre-arbitration contract for $490,000, league minimum, in
majors with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia
pays market value for Savery. SPRO $496,000.
Avoiding Arbitration
Matt Latos signs
2 year contract for $11.5m, avoiding arbitration, with Reds.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati
gets bargain in Latos. We think both the team and player are
undervalueing Latos. SPRO 2 years $16,053,000.
Darren O'Day signs
2 year contract for $5,800,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Orioles. Club option for 3rd year at $4,250,000.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore
pays market for O'Day. We say market value, because we think
that's about right for the 2 year term, but the club option at $4.25m
for the 3rd is definitely on the club's side and could tilt this over
to the bargain side. SPRO
2 years $9,294,000 or 3 years $16,265,000.
Dexter Fowler signs
2 year contract for $11,600,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore
gets bargain in Fowler. SPRO for 2 years $15,269,000, and
we'd be okay with a third year, taking the deal to $16,107,000.
Week of February 4,
2013
Free Agent Players
Joe Saunders signs
1 year contract for $6.5m plus $1m incentives with Mariners,
including mution option for 2nd year.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle
gets bargain in Saunders. Continuing the trend of sign late,
get
paid less. SPRO $8,301,000 and okay with a 3 year deal.
Francisco Liriano signs
1 year contract for $1m plus $4.75m incentives with Pirates.
Vesting option included for $5m to $8m for 2nd year.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh
gets bargain in Liriano. Recent injury complicated the deal,
so
the risk is now with the player. SPRO $5,469,000 and includes
a
2nd year at similar rate.
Rod Barajas signs
1 year minor league deal contract for $800,000 with Diamondbacks if
makes the major league team.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
gets bargain in Barajas. Getting older and not performing
great
last year, but still, for a backup catcher with some pedigree, it's a
bargain. SPRO at previous playing time $3,680,000.
Kelly Johnson signs
1 year contract for $2.45m with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa
Bay gets bargain in Johnson. No, last year was not great, but
it
was a $5m year and only two years ago Johnson was worth over $10m.
It's true, there's a downhill trend here, but still think
he's
gonna be worth more than he got. We're seeing the sign late,
get
less phenomenom. SPRO $6,972,000.
Jon Rauch signs
1 year contract for $1m, plus $750,000 incentives, with
Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami gets
bargain in Rauch. When you see what other relief pitcher's
signed
for early, it's another case of late and lose money. SPRO
$3,066,000.
Juan Rivera signs
1 year minor league contract that would pay him $1.2m, plus $800,000
incentives, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New
York gets bargain in Rivera. Yes, he's getting older and
never
really reached his potential, but a solid extra guy for a club usually
gets you more than this. Seems like somebody's bound to get a
great deal on Michael Bourn if this late signing bargain sale
continues. SPRO $3,618,000 for Rivera.
Players Re-Sign With Club
Aaron Hill signs
3 year contract for $35m contract extension with Diamondbacks
for 2014-6, $40.5m including current season.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
pays market value for Hill. SPRO 4 yrs. $46,968,000.
Average annual value of the extension right in line.
Bit of
a bargain in the current season, which was signed prior to last year.
Luke Scott signs
1 year contract for $2,750,000 with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa
Bay gets bargain in Scott. SPRO $3,656,000.
Avoiding Arbitration
Mike Aviles signs
2 year contract for $6,000,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland
pays market value for Aviles. SPRO
2 years $5,888,000.
Sergio Romo signs
2 year contract for $9,000,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San
Francisco
gets bargain in Romo. Boy, they do a good job negotiating,
now
locking up a closer who has been getting better for three years at a
low price and avoiding both remaining years of arbitration.
SPRO
2 years $13,899,000.
Gerardo Parra signs
1 year contract for $2,350,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
gets bargain in Prado. One year longer than we'd suggest, but
pretty much right on the money. Prado's been a very good
player
for Atlanta with lots of versatility. Good sign.
SPRO 3
years $28,023,000.
Alberto Callaspo signs
2 year contract for $8.975,000, avoiding arbitration, with
Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los
Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Callaspo. Not the power
hitter
you love, but a pretty consistent performer who is willing to take a
walk. SPRO 2 years $14,463,000.
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| All
nine
players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have
rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.
If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or
second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first
round. |
FREE AGENT CHANGES
There
are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up
what when signed a free agent. Only those that have been
offered
the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not. For those players
signed
by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their
second round pick. The former club gets a
compensatory pick
afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
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More Hot Stove Items
Hot
Stove - November 2012
Hot
Stove - December 2012
Hot
Stove - January 2013 |
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| Qualifying Offers Extended |
Qualifying Offers Given to Nine
Potential Free Agents
Nine
players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by
their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent
compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd
rounder to the signing team.
- Michael
Bourn, Atlanta
- Josh
Hamilton, Texas
- Adam
LaRoche, Washington
- Kyle
Lohse, St. Louis
- Hiroki
Kuroda, New York Yankees
- Nick
Swisher, New York Yankees
- Rafael
Soriano, New York Yankees
- David
Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
- B.J.
Upton, Tampa Bay
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| Red
Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: PEVA
- Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2014 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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