Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book

THE 2013

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Best Ever Book
Digital Edition
Publication Date: 11/10/2013

Kindle/Computer Edition

Great gift for the baseball
fan in your life.

Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.

PEVA Player

 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

Stat Geek Baseball

Hot Stove League 2012-2013

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opinion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player. Follow along with our hot stove reports, then watch MLB Network's (which can be seen on the best satellite TV) hot stove specials and programs. Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of February 18, 2013

Free Agent Players
Kyle Lohse is the only major free agent player left on the free agent market.  Just where oh where will he end up and why is it taking this long.
SPRO Analysis -
Kyle Lohse SPRO projection 4 years $68,125,000.

For more on why Kyle Lohse is still out there and why he won't get that projected contract, visit the Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Week of February 11, 2013

Free Agent Players
Michael Bourn signs 4 year $48m contract with Indians, including vestion option for 5th year at $12m.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland pays market value for Bourn.  Boy, this took a long time and his asking price had to come down to reality, but Bourn ended up getting a good fair contract.  SPRO 4 years $48,280,000.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Felix Hernandez signs 7 year $175m contract with with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
Seattle overpays for Hernandez.  If you were just counting the average value at $25m, it would be a stretch, but this is essentially a five year extension, paying him $135.5m.  That's $27.1m per year.  Great pitcher, but still out of line.  SPRO 6 years $139,791,000 or $23.3m per year.

Erik Kratz signs split contract at $496,000 in majors, a pre-arbitration  level contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadelphia pays market value for Kratz.  Counted on as a starting catcher in the first month due to Carlos Ruis suspension for 25 games.  Played well in the month Ruiz was out last summer. SPRO $502,000.

Darin Ruf signs 1 year split pre-arbitration contract for $490,000, league minimum, in majors with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadelphia pays market value for Ruf.  SPRO $491,000.

Joe Savery signs 1 year split pre-arbitration contract for $490,000, league minimum, in majors with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadelphia pays market value for Savery.  SPRO $496,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Matt Latos signs 2 year contract for $11.5m, avoiding arbitration, with Reds.
SPRO Analysis -
Cincinnati gets bargain in Latos.  We think both the team and player are undervalueing Latos.  SPRO 2 years $16,053,000.

Darren O'Day signs 2 year contract for $5,800,000, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.  Club option for 3rd year at $4,250,000.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore pays market for O'Day.  We say market value, because we think that's about right for the 2 year term, but the club option at $4.25m for the 3rd is definitely on the club's side and could tilt this over to the bargain side.  SPRO 2 years $9,294,000 or 3 years $16,265,000.

Dexter Fowler signs 2 year contract for $11,600,000, avoiding arbitration, with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore gets bargain in Fowler.  SPRO for 2 years $15,269,000, and we'd be okay with a third year, taking the deal to $16,107,000.

Cheap baseball tickets

Week of February 4, 2013

Free Agent Players
Joe Saunders signs 1 year contract for $6.5m plus $1m incentives with Mariners, including mution option for 2nd year.
SPRO Analysis -
Seattle gets bargain in Saunders.  Continuing the trend of sign late, get paid less.  SPRO $8,301,000 and okay with a 3 year deal.

Francisco Liriano signs 1 year contract for $1m plus $4.75m incentives with Pirates.  Vesting option included for $5m to $8m for 2nd year.
SPRO Analysis -
Pittsburgh gets bargain in Liriano.  Recent injury complicated the deal, so the risk is now with the player.  SPRO $5,469,000 and includes a 2nd year at similar rate.

Rod Barajas signs 1 year minor league deal contract for $800,000 with Diamondbacks if makes the major league team.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona gets bargain in Barajas.  Getting older and not performing great last year, but still, for a backup catcher with some pedigree, it's a bargain.  SPRO at previous playing time $3,680,000.

Kelly Johnson signs 1 year contract for $2.45m with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay gets bargain in Johnson.  No, last year was not great, but it was a $5m year and only two years ago Johnson was worth over $10m.  It's true, there's a downhill trend here, but still think he's gonna be worth more than he got.  We're seeing the sign late, get less phenomenom.  SPRO $6,972,000.

Jon Rauch
signs 1 year contract for $1m, plus $750,000 incentives, with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
Miami gets bargain in Rauch.  When you see what other relief pitcher's signed for early, it's another case of late and lose money.  SPRO $3,066,000.

Juan Rivera signs 1 year minor league contract that would pay him $1.2m, plus $800,000 incentives, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York gets bargain in Rivera.  Yes, he's getting older and never really reached his potential, but a solid extra guy for a club usually gets you more than this.  Seems like somebody's bound to get a great deal on Michael Bourn if this late signing bargain sale continues.  SPRO $3,618,000 for Rivera.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Aaron Hill signs 3 year contract for $35m contract extension with Diamondbacks for 2014-6, $40.5m including current season.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona pays market value for Hill.  SPRO 4 yrs. $46,968,000.  Average annual value of the extension right in line.  Bit of a bargain in the current season, which was signed prior to last year.

Luke Scott signs 1 year contract for $2,750,000 with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay gets bargain in Scott.  SPRO $3,656,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Mike Aviles signs 2 year contract for $6,000,000, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland pays market value for Aviles.  SPRO 2 years $5,888,000.

Sergio Romo signs 2 year contract for $9,000,000, avoiding arbitration, with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco gets bargain in Romo.  Boy, they do a good job negotiating, now locking up a closer who has been getting better for three years at a low price and avoiding both remaining years of arbitration.  SPRO 2 years $13,899,000.

Gerardo Parra signs 1 year contract for $2,350,000, avoiding arbitration, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona gets bargain in Prado.  One year longer than we'd suggest, but pretty much right on the money.  Prado's been a very good player for Atlanta with lots of versatility.  Good sign.  SPRO 3 years $28,023,000.

Alberto Callaspo signs 2 year contract for $8.975,000, avoiding arbitration, with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Callaspo. Not the power hitter you love, but a pretty consistent performer who is willing to take a walk.  SPRO 2 years $14,463,000. @ Zazzle

All nine players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.  If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first round.


There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.

More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012

Hot Stove - December 2012

Hot Stove - January 2013
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers Given to Nine Potential Free Agents

Nine players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd rounder to the signing team.
  • Michael Bourn, Atlanta
  • Josh Hamilton, Texas
  • Adam LaRoche, Washington
  • Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
  • Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
  • Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
  • Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
  • David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
  • B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

Shibe Park, Philadelphia,     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit
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