Stat Geek Baseball 2009

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PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Batting Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Yankees
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. New York Mets
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Atlanta Braves
7. Chicago Cubs
8. Boston Red Sox
9. Minnesota Twins
10. Baltimore Orioles
11. Oakland A's
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Milwaukee Brewers
14. Houston Astros
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Texas Rangers
17. Detroit Tigers
18. San Diego Padres
19. Florida Marlins
20. Washington Nationals
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. Seattle Mariners
24. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
25. Chicago White Sox
26. San Francisco Giants
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
29. Colorado Rockies
30. Cincinnati Reds


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Baseball Evaluation

PEVA Power Ranking - Shuffle Index 2009
PEVA Shuffle Ranks - Preseason 2009
As of 3-3-2009

PEVA Shuffle Totals



Arizona Diamondbacks 61.667 100.326 161.993
Atlanta Braves 96.141 74.317 170.458
Baltimore Orioles 90.562 32.186 122.748
Boston Red Sox 93.994 115.203 209.197
Chicago White Sox 62.827 82.113 144.940
Chicago Cubs 95.541 90.781 186.322
Cincinnati Reds 52.878 63.071 115.949
Cleveland Indians 81.726 95.788 177.514
Colorado Rockies 54.772 62.811 117.583
Detroit Tigers 77.832 41.841 119.673
Florida Marlins 73.061 41.073 114.134
Houston Astros 83.938 61.950 145.888
Kansas City Royals 72.691 71.441 144.132
Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels 64.839 91.388 156.227
Los Angeles Dodgers 104.465 67.218 171.683
Milwaukee Brewers 85.041 44.323 129.364
Minnesota Twins 93.625 61.262 154.887
New York Yankees 104.625 109.071 213.696
New York Mets 103.266 103.039 206.305
Oakland A's 88.487 47.030 135.517
Philadelphia Phillies 106.732 95.040 201.772
Pittsburgh Pirates 61.840 42.368 104.208
San Diego Padres 77.637 32.411 110.048
Seattle Mariners 65.092 41.293 106.385
San Francisco Giants 62.306 88.751 151.057
St. Louis Cardinals 102.223 47.749 149.972
Tampa Bay Rays 87.317 90.901 178.218
Texas Rangers 78.450 29.441 107.891
Toronto Blue Jays 67.256 102.326 169.582
Washington Nationals 72.955 41.670 114.625
Note: PEVA Shuffle Totals include PEVA 2008 totals for all players on 40 man preseason 2009 roster as of date

PEVA Shuffle Ranks - Preseason 2009
As of 3-3-2009

PEVA Shuffle Plus Minus (Compared to Final 2009)



Arizona Diamondbacks 161.993 -3.879 -5.147 -9.026
Atlanta Braves 170.458 -4.224 20.609 16.385
Baltimore Orioles 122.748 -1.169 -14.172 -15.341
Boston Red Sox 209.197 3.327 13.003 16.330
Chicago White Sox 144.940 -23.511 -9.253 -32.764
Chicago Cubs 186.322 4.798 -8.002 -3.204
Cincinnati Reds 115.949 -14.865 1.583 -13.282
Cleveland Indians 177.514 -0.391 10.806 10.415
Colorado Rockies 117.583 -17.440 -4.031 -21.471
Detroit Tigers 119.673 -7.976 0.300 -7.676
Florida Marlins 114.134 -17.370 -21.473 -38.843
Houston Astros 145.888 -5.855 -1.864 -7.719
Kansas City Royals 144.132 8.234 2.429 10.663
Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels 156.227 -9.652 -8.020 -17.672
Los Angeles Dodgers 171.683 19.930 -29.370 -9.440
Milwaukee Brewers 129.364 -6.571 -46.395 -52.966
Minnesota Twins 154.887 0.323 -8.220 -7.897
New York Yankees 213.696 15.755 24.598 40.353
New York Mets 206.305 -1.776 21.195 19.419
Oakland A's 135.517 27.731 -20.737 6.994
Philadelphia Phillies 201.772 7.026 5.685 12.711
Pittsburgh Pirates 104.208 -26.320 -3.981 -30.301
San Diego Padres 110.048 -1.215 -17.081 -18.296
Seattle Mariners 106.385 -7.326 -2.131 -9.457
San Francisco Giants 151.057 0.847 12.770 13.617
St. Louis Cardinals 149.972 -11.748 -15.934 -27.682
Tampa Bay Rays 178.218 12.281 5.927 18.208
Texas Rangers 107.891 -20.575 -6.175 -26.750
Toronto Blue Jays 169.582 2.623 -11.187 -8.564
Washington Nationals 114.625 20.794 -3.807 16.987
Note: PEVA Shuffle Plus Minus numbers represent the increase or decrease between the totals for the 40 man preseason 2009 roster versus the end of season totals of 2008.

PEVA Shuffle Index - Batting Power Rankings

March 6, 2009 - Somebody woke up Manny.  That's good for Dodger fans for sure.  With his addition to the blue mix, they've risen to the #3 spot in the PEVA shuffle for preseason 2009 in both their offseason movement, as well as the Batting Power Rankings as we head through spring training and into the regular season.  But the biggest splash in the roster manipulation pool for batters amongst the 30 baseball clubs, not counting those World Baseball Classic rosters, was not the Los Angeles Dodgers and Manny, or even the big power clubs in New York City, it was two smaller market, down on their luck clubs trying to make waves in the regular season waters in 2009.  How big a wave?  Well, that'll depend on a whole lot of things, but they certainly are moving in the right direction as far as their offense goes.

Who has done the best in the PEVA Shuffle for batters here in the beginning days of March.

Top Five
1.  Oakland A's - Known mostly for their trade deadline moves away from contention and veteran high-salary players, the A's took a decidedly un-Beane like move toward contention in the AL West by adding a bunch of sluggers and well-known names to their batting lineup.  Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, Nomar Garciaparra.  Now some of these players are no longer MVP caliber, but others, such as Holliday and Cabrera are prime career players bound to help a struggling offense.  How Holliday will do outside the confines of Coors will be interesting to watch.  And whether he'll stay through the whole year another question, but until then, the Oakland A's have moved up the PEVA Shuffle Index for Batting by 27.731 rating points.  Now let's not talk about the player sale on the pitching front here, which could discount these moves considerably, but even with that, the A's could be looking for 3 additional wins (+13 Batting, -10 Pitching) in 2009.

2.  Washington Nationals - With so much attention being focused on the election of Barack Obama and the economic troubles, you'd think the Nationals would be content with moving under the radar in the nation's capitol.  Well, that's certainly been their modis operandi the last two years, but not in 2009.  With the addition of Adam Dunn, plus a lesser cohort in Josh Willingham, the run scoring potential of the Nationals is on the rise.  Don't be too shocked if this 20.794 shuffle increase in batting PEVA doesn't see Washington in a battle to move out of the National League East cellar.

3.  Los Angeles Dodgers - There you go, Manny.  Thanks for making the caveats a whole lot easier.  
 Add the 19.930 in the PEVA Shuffle, mostly due to Ramirez, although the nice addition of Orlando Hudson to the starting lineup and the backups of Ausmus and Loretta will have good impact, too.

4.  New York Yankees - Well, you knew with the addition of Mark Teixeira they'd have to be in here somewhere.  And they are.  But just when have you seen the Yankees rank behind the A's and Nationals in anything.  Additional 15.755 in the PEVA Shuffle.

5.  Tampa Bay Rays - It probably won't be enough to hold off the Yankees again for a playoff spot, but who knows.  With the addition of Pat Burrell, an increase in the PEVA Batting shuffle comes in at 12.281.  But we all know the fortunes of the Rays has a lot more to do with the progression of their young players like Longoria and Upton, plus pitchers Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, and Sonnanstine.

Bottom Five
26.  Florida Marlins - There's a lot of deletion here in south Florida, and although it's rarely had the impact that other clubs have seen due to the play of young players brought in, we've got a sneaking suspiciion this might be the year it doesn't work.  Downgrade the PEVA batting Shuffle by -17.370.
27.  Colorado Rockies - Loss of Holliday has to hurt.  Down -17.440 in PEVA Batting Shuffle.  But they still have the humidor.
28.  Texas Rangers - A negative 20.575 for those Rangers.  In a hitter's park where they think Padilla and Millwood are aces, you should be compensating somewhere.  We think this is another tough year in Arlington.
29.  Chicago White Sox - Although this weak division will see the White Sox in contention despite the PEVA batting shuffle moving down 23.511 points, it'll be increasingly hard to beat back the Twins or Indians.  Plus don't look now, but we could have a Royal resurgence sooner than you'd think.
30.  Pittsburgh PIrates - Long gone are the days of Parker, Stargell, and Sanguillen.  Geez, even gone are the days of Jason Bay, who now may be one of the best Red Sox players.  Yes, they still have Nate McLouth, but if this franchise doesn't start to win more soon, the chances of keeping him long term are not great.  Down 26.320 in the PEVA Batting Shuffle.

PEVA Shuffle Index - Pitching Power Rankings

March 4, 2009 - The off-season moves are winding down, and spring training games are under way.  Now somebody go to Sleepy Hollow or Chavez Ravine or Delusion Fields and tell Manny that baseball games are being played and that there's a recession going on.  Translate if you must.  But just who has made the biggest splash in roster manipulation, the ripples in the waters that will extend far into the regular season, that based on last year's performance, will auger well for 2009.  Has moving the deck chairs of these players really mattered and just how does it look from here, for now, before even one World Baseball Classic game has been played and bored the rest of the USA?

There have been a lot of changes and more than a few teams have made their case for better pitching staffs.  The ups and downs of the PEVA Shuffle Index show just where the table will start to be set once the real games begin.  This index is not a projection, folks, but it is based on the only thing we know for now.  If the year 2009 has player performance like 2008, where do we stand today.

Who has done the best in the PEVA Shuffle for pitchers, here on 3.4.2009.

Top Five
1.  New York Yankees - No surprise here.  If you spend two hundred and fifty million dollars on two pitchers, one spectacular, the other good and overpaid, you're bound to see a pretty good bump.  And the Yankees pitching staff will be better, barring injury of course, with the addition of Sabathia to the rotation.  Burnett we're not too sure of.  But going into the season, the additions of Sabathia, Burnett, and others have added 24.598 PEVA 2008 player rating points to the pitching staff, and that's certainly good.  How good?  Think an extra 12 wins.

2. New York Mets - Just go across the city to the other new ballpark and there's no surprise that the increase in revenue has allowed the Mets to parlay the cash into additional free agent pitchers.  For them, most of the focus has been on the bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.  But the Mets have added a ton of pitchers beyond them, too, through trades of consequential and seemingly inconsequential metal, through free agency.  Some will purely add depth.  Some will provide a few nice surprises.  Has Tim Redding been brought if for a few Phils games since he has shown a masterly proficiency against the boys from Philly?  Will a Dessens or Garcia recapture some past magic?  All in all a PEVA Shuffle increase of 21.195.

3.  Atlanta Braves - Somebody must have told the folks down south that their trip down the standings was not going to stop if the flow of free agents kept leaving town without anyone to take their place.  But quietly the Braves have added a few good folks to the pitching mix that may mitigate the losses at hand.  Derek Lowe may not have been the top name on the free agent pile, but he's not that far behind.  With Lowe and Javier Vazquez, the Bravos have picked up a lot of potential innings while the staff around them jells.  Upgade of 20.609 PEVA.

4.  Boston Red Sox - Even though they seemed to be taking a big back seat to their rivals to the south, don't be too surprised if the better pitching staff doesn't reside in Beantown.  And if John Smoltz comes back to something near his form, look out.  13.003 PEVA Shuffle plus not too shabby.

5.  San Francisco Giants - Big ballpark.  Big pitcher.  Randy Johnson may be old, but the combination of those two factors, if he can retain any amount of good health, will help San Francisco jump back into the mix in the NL West, particularly if the Manny sweepstakes hits a lottery bump for the Dodgers.  But he's not the only reason.  Think Affeldt, Howry, and Justin Miller, too.  Upgrade of 12.770 PEVA, good for an additional 6 wins of so.

Bottom Five
26.  San Diego Padres - And if they got their way, they'd delete Jake Peavy, too.  PEVA Shuffle downgrade of -17.081.
27.  Oakland A's - Kinda like the swallows coming home to Capistrano.  This is a seasonal right seeing the A's sell off pitching and going with youth.  And it works, a bit, but is a heck of a way to try and compete.  Downgrade PEVA - 20.737.
28.  Florida Marlins - See Oakland above, but they have a tendency to play well young.  Trouble is, ... look at the rest of this division.  For some reason, we think Florida is in trouble this year.  PEVA Shuffle - 21.473.
29.  Los Angeles Dodgers - What would happen if you base your entire off-season of courting one player and that one player doesn't show, or doesn't show up and play as well as he did the last two months of last season.  Well, still not sure if we'll get the chance to find out, but the Dodgers lost a lot of pitching in the off-season in Lowe, Penny, Saito, and others.  They've got youth, too.  The youth has to be ready to pitch.  -29.370 in the PEVA Shuffle index.
30.  Milwaukee Brewers - You lose the top two pitchers in your rotation; one which might have won the Cy Young if he hadn't moved from one league to the other in the center of the year.  The other, injured often, but when healthy, one of the better pitchers in the game.  This will be the year that the Brewer offense better come to play.  A loss of 46.396 in the PEVA Shuffle from the end of 2009 till today.

For a list of the PEVA Shuffle Index - Pitcher Power Rankings, see the left column.

Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009 - Team Standings
PEVA Power Ranking
Shuffle Index 2009
Arbitration Figures Page
2008 Major League Baseball Player Grades
Best Postseason Pitching Years
Best Postseason Pitching Careers
Pitching Grades for 2008
Batting Grades for 2008
2008 Fielding Grades
2008 Team Ranks
Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheets
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Fantasy Baseball Three Year Rolling Average Rankings
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PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Pitching Power Rankings

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. New York Mets
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Cleveland Indians
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Tampa Bay Rays
10. Chicago Cubs
11. San Francisco Giants
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Atlanta Braves
14. Kansas City Royals
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Cincinnati Reds
17. Colorado Rockies
18. Houston Astros
19. Minnesota Twins
20. St. Louis Cardinals
21. Oakland A's
22. Milwaukee Brewers
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
24. Detroit Tigers
25. Washington Nationals
26. Seattle Mariners
27. Florida Marlins
28. San Diego Padres
29. Baltimore Orioles
30. Texas Rangers
Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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PEVA Player Grade
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

Coming in 2009
Batting Postseason Player Grades
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