Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book

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Baseball Evaluation, Babe Ruth

Baseball Evaluation

Team Predictions 2009 - Standings
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
American League Predictions 2009

National League
Wins Loss
National League East
New York Mets 96 66
Phladelphia Phillies 95 67
Atlanta Braves 87 75
Washington Nationals 72 90
Florida Marlins 71 91
National League Central
Chicago Cubs 91 71
St. Louis Cardinals 81 81
Houston Astroes 80 82
Milwaukee Brewers 75 87
Cincinnati Reds 72 90
Pittsburgh Pirates 69 93
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers 87 75
Arizona Diamondbacks 84 78
San Francisco Giants 81 81
Colorado Rockies 72 90
San Diego Padres 70 92
Wild Card Winner - Philadelphia Phillies
Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2009 to wins and losses.

National League East
The most powerful divisions in baseball are in the east.  There would come as few surprises to say that two of the four playoff teams in the National League will come from the National League East division in 2009, as both the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have made themselves prohibitive favorites to battle for the top of the division standings this year. How tough will this be for the two top teams?  Pretty darn tough, as the Braves will provide a nice little test in the middle of the division as well.  But let's look at the two top teams going in.  Philadelphia.  As the reigning World Series Champs, the Phils went into the off-season with one basic move to make and that's what they did when they effectively traded Free Agent leftfielders.  Now we like Pat Burrell alot folks, so there's no bashing coming from here, but for 2009, the addition of Raul Ibanez will provide a similar punch to the lineup behind Ryan Howard and allow the Phils to score a good amount of runs.  In fact, the Phils stand at the top of the PEVA Shuffle Power Rankings for Position Players at 106.732, led by Howard, Utley, Ibanez, and Victorino.  With four players above a 10 PEVA Player Rating in 2008 (and then there's that little player called Jimmy Rollins in there, too), this club will score runs and play good defense.  And four of those five players are in the prime of their career, too.  New York Mets.  At #4 in the Position Player Power Rankings, 103.266 PEVA, the Mets have four players above the 10 PEVA level as well, with two in David Wright and Carlos Beltran above 20.  What puts the Mets just below Philadelphia on offense is a lack of depth below that.  While Philadelphia has Jimmy Rollins and Jason Werth, the Mets have Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.  Edge Philadelphia on offense.  But slight edge going into the season for the Mets on the pitching staff.  With the best shuffle staff in National League baseball going into the season, the additions of bullpen aces Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, plus those of Tim Redding and Sean Green allow the 103.039 PEVA pitching rating to outshine Philadelphia by the slightest margin.  There's concern about injuries in New York, as well as the intangibles on this squad, but between the two, you could be looking at a race down to the final day of the year, 95 wins or more for each, and a playoff berth for both.  We're not as bullish on the Florida Marlins as some.  There's going to be one year that having no experience and really young players blows up in your face.  This might be the year for that, and we wouldn't be surprised if the Nationals make a play for fourth place in the East with Adam Dunn leading a much-improved offense into play each day of the season in Washington.

National League Central
There's no denying the fact that the Chicago Cubs are the prohibitive favorite in this division, although that may come from facts of the weak compatriots below them as much as it does from the Cubbies themselves.  Now, not that it's not an impressive bunch.  Their pitching staff sets up nicely with the rotation of Dempster, Lilly, Zambrano, and Hardin, and if Hardin can have another injury free year, it could be pretty good.  We're a bit concerned about the bullpen, but with either Marmol or Gregg taking the reigns in the back end, they should be okay.  Most people love this offense; we do not.  While players such as Soto, Ramirez, and Derrick Lee provide a consistency to the squad, having a mercurial leadoff hitter with a poor OBP in Soriano and counting on a nut like Milton Bradley could blow up in their face.  Still should be enough to win the division, with the Cardinals and Astroes pulling in behind them, but we wouldn't be too certain about the margin in the end.  The biggest drop in this division will likely make the most waves.  In Milwaukee, the playoff squad from 2008 has lost its two lead wheels, and without a Sabathia or Sheets heading the staff, even the potential power of their offense won't be enough to help that sinking feeling for the Brewers in the standings.

National League West
Manny has signed!  Manny has signed!  And we hate to admit this, but it is the most significant statement for a division looking for an identity.  Now this won't be the National League Central with one top team and no contenders.  We actually think the San Francisco Giants have made great strides with the additions of Randy Johnson, Jeremy Affeldt, Bobby Howry, and Justin Miller to the pitching staff that was already well topped by Lincecum and Cain.  But they needed more than the addition of Edgar Renteria to the offense to climb enough above 0.500 to compete for the division title.  For the Arizona Diamondbacks, that's just where they will be, competing to the end with the Los Angeles Dodgers due to their emerging stars and a pitching rotation headed by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, probably the best one two punch in the game most folks don't know enough about.  While the Dodgers may have too much offense, if Manny is Manny, to overcome in the end, watch the Diamondbacks give them a tussle through the final week of the season.  We're not sold on the Dodgers being able to absorb their pitching losses of innings eater Derrick Lowe and handing that mantle to all those good young guys, but it could be just enough to win this division, but not by much.

Player Predictions 2010
Team Predictions 2010 AL
Team Predictions 2010 NL
Player Predictions 2009
Player Predictions 2009
PEVA Power Ranking
Shuffle Index 2009
Arbitration Figures Page
2008 Major League Baseball Player Grades
Best Postseason Pitching Years
Best Postseason Pitching Careers
Pitching Grades for 2008
Batting Grades for 2008
2008 Fielding Grades
2008 Team Ranks
Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheets
Fantasy Baseball Single Season Rankings
Fantasy Baseball Three Year Rolling Average Rankings
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History

PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Batting
Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Yankees
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. New York Mets
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Atlanta Braves
7. Chicago Cubs
8. Boston Red Sox
9. Minnesota Twins
10. Baltimore Orioles
11. Oakland A's
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Milwaukee Brewers
14. Houston Astros
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Texas Rangers
17. Detroit Tigers
18. San Diego Padres
19. Florida Marlins
20. Washington Nationals
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. Seattle Mariners
24. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
25. Chicago White Sox
26. San Francisco Giants
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
29. Colorado Rockies
30. Cincinnati Reds

PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Pitching
Power Rankings

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. New York Mets
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Cleveland Indians
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Tampa Bay Rays
10. Chicago Cubs
11. San Francisco Giants
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Atlanta Braves
14. Kansas City Royals
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Cincinnati Reds
17. Colorado Rockies
18. Houston Astros
19. Minnesota Twins
20. St. Louis Cardinals
21. Oakland A's
22. Milwaukee Brewers
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
24. Detroit Tigers
25. Washington Nationals
26. Seattle Mariners
27. Florida Marlins
28. San Diego Padres
29. Baltimore Orioles
30. Texas Rangers
Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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PEVA Player Grade
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

Coming in 2009
Batting Postseason Player Grades
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