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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player



Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing club (if former club offered arbitration).  Former club also receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type A Free Agent player.

Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf






Stat Geek Baseball


Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis


Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2010 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal.  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter, and the upcoming Stat Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2009 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2010 Contracts  2010 Free Agents
   
Free Agent Headline
Marlon Byrd signs $15,000,000 three year contract with Chicago Cubs.

SPRO Analysis
Cubs get bargain for Byrd.  He's not the sexy pick, that was last year's debacle with undependable Milton Bradley.  So picking up Byrd is like staying within the rules of the gameboard, but he's been a productive everyday outfielder for the last three years that SPRO predicts is worth $19,628,000 over the next three.

Free Agent Headline
Jason Bay signs $66,000,000 four year contract with vesting option for fifth year at $14,000,000 with New York Mets.

SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Bay.  Okay, a little over market value, but this is a New York team where they always overpay a little, or a lot. They got off pretty good with the amount of years, which seems where teams this year are trying to be thrifty, but overall SPRO projections had him through the first four years of his projected contract at $63,754,000 and even would have guaranteed more years.  He'll be a solid addition, and is not as bad in the field as many think.  Although his 2009 fielding stats may be a bit skewed by the narrow confines of left field in Fenway.

Free Agent Headline
Mark DeRosa signs $12,000,000 two year contract with San Francisco.

SPRO Analysis
Giants pay market value for DeRosa.  This seems to be the kind of player that San Francisco signs in the post-Bonds era.  Tough, gritty, who put up good numbers somewhere else his last year there, but might not approach them in park by the bay.  But this is a good signing at only two year numbers.  SPRO projections had DeRosa at 3 years and $20,825,000, close to the yearly numbers in the actual contract.

Free Agent Headline
Matt Capps signs $3,500,000 contract with Washington with $425,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals overpay for Capps.  He's been dipping pretty good since his PEVA high of 12.057 two years ago with an ERA that's going in the wrong direction (2.28, 3.02, 5.80), so we think the Nationals are giving out this contract on the hope that a young guy like Capps can rebound.  He might, but the SPRO projection of $2,800,000 in 2010 is more like it while they wait and see.
Free Agent Headline
Darren Oliver signs $3,500,000 contract with option $3,250,000 option in 2011 with Texas.  Option vests with 59 games pitched in 2010.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers get bargain in Oliver.  Yes, we know he's old, late 30s, but he's been good, and for some reason, people like the younger version of Oliver who isn't as good to him.  See Fernando Rodney below.  For two seasons in a row, Oliver had a sub 3.00 ERA as a relief pitcher.  Rodney likes to give up almost two runs per game more.  SPRO projections for Oliver are for a $4,571,000 contract in 2010, and he deserves more years to boot.

Free Agent Headline
Fernando Rodney gets 2 year $11,000,000 contart with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles.

SPRO Analysis
Angels overpay for Rodney.  They didn't just overpay, they grossly overpaid.  Now they may be thinking of Rodney as a possible closer somewhere in those two years, but he's not a closer any team with postseason aspirations should aspire to.  A 4.40 ERA in 2010 followed a 4.91 in 2009 and a 4.26 in 2008.  Pretty consistently average to middling and in a pitcher's park in Detroit.  This will not turn out good for LA in our opinion.  SPRO projections for Rodney were only $2,199,000 for one year.


Free Agent Headline
Jason Marquis signs 2 year $15,000,000 contract with Washington.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals get bargain in Marquis.  It's not a huge bargain, but the Innings Jason will provide the Nationals will be invaluable.  Yes, his market value dipped as he struggled down the stretch, but don't forget where he pitched.  It's still Colorado, folks, even with a humidor, and if you can post a 4.04 ERA in that park, you should have a lot easier time in the confinses of Nationals Park.  SPRO projections called for a 2010 salary of $8,645,000 and a four year $36 million contract.


Free Agent Headline
Ryan Langerhans signs Minor League contract with Seattle, paying $525,000 in the majors and $90,000 in the minors.

SPRO Analysis

Mariners pay market value for Langerhans.  SPRO projection was $613,000.

Free Agent Headline
Nick Johnson signs $5,500,000 contract with New York Yankees with $5.5 to $7 million option for 2011 based on plate appearances in 2010.  There are $1 million in performance bonuses based on plate appearances as well.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees overpay for Johnson.  When healthy, Nick is worth a whole lot more than the SPRO projection or the Yankees salary, but that's the crux of the problem, he rarely is.  But that doesn't deter the Yankees from ever pushing out dollars above market value, and this is no different.  SPRO projections called for a 2 year deal worth $7,749,000.


Free Agent Headline
R.A. Dickey signs minor league contract with New York Mets worth $600,000 if on the major league roster with $150,000 in performance incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Dickey.  SPRO projection $615,000.


Free Agent Headline
Coco Crisp signs $5,250,000 contract with $5,750,000 club option for 2011 with Oakland.

SPRO Analysis
A's overpay for Crisp.  Not something the Athletics usually do in the Billy Beane era is push out more dollars than a player is worth, but with Coco, we think they just did.  SPRO projections call for 2 years at a total of $5,324,000.  Yes, we're colored by his injury prone season in 2009, but they should be, too.
Free Agent Headline
Roy Halladay signs 3 year $60,000,000 extension to 2010 contract of $15,750,000 with Philadelphia.  In includes a 4th year vesting option for $20,000,000.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Halladay.  Sure, technically not a free agent contract, but an extension, most people think the Phils got a great bargain in this deal, and yes, the fact that the out years are not guaranteed is very good.  However, the numbers are not that far off market value to say the dollars are more than a slight bargain.  Folks, there are only two teams paying out those $22,000,000 plus per year contracts (can we say New York) and only so many slots on those teams that can be filled.  Halladay was worth a 6 year $117,900,000 contract ($19,650,000) per the SPRO projection model; he now has a 4 year $75,750,000 contract ($18,937,500 per) with an option and that includes the one year on the old contract still in play.
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History
Arbitration Eligible
Headline

Just in Case You

Think the SPRO

Salary Projection

and

Stat Geek Baseball 2010


Can Only Do Free

Agent Projections,

Take a Look at How

Well It Handles

Pre-Free

Agent/Arbitration

Eligible Players

Mark Teahen signs $14,000,000 3 year deal with White Sox.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $14,894,000 3 year deal.

Actual Contract
2010 - $3,750,000
2011 - $4,750,000
2012 - $5,500,000

SPRO Projection

2010 - $4,100,000
2011 - $5,304,000
2012 - $5,490,000

Blaine Boyer signs
$750,000  deal with Diamondbacks.  Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Projection, $576,000.


Free Agent Headline
John Buck signs $2,000,000 contract with Toronto.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays pay market value for Buck.  We think it's a little high, but sometimes that's to be expected with a catcher when the new club may be thinking about expanding his role.  SPRO projection pegged him at $1,742,000.
Free Agent Headline
John Lackey signs 5 year contract worht $80 and $87.5 million with Boston. (details pending)

SPRO Analysis
Red sox pay market value for Lackey.  With an SPRO projection calling for one less year and $65,497,000, the average annual salary is right in the ballpark with the numbers being bantered about.  We're a little concerned with the trend of Lackey's career, however, as the pay given out reaches back three years to better times.  But so be it, we guess.  That's how baseball pays it's players, and sometimes makes it's mistakes.
Free Agent Headline
Mike Cameron signs 2 year $15,500,000 contract with Boston.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox pay market value for Cameron.  Yes, he's getting up in age (36), but this man's been remarkably consistent in his career.  SPRO projection called for a 2010 salary of $7,7440,000 and a contract length going out one more year.
Free Agent Headline
Garrett Atkins signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with $8,500,000 team option with Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles pay market value for Atkins.  Non-tendered by Colorado, but valued by Baltimore, Atkins has been on the wane as a player for the last four years, but the potential, and his good past, makes him a valuable gamble on a one year deal.  SPRO projects him at 3 year and $15,318,000, paying him $4,217,000 in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Mike Gonzalez signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles greatly overpay for Gonzalez.  It's been awhile since Baltimore made really good personnel decisions and we're afraid this might not be one of them.  Not that Gonzalez didn't have a good year last year and isn't a good pitcher, but he's had his share of injuries.  I would have liked to see him put two years in a row together before offering up this contract, although the Orioles seem to be intending to up his use to closer, but part-time closer in Atlanta, which legitimately ups his value.  SPRO projections saw a 2 year $5,602,000 contract.

Free Agent Headline
Jamey Carroll signs 2 year $3,850,000 contract with Dodgers.  Deal includes $525,000 per year in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Carroll.  SPRO projection, one year at $1,882,000.
Free Agent Headline
Angel Berroa signs minor league contract paying $600,000 majors/$81,000 minors with Los Angeles Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Berroa.  SPRO projection right on the majors numbers of $600,000.
Free Agent Headline
Josh Towers signs minor league contract paying $700,000 majors/$100,000 minors with Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Towers.  SPRO projection $559,000.
Free Agent Headline
Ross Gload signs 2 year $2,600,000 contract with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Gload.  Almost lost in the hubbub of the Halladay trade talk was the signing of Gload to be the fifth outfielder, and it's understandable why.  Not sure why a two year deal, but the numbers seem right.  SPRO projection one year at $1,612,000.
Free Agent Headline
Hideki Matsui gets 1 year $6,500,000 contract with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

SPRO Analysis
Angels get market value in Matsui.  Yes, it is market value, but they've got a bargain in the amount of years.  Hideki is primarily a DH now, so it's understandable that he got only a one year contract, but the SPRO projection model says that he deserves more at about the same dollars given.  SPRO 2010 for $6,787,000.
Free Agent Headline
J.J. Putz gets 1 year $3,000,000 deal with White Sox.  Deal includes $3,000,000 incentives for games finished, and $250,000 for number of appearances.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox get market value for Putz.  With an SPRO contract projection of $3,177,000, you can see that the White Sox were right on target with their guaranteed money.  Where they got creative was in the incentives, which is fine, because it only puts them on the line with positive performances.  SPRO also projected a second year on the contract, but both parties here likely determined that they'd like to have the first year to determine how he would be used, and approach that second year down the line, either in Chicago or somewhere else.
Free Agent Headline
Jason Kendall gets 2 year $6,000,000 deal with Kansas City.

SPRO Analysis
Royals get bargan in Kendall.  Sure, he may not be the Kendall of old, but if this works out that Jason is the starting catcher in KC for two years, then the Royals got them a very good deal.  Sure, his production at the plate has been down, but not behind it.  SPRO projections called for a 3 year contract @ $14,709,000 with a 2010 salary of $4,735,000.  This signging may be one of several indications that older players are not going to get additional years added to their deals as in past years; we'll just have to wait and see how that works out.
Free Agent Headline
Elmer Dessens gets 1 year minor league deal to stay with the Mets.  The split contract would pay him $700,000 in the majors and $90,000 in the minors.  There are $150,000 in bonuses based on appearances.

SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Dessens.  It's a good deal for the Mets because it's a split contract, but overall, if Dessens is on the Mets roster in 2010, the deal is market value.  Even though he'll be 39 in 2010, Dessens 2009 season with a 3.31 ERA over 28 appearances is nothing to sneeze at.  SPRO projected him at $980,000, which includes both salary and bonus payments.
Free Agent Headline
Pedro Feliz gets 1 year $4,500,000 deal with Houston.

SPRO Analysis
Astros get bargan in Feliz.  Yeh, I know, you hear the argument all the time that Feliz, from an offensive standpoint, was near the bottom of third baseman in OPS.  Okay.  We get it.  But you may be forgetting that a third baseman also fields his position, too.  And he does have value in the offensive end; those 82 RBI are not chump change.  All told.  We think the Astros did very well for themselves, with the SPRO projection noting a one year contract 2 $6,812,000, and a three year contract not out of line.
Free Agent Headline
Brandon Lyon gets 3 year $15,000,000 deal with Houston. (This is a preliminary agreement)

SPRO Analysis
Astros pay market value for Lyons.  We think the third year might be a bit much, but the money seems right.  With an SPRO projection for a two year contract worth $9,760,000 ($4,509,000/$4,667,00), the first two years are right on target with a third year as a limited gamble.
Free Agent Headline
Rich Harden gets 1 year $7,500,000 deal with incentives of $250,000 from Texas.  He also has a mutual option for 2011 at $11,500,000.  Buyout is $1,000,000 and is included in 1 year price.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Harden.  One of those pitchers who it's tough to figure out length of contract due to injury problems in the past, the Rangers paid an appropriate amount for his service in 2010 (SPRO listed at $7,092,000) while being prudent with an option for 2011 at a high price. SPRO projections pegged Harden for two additional years and a three year contract worth $22,029,000.
Free Agent Headline
Latroy Hawkins signs 2 year $7,500,000 contract with Milwaukee.

SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Hawkins.  SPRO predicted that Hawkins would get a two year contract worth $7,632,000.
Free Agent Headline
Randy Wolf gets 3 year $29,750,000 deal and $10 million option for 4th year with Milwaukee. (This is a preliminary agreement)

SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Wolf.  SPRO is right on the money with the Brewers deal for Wolf, projecting the former Dodger pitcher at 4 years and $39,783,000 and a 2010 salary of $9,438,000.  Wolf is the kind of pitcher who scares you a bit due to past injury problems, but he had his best season ever last year and has now won at least 11 games for two years in a row.  It's market value for a pitcher like that, who if he can pitch again in 2010 like he did in 2009, will be well worth the coin for the Brew crew in need of pitching.
Free Agent Headline
Andy Pettitte signs $11,750,000 one year deal to stay with Yankees.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees get market value for Pettitte.  Okay, it's slightly higher than market value for one year, but not much, and considering that Andy could have warranted more years than this somewhere else, it seems more than fair.  And probably prudent to go one year at a time.  SPRO projections see Pettitte as worth a three year contract @ 32,473,000 or the first year at $10,454,000.
Free Agent Headline
Ivan Rodriguez signs 2 year $6,000,000 deal with Washington.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals get good bargain in Pudge.  It's always hard to determine value when the amount of use of a player is changing, plus begin a bit up in the air, too, in the coming season.  But since it appears that Rodriguez will back up Jesus Flores, with the possibility of more time if he's still not recovered from his injury, it seems like Washington did well to sign Rodriguez for those numbers. SPRO projections calculated a 2 year contract at $8,132,000, considering use over the last three years.
Free Agent Headline
Brad Penny signs $7,500,000 with $1.5 million in incentives to pitch for St. Louis.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals get bargain in Penny.  Teams may have gotten scared because of the first part of the year with Boston when Penny put up an ERA of 5.61, which followed only 95 IP in 2008, but his stint with the stint with the Giants included a 2.59 ERA of 41.7 IP at the end of the year and he's just two years removed from a 21.790 PEVA.  Enigmatic.  Yes.  But at 31, there's a good chance of having a good pitcher with Penny, at least for that one year.  SPRO projections show that the Cardinals would not have been out of line with a contract at $11 million, even offering him up to three years.  This may not be the year to get that, with economic conditions such as they are though, but for one year @ a maximum of $9 million, Cardinals did good shopping.
Free Agent Headline
Chone Figgins signs 4 year $36,000,000 deal to move to Seattle.  Deal could vest for extra year at $9m, making the total value 5 years and $45,000,000..

SPRO Analysis
Mariners get market value in Figgins.  Still pending a physical at the time of this evaluation, Figgins had his best year in 2009, increasing his value to his free agent team.  SPRO projections note that Chone is worth a 4 year contract @ $38,272,000.  Pretty right on the money.
Free Agent Headline
Marco Scutaro signs 2 year $12,500,000 deal with Boston. Deal is structured with $1 million signing bonus and salaries of $5 million each in the next two years.  It also a $6m team option in 2011; $3m player option, and a $1.5 million buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox get a good deal with Scutaro.  Marco had a great year last year in Toronto, a year which would have payed him $11 million if you went only by that year.  But, of course, that wouldn't be right or accurate.  Scutaro's 2009 year was his best by far, and while it may be a blip versus a trend, the Red Sox got a good deal in the gamble.  SPRO projections note that Scutaro's contract is valued at 3 years and $23,949,000.
Free Agent Headline
Gregg Zaun signs $2,150,000 deal to play with Milwaukee in 2010.  Deal includes a $2,250,000 option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Zaun.  SPRO contract projection pegged Zaun's value at $1,970,000 in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Billy Wagner signs $7,000,000 deal with $6.5 million option a second year to pitch for the Braves.  Option guaranteed with 50 games finished in 2010.

SPRO Analysis
Braves overpay for Wagner.  It's not just about the money, although that's where we'll start.  Sure, Wagner was hurt last year and will do better in 2010, but let's not expect the Wagner of old.  He's been regressing for years now, with PEVA player ratings that have declined every year since  2005.  At that time, he was at 16.057 PEVA (All-Star level), followed by years of 12.638, 10.484, 9.636, and 0.200 in 2009.  At 38 years of age, that's a pretty noticeable decline. Expect Wagner at about a 5.000 PEVA for 2010, perhaps at most, and his value from SPRO is for a 2 year contract worth $5,383,000, paying $2,645,000 in 2010.  Now for the second reason.  The Braves just gave up their first round draft pick, too, to get him.  Oh, my!
Free Agent Headline
Brian Schneider signs 2 year $2,750,000 deal with Philadelphia.  Deal pays $1.25 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011 with additional performance incentives per playing time.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies get value in Schneider.  Schneider has always been a valuable commodity from the defensive end and will make a good addition to the catching corps of the Phils backing up Ruiz.  SPRO projections had his contract value at $2,094,000 for one year, which includes all salary and bonus payments.
Free Agent Headline
Takashi Saito signs $3,200,000 deal with $2.3 million in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Braves get good deal with Saito.  There's been a bit of a downplay to Saito's accomplishments over the last couple years, and rightly so last season, but the contract, largely performance based, is right in line with SPRO's $5.78 million deal (which includes both salary and incentives).  In fact, SPRO notes a longer term, three years, but the Braves may be more prudent with this number, considering his age.
Free Agent Headline
Placido Polanco signs 3 year $18,000,000 deal with Phillies.  Includes mutual option for 4th year @ $5.5 million with $1 million buyout.  Includes $250,000 per season in performance bonuses.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies get good deal with Polanco.  I know it's not the sexy move or even a move I'm that in favor of as a Philly fan.  Kinda worried the team is only signing older players.  But that's no knock on the solid contributor Polanco is to any team.  Solid defensively.  Gives you a good at bat all the time.  Now he's waned a bit the last couple years and at 34 years of age, that's some concern.  But overall, a good sign at a good price.  SPRO salary projections pegged Polanco at 3 years and $23,713,000.
Free Agent Headline
Henry Blanco signs $1,500,000 deal with Mets.

SPRO Analysis
There might be more to the contract above than meets the eye when full details are known, but the catching situation (Chris Coste also signed) and other young catchers make knowing whether they got a backup, starter, or parttime starter hard to evaluate the contract.  SPRO calculate his value at $1,236,000 at the same use status of last year.
Free Agent Headline
Juan Castro signs $750,000 deal with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Castro.  Although we're always a bit curious to why contending clubs almost always choose the aging veteran to back up its starters, Castro is worth that type of money.  SPRO projections peg him at $850,000 in 2010.
More Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis
Shibe Park, Philadelphia, baseballevaluation.com     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: 2009 statistics through October 6, 2009.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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