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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players. Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker
and see
just what we're talking about.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing
club (if former club offered arbitration). Former club also
receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type
A Free Agent player.
Jason
Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel,
Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg,
LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie
Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano,
Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf
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Stat Geek Baseball
Free
Agent 2010 Contract Analysis
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Below you
will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the
2010 season. Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a
steal. Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat
Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.
And if you want even more information, before or after the
signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free
Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter,
and the upcoming Stat
Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which
includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the
2009 season or all players in baseball history.
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Free Agent 2010 Contracts 2010
Free Agents
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Free Agent Headline
Marlon Byrd signs
$15,000,000 three year contract with Chicago Cubs.
SPRO Analysis
Cubs get bargain for Byrd. He's not the sexy pick, that was last
year's debacle with undependable Milton Bradley. So picking up Byrd is
like staying within the rules of the gameboard, but he's been a
productive everyday outfielder for the last three years that SPRO
predicts is worth $19,628,000 over the next three.
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Free Agent Headline
Jason Bay signs
$66,000,000 four year contract with vesting option for fifth year at $14,000,000 with New York Mets.
SPRO Analysis
Mets
pay market value for Bay. Okay, a little over market value, but this
is a New York team where they always overpay a little, or a lot. They
got off pretty good with the amount of years, which seems where teams
this year are trying to be thrifty, but overall SPRO projections had
him through the first four years of his projected contract at
$63,754,000 and even would have guaranteed more years. He'll be a
solid addition, and is not as bad in the field as many think. Although
his 2009 fielding stats may be a bit skewed by the narrow confines of
left field in Fenway.
Free Agent Headline
Mark DeRosa signs
$12,000,000 two year contract with San Francisco.
SPRO Analysis
Giants
pay market value for DeRosa. This seems to be the kind of player that
San Francisco signs in the post-Bonds era. Tough, gritty, who put up
good numbers somewhere else his last year there, but might not approach
them in park by the bay. But this is a good signing at only two year
numbers. SPRO projections had DeRosa at 3 years and $20,825,000, close
to the yearly numbers in the actual contract.
Free Agent Headline
Matt Capps signs
$3,500,000 contract with Washington with $425,000 in incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Nationals
overpay for Capps. He's been dipping pretty good since his PEVA high
of 12.057 two years ago with an ERA that's going in the wrong direction
(2.28, 3.02, 5.80), so we think the Nationals are giving out this
contract on the hope that a young guy like Capps can rebound. He
might, but the SPRO projection of $2,800,000 in 2010 is more like it
while they wait and see. |
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Free Agent Headline
Darren Oliver signs
$3,500,000 contract with option $3,250,000 option in 2011 with Texas. Option vests with 59 games pitched in 2010.
SPRO Analysis
Rangers
get bargain in Oliver. Yes, we know he's old, late 30s, but he's been
good, and for some reason, people like the younger version of Oliver
who isn't as good to him. See Fernando Rodney below. For two seasons
in a row, Oliver had a sub 3.00 ERA as a relief pitcher. Rodney likes
to give up almost two runs per game more. SPRO projections for Oliver
are for a $4,571,000 contract in 2010, and he deserves more years to
boot.
Free Agent Headline
Fernando Rodney gets
2 year $11,000,000 contart with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles.
SPRO Analysis
Angels
overpay for Rodney. They didn't just overpay, they grossly overpaid.
Now they may be thinking of Rodney as a possible closer somewhere in
those two years, but he's not a closer any team with postseason
aspirations should aspire to. A 4.40 ERA in 2010 followed a 4.91 in
2009 and a 4.26 in 2008. Pretty consistently average to middling and
in a pitcher's park in Detroit. This will not turn out good for LA in
our opinion. SPRO projections for Rodney were only $2,199,000 for one
year.
Free Agent Headline
Jason Marquis signs
2 year $15,000,000 contract with Washington.
SPRO Analysis
Nationals
get bargain in Marquis. It's not a huge bargain, but the Innings Jason
will provide the Nationals will be invaluable. Yes, his market value
dipped as he struggled down the stretch, but don't forget where he
pitched. It's still Colorado, folks, even with a humidor, and if you
can post a 4.04 ERA in that park, you should have a lot easier time in
the confinses of Nationals Park. SPRO projections called for a 2010
salary of $8,645,000 and a four year $36 million contract.
Free Agent Headline
Ryan Langerhans signs
Minor League contract with Seattle, paying $525,000 in the majors and $90,000 in the minors.
SPRO Analysis
Mariners pay market value for Langerhans. SPRO projection was $613,000.
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Free Agent Headline
Nick Johnson signs
$5,500,000 contract with New York Yankees with $5.5 to $7 million
option for 2011 based on plate appearances in 2010. There are $1
million in performance bonuses based on plate appearances as well.
SPRO Analysis
Yankees
overpay for Johnson. When healthy, Nick is worth a whole lot more than
the SPRO projection or the Yankees salary, but that's the crux of the
problem, he rarely is. But that doesn't deter the Yankees from ever
pushing out dollars above market value, and this is no different. SPRO
projections called for a 2 year deal worth $7,749,000.
Free Agent Headline
R.A. Dickey signs
minor league contract with New York Mets worth $600,000 if on the major league roster with $150,000 in performance incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Dickey. SPRO projection $615,000.
Free Agent Headline
Coco Crisp signs
$5,250,000 contract with $5,750,000 club option for 2011 with Oakland.
SPRO Analysis
A's
overpay for Crisp. Not something the Athletics usually do in the Billy
Beane era is push out more dollars than a player is worth, but with
Coco, we think they just did. SPRO projections call for 2 years at a
total of $5,324,000. Yes, we're colored by his injury prone season in
2009, but they should be, too. |
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Free Agent Headline
Roy Halladay signs
3 year $60,000,000 extension to 2010 contract of $15,750,000 with
Philadelphia. In includes a 4th year vesting option for
$20,000,000.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies
pay market value for Halladay. Sure, technically not a free agent
contract, but an extension, most people think the Phils got a great
bargain in this deal, and yes, the fact that the out years are not
guaranteed is very good. However, the numbers are not that far
off market value to say the dollars are more than a slight bargain.
Folks, there are only two teams paying out those $22,000,000 plus
per year contracts (can we say New York) and only so many slots on
those teams that can be filled. Halladay was worth a 6 year
$117,900,000 contract ($19,650,000) per the SPRO projection model; he
now has a 4 year $75,750,000 contract ($18,937,500 per) with an option
and that includes the one year on the old contract still in play. |
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Arbitration Eligible
Headline |
Just in Case You
Think the SPRO
Salary Projection
and
Stat Geek Baseball 2010
Can Only Do Free
Agent Projections,
Take a Look at How
Well It Handles
Pre-Free
Agent/Arbitration
Eligible Players
Mark Teahen signs
$14,000,000 3 year deal with White Sox. Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $14,894,000 3 year deal.
Actual Contract
2010 - $3,750,000
2011 - $4,750,000
2012 - $5,500,000
SPRO Projection
2010 - $4,100,000
2011 - $5,304,000
2012 - $5,490,000
Blaine Boyer signs
$750,000 deal with Diamondbacks. Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Projection, $576,000.
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Free Agent Headline
John Buck signs $2,000,000 contract with Toronto.
SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays
pay market value for Buck. We think it's a little high, but
sometimes that's to be expected with a catcher when the new club may be
thinking about expanding his role. SPRO projection pegged him at
$1,742,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
John Lackey signs 5 year contract worht $80 and $87.5 million with Boston. (details pending)
SPRO Analysis
Red sox pay market value for Lackey. With an SPRO projection
calling for one less year and $65,497,000, the average annual salary is
right in the ballpark with the numbers being bantered about.
We're a little concerned with the trend of Lackey's career,
however, as the pay given out reaches back three years to better times.
But so be it, we guess. That's how baseball pays it's
players, and sometimes makes it's mistakes. |
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Free Agent Headline
Mike Cameron signs 2 year $15,500,000 contract with Boston.
SPRO Analysis
Red Sox pay market value for Cameron. Yes, he's getting up in age
(36), but this man's been remarkably consistent in his career.
SPRO projection called for a 2010 salary of $7,7440,000 and a
contract length going out one more year. |
Free Agent Headline
Garrett Atkins signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with $8,500,000 team option with Baltimore.
SPRO Analysis
Orioles pay market value for Atkins. Non-tendered by Colorado,
but valued by Baltimore, Atkins has been on the wane as a player for
the last four years, but the potential, and his good past, makes him a
valuable gamble on a one year deal. SPRO projects him at 3 year
and $15,318,000, paying him $4,217,000 in 2010.
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Free Agent Headline
Mike Gonzalez signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Baltimore.
SPRO Analysis
Orioles
greatly overpay for Gonzalez. It's been awhile since Baltimore
made really good personnel decisions and we're afraid this might not be
one of them. Not that Gonzalez didn't have a good year last year
and isn't a good pitcher, but he's had his share of injuries. I
would have liked to see him put two years in a row together before
offering up this contract, although the Orioles seem to be intending to
up his use to closer, but part-time closer in Atlanta, which
legitimately ups his value. SPRO projections saw a 2 year
$5,602,000 contract.
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Free Agent Headline
Jamey Carroll signs 2 year $3,850,000 contract with Dodgers. Deal includes $525,000 per year in incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Carroll. SPRO projection, one year at $1,882,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Angel Berroa signs minor league contract paying $600,000 majors/$81,000 minors with Los Angeles Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis
Dodgers
pay market value for Berroa. SPRO projection right on the majors numbers of $600,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Josh Towers signs minor league contract paying $700,000 majors/$100,000 minors with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis
Dodgers
pay market value for Towers. SPRO projection $559,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Ross Gload signs 2 year $2,600,000 contract with Philadelphia.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies
pay market value for Gload. Almost lost in the hubbub of the Halladay
trade talk was the signing of Gload to be the fifth outfielder, and
it's understandable why. Not sure why a two year deal, but the numbers
seem right. SPRO projection one year at $1,612,000. |
Free Agent Headline
Hideki Matsui gets 1 year $6,500,000 contract with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
SPRO Analysis
Angels get market value in Matsui. Yes, it is market value, but
they've got a bargain in the amount of years. Hideki is primarily a DH
now, so it's understandable that he got only a one year contract, but
the SPRO projection model says that he deserves more at about the same
dollars given. SPRO 2010 for $6,787,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
J.J. Putz gets
1 year $3,000,000 deal with White Sox. Deal includes $3,000,000
incentives for games finished, and $250,000 for number of appearances.
SPRO Analysis
White Sox get market value for Putz. With an SPRO contract
projection of $3,177,000, you can see that the White Sox were right on
target with their guaranteed money. Where they got creative was
in the incentives, which is fine, because it only puts them on the line
with positive performances. SPRO also projected a second year on
the contract, but both parties here likely determined that they'd like
to have the first year to determine how he would be used, and approach
that second year down the line, either in Chicago or somewhere else. |
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Free Agent Headline
Jason Kendall gets 2 year $6,000,000 deal with Kansas City.
SPRO Analysis
Royals
get bargan in Kendall. Sure, he may not be the Kendall of old,
but if this works out that Jason is the starting catcher in KC for two
years, then the Royals got them a very good deal. Sure, his
production at the plate has been down, but not behind it. SPRO
projections called for a 3 year contract @ $14,709,000 with a 2010
salary of $4,735,000. This signging may be one of several
indications that older players are not going to get additional years
added to their deals as in past years; we'll just have to wait and see
how that works out. |
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Free Agent Headline
Elmer Dessens gets
1 year minor league deal to stay with the Mets. The split
contract would pay him $700,000 in the majors and $90,000 in the
minors. There are $150,000 in bonuses based on appearances.
SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Dessens. It's a good deal for the Mets
because it's a split contract, but overall, if Dessens is on the Mets
roster in 2010, the deal is market value. Even though he'll be 39
in 2010, Dessens 2009 season with a 3.31 ERA over 28 appearances is
nothing to sneeze at. SPRO projected him at $980,000, which
includes both salary and bonus payments. |
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Free Agent Headline
Pedro Feliz gets 1 year $4,500,000 deal with Houston.
SPRO Analysis
Astros
get bargan in Feliz. Yeh, I know, you hear the argument all the time
that Feliz, from an offensive standpoint, was near the bottom of third
baseman in OPS. Okay. We get it. But you may be forgetting that a
third baseman also fields his position, too. And he does have value in
the offensive end; those 82 RBI are not chump change. All told. We
think the Astros did very well for themselves, with the SPRO projection
noting a one year contract 2 $6,812,000, and a three year contract not
out of line. |
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Free Agent Headline
Brandon Lyon gets 3 year $15,000,000 deal with Houston. (This is a preliminary agreement)
SPRO Analysis
Astros pay market value for Lyons. We think the third year might
be a bit much, but the money seems right. With an SPRO projection
for a two year contract worth $9,760,000 ($4,509,000/$4,667,00), the
first two years are right on target with a third year as a limited
gamble. |
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Free Agent Headline
Rich Harden gets
1 year $7,500,000 deal with incentives of $250,000 from Texas. He
also has a mutual option for 2011 at $11,500,000. Buyout is
$1,000,000 and is included in 1 year price.
SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Harden. One of those pitchers who
it's tough to figure out length of contract due to injury problems in
the past, the Rangers paid an appropriate amount for his service in
2010 (SPRO listed at $7,092,000) while being prudent with an option for
2011 at a high price. SPRO projections pegged Harden for two additional
years and a three year contract worth $22,029,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Latroy Hawkins signs 2 year $7,500,000 contract with Milwaukee.
SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Hawkins. SPRO predicted that Hawkins would get a two year contract worth $7,632,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Randy Wolf gets 3 year $29,750,000 deal and $10 million option for 4th year with Milwaukee. (This is a preliminary agreement)
SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Wolf. SPRO is right on the money
with the Brewers deal for Wolf, projecting the former Dodger pitcher at
4 years and $39,783,000 and a 2010 salary of $9,438,000. Wolf is
the kind of pitcher who scares you a bit due to past injury problems,
but he had his best season ever last year and has now won at least 11
games for two years in a row. It's market value for a pitcher
like that, who if he can pitch again in 2010 like he did in 2009, will
be well worth the coin for the Brew crew in need of pitching. |
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Free Agent Headline
Andy Pettitte signs
$11,750,000 one year deal to stay with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis
Yankees get market value for Pettitte. Okay, it's slightly higher
than market value for one year, but not much, and considering that Andy
could have warranted more years than this somewhere else, it seems more
than fair. And probably prudent to go one year at a time.
SPRO projections see Pettitte as worth a three year contract @
32,473,000 or the first year at $10,454,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Ivan Rodriguez signs
2 year $6,000,000 deal with Washington.
SPRO Analysis
Nationals get good bargain in Pudge. It's always hard to
determine value when the amount of use of a player is changing, plus
begin a bit up in the air, too, in the coming season. But since
it appears that Rodriguez will back up Jesus Flores, with the
possibility of more time if he's still not recovered from his injury,
it seems like Washington did well to sign Rodriguez for those numbers.
SPRO projections calculated a 2 year contract at $8,132,000,
considering use over the last three years. |
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Free Agent Headline
Brad Penny signs
$7,500,000 with $1.5 million in incentives to pitch for St. Louis.
SPRO Analysis
Cardinals get bargain in Penny. Teams may have gotten scared
because of the first part of the year with Boston when Penny put up an
ERA of 5.61, which followed only 95 IP in 2008, but his stint with the
stint with the Giants included a 2.59 ERA of 41.7 IP at the end of the
year and he's just two years removed from a 21.790 PEVA.
Enigmatic. Yes. But at 31, there's a good chance of
having a good pitcher with Penny, at least for that one year.
SPRO projections show that the Cardinals would not have been out
of line with a contract at $11 million, even offering him up to three
years. This may not be the year to get that, with economic
conditions such as they are though, but for one year @ a maximum of $9
million, Cardinals did good shopping. |
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Free Agent Headline
Chone Figgins signs
4 year $36,000,000 deal to move to Seattle. Deal could vest for
extra year at $9m, making the total value 5 years and $45,000,000..
SPRO Analysis
Mariners get market value in Figgins. Still pending a physical at
the time of this evaluation, Figgins had his best year in 2009,
increasing his value to his free agent team. SPRO projections
note that Chone is worth a 4 year contract @ $38,272,000. Pretty
right on the money. |
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Free Agent Headline
Marco Scutaro signs
2 year $12,500,000 deal with Boston. Deal is structured with $1 million
signing bonus and salaries of $5 million each in the next two years.
It also a $6m team option in 2011; $3m player option, and a $1.5
million buyout.
SPRO Analysis
Red Sox get a good deal with Scutaro. Marco had a great year last
year in Toronto, a year which would have payed him $11 million if you
went only by that year. But, of course, that wouldn't be right or
accurate. Scutaro's 2009 year was his best by far, and while it
may be a blip versus a trend, the Red Sox got a good deal in the
gamble. SPRO projections note that Scutaro's contract is valued
at 3 years and $23,949,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Gregg Zaun signs $2,150,000 deal to play with Milwaukee in 2010. Deal includes a $2,250,000 option for 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Zaun. SPRO contract projection pegged Zaun's value at $1,970,000 in 2010. |
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Free Agent Headline
Billy Wagner signs
$7,000,000 deal with $6.5 million option a second year to pitch for the
Braves. Option guaranteed with 50 games finished in 2010.
SPRO Analysis
Braves overpay for Wagner. It's not just about the money,
although that's where we'll start. Sure, Wagner was hurt last
year and will do better in 2010, but let's not expect the Wagner of
old. He's been regressing for years now, with PEVA player ratings
that have declined every year since 2005. At that time, he
was at 16.057 PEVA (All-Star level), followed by years of 12.638,
10.484, 9.636, and 0.200 in 2009. At 38 years of age, that's a
pretty noticeable decline. Expect Wagner at about a 5.000 PEVA for
2010, perhaps at most, and his value from SPRO is for a 2 year contract
worth $5,383,000, paying $2,645,000 in 2010. Now for the second
reason. The Braves just gave up their first round draft pick,
too, to get him. Oh, my! |
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Free Agent Headline
Brian Schneider signs
2 year $2,750,000 deal with Philadelphia. Deal pays $1.25 million
in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011 with additional performance
incentives per playing time.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies get value in Schneider. Schneider has always been a
valuable commodity from the defensive end and will make a good addition
to the catching corps of the Phils backing up Ruiz. SPRO
projections had his contract value at $2,094,000 for one year, which
includes all salary and bonus payments. |
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Free Agent Headline
Takashi Saito signs
$3,200,000 deal with $2.3 million in incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Braves get good deal with Saito. There's been a bit of a downplay
to Saito's accomplishments over the last couple years, and rightly so
last season, but the contract, largely performance based, is right in
line with SPRO's $5.78 million deal (which includes both salary and
incentives). In fact, SPRO notes a longer term, three years, but
the Braves may be more prudent with this number, considering his age. |
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Free Agent Headline
Placido Polanco signs
3 year $18,000,000 deal with Phillies. Includes mutual option for
4th year @ $5.5 million with $1 million buyout. Includes $250,000
per season in performance bonuses.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies get good deal with Polanco. I know it's not the sexy
move or even a move I'm that in favor of as a Philly fan. Kinda
worried the team is only signing older players. But that's no
knock on the solid contributor Polanco is to any team. Solid
defensively. Gives you a good at bat all the time. Now he's
waned a bit the last couple years and at 34 years of age, that's some
concern. But overall, a good sign at a good price. SPRO
salary projections pegged Polanco at 3 years and $23,713,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Henry Blanco signs $1,500,000 deal with Mets.
SPRO Analysis
There might be more to the contract above than meets the eye when full
details are known, but the catching situation (Chris Coste also signed)
and other young catchers make knowing whether they got a backup,
starter, or parttime starter hard to evaluate the contract. SPRO
calculate his value at $1,236,000 at the same use status of last year. |
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Free Agent Headline
Juan Castro signs
$750,000 deal with Philadelphia.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Castro. Although we're always a bit
curious to why contending clubs almost always choose the aging veteran
to back up its starters, Castro is worth that type of money. SPRO
projections peg him at $850,000 in 2010. |
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More Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis
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Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: 2009
statistics through October 6, 2009. Option data source:
Cott's Baseball Contracts.
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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