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Stat
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More Unique Stats
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Hickory Stick At!
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players. Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker
and see
just what we're talking about.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing
club (if former club offered arbitration). Former club also
receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type
A Free Agent player.
Jason
Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel,
Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg,
LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie
Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano,
Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf
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Stat Geek Baseball
Free
Agent 2010 Contract Analysis
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Below you
will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the
2010 season. Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a
steal. Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat
Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.
And if you want even more information, before or after the
signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free
Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter,
and the upcoming Stat
Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which
includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the
2009 season or all players in baseball history.
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Free Agent 2010 Contracts 2010
Free Agents
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Free Agent Headline
Fernando Tatis signs
$850,000 contract with New York Mets.
SPRO Analysis
Mets get bargain in Tatis. Geez, it's not like we're big Tatis
fans and we know he's not destined for a starting role this year unless
injuries hit the Mets again, but there's not a whole lot of love being
shown to Fernando after he stepped in so well in 2009. Well,
that's business for you. But the Mets are getting a bargain here
even for a reserve role. SPRO projection $2,251,000 in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Xavier Nady signs
$3,300,000 contract with Chicago Cubs with $2,050,000 in performance incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Nady. The contract plus incentives
number is right on target as SPRO (including incentives) oted a salary
of $5,668,000, but it is a prudent bargain considering the injury
plagued season Nady had in 2009. But don't be surprised if Nady
goes on to have the best season of any Cubs outfielder.
Free Agent Headline
Jose Contreras signs
$1,500,000 contract with Philadelphia.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Contreras. We're not sure why Ruben
Amaro is collecting all seniors for his backup plans, unless there's
some AARP promotion at the park coming in 2010, but this contract is
appropriate for Contreras. SPRO projection $1,643,000.
Free Agent Headline
Jason Giambi signs
$1,750,000 contract with Colorado.
SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Giambi. It's a slight bargain with
SPRO at $2,217,000, but Jason is likely a very good fit for this club
as a backup plan and reserve to Todd Helton.
Free Agent Headline
Tyler Walker signs
$650,000/$120,000 minor league deal with Washington.
SPRO Analysis
Nationals get bargain in Walker. We're talking a team witha
pitiful pitching staff in 2009 and Tyler is certainly an upgrade to
their bullpen. It's a bit of a surprise, however, that he is not
worth a guaranteed contract, not at high numbers, but at the SPRO price
of $843,000. Just try to find a whole lot of pitchers who sported
a 3.09 ERA playing for a team in a hitter's park like Philadelphia.
Well, I guess Washington has just found one.
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Free Agent Headline
Miguel Cairo signs
$500,000 contract (Minor League Deal) with Cincinnati with $150,000
incentives. Contract guaranteed if he's added to the 40 man
roster.
SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value for Cairo. It's a slight bargain, but
barely, for a player who will likely shuttle between AAA and the Majors
in 2010 like he did for Philly in 2009. SPRO projection $850,000.
Free Agent Headline
Tim Redding signs
$1,000,000 contract (Minor League Deal) with Colorado, including
$700,000 in performance bonuses. Contract guaranteed if added to
the 40 man roster.
SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Redding. No, he wasn't great for
Washington last year, but who was, and it can't be easy to pitch for a
team that's going through some motions from June on. But Redding
can give you innings, and SPRO projection calls for a salary of
$2,868,000 in 2010. We're getting to the point right now in
contract season where the remaining free agents will all, most likely,
be some sort of bargain. Seems the worm has turned in a buyer's
market. Better sign soon, Johnny Damon, it's not looking to good
for the remnants of this free agent season.
Free Agent Headline
Randy Winn signs
$2,000,000 contract with New York Yankees with $1,100,000 guaranteed
and $900,000 in performance bonuses based on plate appeances, total
guaranteed with 200 PA.
SPRO Analysis
Yankees get bargain in Winn. Yes, this is a signing that not only
impacts Mr. Damon, but again indicates a bargain for the club. We
know that Winn will now be asked to take a changed role from prior in
his career and that this signing is somewhat about him wanting to play
for a winning team, but Winn is only one year removed from 10HR,
64 RBI, and a 0.306 AVE in that pitcher's park in San Francisco.
We know he's 35 now, but this looks like a great pickup for the
Yanks to us. SPRO projection (as if he were still a starter) is
$7,393,000.
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Free Agent Headline
Jon Garland signs
$5,300,000 contract with San Diego with $6,750,000 mutual option for 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Padres
get bargain in Garland. In spacious Petco Park, it can create a
lot of good things for average plus pitchers. The Padres have got
a good deal here with a pitcher who won 11 games last year with a 4.01
ERA. Look for the ERA to go south. SPRO projection called
for a 2010 salary of $7,827,000 and a three year deal in the
neighborhood of $24 million was not out of line.
Free Agent Headline
Jim Thome signs
$1,500,000 contract with Minnesota.
SPRO Analysis
Twins get bargain in Thome. Yes, he's been going down here for
four years in a row, but this man is still productive. Now we know with
Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, etc., his role here is going to be reduced.
However, if need arises, THome will still produce good enough
numbers to warrent more than the amount paid. SPRO projection
$3,874,000.
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Free Agent Headline
Miguel Tejada signs
$6,000,000 contract to return to Baltimore.
SPRO Analysis
Orioles
get bargain in Tejada. I know the bloom has been off the Tejada rose
since the PED allegations, but he keeps putting up pretty good numbers.
14 HR, 86 RBI, 0.313. That's worth more than the $6 million given.
SPRO projection was $11,219,000 for 2010. This could be the Bobby
Abreu situation of last year repeating itself once again.
Free Agent Headline
Rafael Betancourt signs
$7,550,000 2 year contract with Colorado.
SPRO Analysis
Rockies
pay market value for Betancourt. Well, it's actually market value
light and a bit of a bargain as Rafael is worth an SPRO projection of
$8,586,000 over those two years. But who's quibbling in that Colorado
altitude. If you can get a pitcher unafraid of the humidor, you've got
yourself a bargain right off the perverbial bat.
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Free Agent Headline
Bengie Molina signs
$4,500,000 contract to return to San Francisco, including an additional
$1,500,000 in performance bonuses based on games started.
SPRO Analysis
Giants
get bargain in Molina. We know he's getting older, but look around
baseball, there are not many 20 HR, 80 RBI guys with a good defensive
pedigree playing catcher anymore. SPRO projection called for a
$6,856,000 contract in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Doug Davis signs $5,250,000
deal with Milwaukee with $1 million in performance incentives.
Contract also includes mutual option for $6.5 million in 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Brewers
get bargain in Davis. Again, a player that's getting older, but put up
a 4.12 ERA in a hitter's park in Arizona last year. It's not one of
those sexy signs for players we think are great, but aren't any longer.
It's a sign for a player who can fill in the 3rd or 4th slot in the
rotation and do better than okay with it. SPRO projected a salary of
$7,710,000 in 2010.
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Arbitration Eligible
Headline |
Just in Case You
Think the SPRO Salary Projection and Stat Geek Baseball 2010 Can Only Do Free Agent Projections, Take a Look at How Well It Handles
Pre-Free Agent/Arbitration
Eligible Players
Huston Street signs
$23,000,000 3 year deal with Rockies. Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $23,236,000 3 year deal.
Josh Johnson signs
$39,000,000 4 year deal with Marlins. Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $36,020,000 4 year deal.
Mark Teahen signs
$14,000,000 3 year deal with White Sox. Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $14,894,000 3 year deal.
Actual Contract
2010 - $3,750,000
2011 - $4,750,000
2012 - $5,500,000
SPRO Projection
2010 - $4,100,000
2011 - $5,304,000
2012 - $5,490,000
Try Us Out
Stat
Geek Baseball 2010
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Free Agent Headline
Rick Ankiel signs
$3,250,000 contract with Kansas City that include mutual option for 2011 at $6 million. This is a pending agreement.
SPRO Analysis
Royals
pay market value for Ankiel. The Royals are counting on Ankiel
rebounding from a subpar year in 2009 and Ankiel's hope for that
rebound is shown in the mutual option for a higher number in 2011.
Overall, not a bad sign at all. SPRO projected a 2010 salary of
$2,880,000 and a guaranteed second year.
Free Agent Headline
Octavio Dotel signs $3,500,000 deal with Pittsburgh with $4.5 million optoin for 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Pirates
overpay for Dotel. It's slight, and comes mostly from our opinion that
a change of status (the Pirates expect Dotel to be their closer) should
not be assumed, but based on the past few years of Dotel in a setup
role, his SPRO was $2,096,000 for 2010. None of us know if he'll
really end of being their closer or not.
Free Agent Headline
Vincente Padilla signs
$5,025,000 contract to stay with Los Angeles Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Padilla. Yes, Padilla is an enigmatic guy with
that store bought Indian countenance and a checkered past, both on and
off the mound, so that's a good reason why the number given was lower
than it would have been, going purely on past stats. Past stats put his
SPRO at $6,287,000 in 2010 with a second year on the line for about the
same dough. |
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Free Agent Headline
Joel Pineiro signs
2 year $16,000,000 deal with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
SPRO Analysis
Angels
get get bargain in Pineiro. Pineiro is one of those players that's
hard to project, mainly because his season last year was so much better
than he'd been for several. That said, we think this is a good deal
for the Angels as Pineiro could end up being better than Lackey for a
lower price. SPRO projection for two years was $19,768,000. And in
another year, he might have gotten more years, too.
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Free Agent Headline
Adam LaRoche signs
$6,000,000 deal with Arizona, including a 2011 mutual option for 2011 at $7,500,000.
SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks
get bargain in LaRoche. Yes, we know he traveled a long road in 2009
with three teams seemingly not wanting his services, but LaRoche was a
productive player who is a bargain at $6 million guaranteed. SPRO
projection $8,377,000 in 2010 and LaRoche deserves a three year
contract, too.
Free Agent Headline
Mike Redmond signs
$850,000 deal with Cleveland.
SPRO Analysis
Indians pay market value for Redmond. Right on the money. SPRO $850,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Jose Valverde signs
$14,000,000 two year deal with Detroit Tigers. Deal includes $9 million option for 2012. Preliminary deal.
SPRO Analysis
Tigers
pay market value for Valverde. Seems like a good fit for us with
Detroit's need at the back end of the bullpen. SPRO projection called
for a 3 year contract at $21,806,000 and $7,020,000 in 2010. |
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Free Agent Headline
Ryan Church signs
$1,500,000 deal with $1,320,000 incentives with Pittsburgh Pirates. Deal is pending a physical.
SPRO Analysis
Pirates
get bargain in Church. It's hard to say it's a bargain due to the
injury problems Church had in 2009, so a deal with alot of incentives
is prudent. SPRO projections pegged Church with a salary of $2,900,000
in 2010. SPRO salaries include all incentives.
Free Agent Headline
Ramon Castro signs
$1,000,000 deal to stay with Chicago White Sox. There is a club option
for 2011 at $1,200,000. Deal structure $800,000 in 2010 with $200,000
buyout if option not exercised.
SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value for Castro. SPRO projection for 2010 is $1,098,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Vladimir Guerrero signs
$5,500,000 deal with incentives with Texas Rangers, and includes a mutual option for 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay
market value for Guerrero. Sliding over the last couple years, but
certainly worth the gamble. SPRO projection $5,818,000.
Free Agent Headline
Aubrey Huff signs
$3,000,000 deal with San Francisco. This is a pending preliminary deal
SPRO Analysis
Giants
get bargain in Huff. Although Huff dipped in 2009, at 33 years of age,
he's not far removed from very good years. SPRO projection $7,794,000.
This is a bargain for the city by the bay, who are slowly building a
solid team behind a great pitching staff.
Free Agent Headline
Scott Podsednik signs
$1,750,000 deal with Kansas City, including $250,000 in performance
incentives and a club option for 2011 at $2 million with $300,000
incentives.
SPRO Analysis
Royals
get bargain in Podsednik. Kansas City is slowly building a team behind
their pitching staff as well, and even though they're further behind
contention than San Francisco is, this deal is a good one. Podsednik
hit 0.304 with 30 steals last year and has an SPRO projection of
$2,866,000 in 2010 and is worth a second year on the deal as well.
Free Agent Headline
Brett Myers signs
$5,000,000 deal with Houston, including performances incentives and a mutual option for 2011. This is a pending preliminary deal
SPRO Analysis
Astros
pay market value for Myers. Collecting his Philly past once again, GM
Ed Wade adds loopy, but talented right hander Brett Myers to the
Houston equation in 2010. Myers has his problems, not the least of
which are injuries in recent years and trouble matching his talent with
outcomes, but there is talent here. SPRO projections say 2 years at
$11,451,000 and a 2010 salary of $5,627,000. |
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Free Agent Headline
Matt Holliday signs
$120,000,000 deal for 7 years with St. Louis. Deal includes vesting option for $17,000,000 for 8th year.
SPRO Analysis
Cardinals pay market value for Holliday. One year longer
than we'd suggest, but the dollar figures are even slightly lower for
reupping Holliday to his new team of last year, so it's a good bargain
overall. SPRO projections called for a 6 year contract at
$111,974,000. Now what's it gonna take to keep Albert here
alongside him long term.
Free Agent Headline
Dannys Baez signs
2 year $5,250,000 deal with Philadelphia.
SPRO Analysis
Phillies overpay for Baez. Way too much! Way too much! What
is it with general managers who think mediocre relief pitchers who you
can replace with a minor leaguer are worth way more than they are.
This is a pitcher who has been too spotty over the last four
years to offer this much money and a second year. 2.715, 0.000,
0.978, and 2.531 PEVA from 2009 to 2006 respectively. An ERA of
4.02 in 2009, which was better than his 6.44 in 2007 or in either of
his stints in 2006. Baez didn't pitch in 2008, so it's not like
he has a good durability past. SPRO projection called for a 2010
salary of $1,242,000 with no second year.
Free Agent Headline
Juan Uribe signs $3,250,000 contract with San Francisco.
SPRO Analysis
Giants
pay market value for Uribe. SPRO 2010 projection of $3,350,000 with a second year added as well.
Free Agent Headline
Troy Glaus signs $1,750,000 contract with $2,250,000 in incentives with Atlanta.
SPRO Analysis
Bravers get bargain in Glaus. Sure, he's an injury risk, but
Glaus has been a preeminent power hitter in the past, and this is one
time a club has gotten off cheap. If Troy comes anywhere near his
past prime numbers, a $4 million contract is light. SPRO
projections called for $7,760,000 in 2010. |
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Free Agent Headline
Adrian Beltre signs
$10,000,000 deal with Boston with $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 vesting option for 2011.
SPRO Analysis
Red
Sox overpay for Beltre. Yes, he had that great year with the Dodgers a
long time ago and he's thought of highly in many circles due to good
defense and thoughts of yesteryear. But, Beltre has been on the
downslide even not considering the Dodger year. His PEVA numbers have
gone from 12.940 to 11.870 to 10.005 to 4.411 for the last four years.
That's not a good trend and it shouldn't be ignored. We're okay with
paying Beltre a decent salary, but anything close to $10,000,000 is way
out of line. Think $5,761,000 for 2010 according to SPRO and a three
year contract at about that number would be okay.
Free Agent Headline
Tyler Yates signs
minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $950,000 majors/$300,000 minors.
SPRO Analysis
Pirates pay market value for Yates. A bit high on the majors side, but
the minor league kicker puts the SPRO $740,000 projection in line
overall.
Free Agent Headline
Brian Burres signs minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $550,000 majors/$100,000 minors.
SPRO Analysis
Pirates
pay market value for Burres. We're not crazy about pumping up players
who the club thinks might not even make the majors much past the major
league minimum of $400,000 and that's what SPRO says as well with a
$427,000 projection, but considering the minor league option, it's in
line with today's salaries.
Free Agent Headline
Neal Cotts signs minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $900,000 majors/$120,000 minors.
SPRO Analysis
Pirates
overpay for Cotts. This is one instance where we think the majors
number is too high, even considering the club out of a minor league
assignment. SPRO projection for Cotts in 2010 is $580,000. |
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More Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis
November Signings
December Signings
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Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: 2009
statistics through October 6, 2009. Option data source:
Cott's Baseball Contracts.
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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