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Stat Geek Baseball 2010

More Unique Stats
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player



Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing club (if former club offered arbitration).  Former club also receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type A Free Agent player.

Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf






Stat Geek Baseball


Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis


Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2010 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal.  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter, and the upcoming Stat Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2009 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2010 Contracts  2010 Free Agents
   
Free Agent Headline
Fernando Tatis signs $850,000 contract with New York Mets.

SPRO Analysis
Mets get bargain in Tatis.  Geez, it's not like we're big Tatis fans and we know he's not destined for a starting role this year unless injuries hit the Mets again, but there's not a whole lot of love being shown to Fernando after he stepped in so well in 2009.  Well, that's business for you.  But the Mets are getting a bargain here even for a reserve role.  SPRO projection $2,251,000 in 2010.

Free Agent Headline
Xavier Nady signs $3,300,000 contract with Chicago Cubs with $2,050,000 in performance incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Nady.  The contract plus incentives number is right on target as SPRO (including incentives) oted a salary of $5,668,000, but it is a prudent bargain considering the injury plagued season Nady had in 2009.  But don't be surprised if Nady goes on to have the best season of any Cubs outfielder.

Free Agent Headline
Jose Contreras signs $1,500,000 contract with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Contreras.  We're not sure why Ruben Amaro is collecting all seniors for his backup plans, unless there's some AARP promotion at the park coming in 2010, but this contract is appropriate for Contreras.  SPRO projection $1,643,000.

Free Agent Headline
Jason Giambi signs $1,750,000 contract with Colorado.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Giambi.  It's a slight bargain with SPRO at $2,217,000, but Jason is likely a very good fit for this club as a backup plan and reserve to Todd Helton.

Free Agent Headline
Tyler Walker signs $650,000/$120,000 minor league deal with Washington.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals get bargain in Walker.  We're talking a team witha pitiful pitching staff in 2009 and Tyler is certainly an upgrade to their bullpen.  It's a bit of a surprise, however, that he is not worth a guaranteed contract, not at high numbers, but at the SPRO price of $843,000.  Just try to find a whole lot of pitchers who sported a 3.09 ERA playing for a team in a hitter's park like Philadelphia.  Well, I guess Washington has just found one.


Free Agent Headline
Miguel Cairo signs $500,000 contract (Minor League Deal) with Cincinnati with $150,000 incentives.  Contract guaranteed if he's added to the 40 man roster.

SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value for Cairo.  It's a slight bargain, but barely, for a player who will likely shuttle between AAA and the Majors in 2010 like he did for Philly in 2009.  SPRO projection $850,000.

Free Agent Headline
Tim Redding signs $1,000,000 contract (Minor League Deal) with Colorado, including $700,000 in performance bonuses.  Contract guaranteed if added to the 40 man roster.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Redding.  No, he wasn't great for Washington last year, but who was, and it can't be easy to pitch for a team that's going through some motions from June on.  But Redding can give you innings, and SPRO projection calls for a salary of $2,868,000 in 2010.  We're getting to the point right now in contract season where the remaining free agents will all, most likely, be some sort of bargain.  Seems the worm has turned in a buyer's market.  Better sign soon, Johnny Damon, it's not looking to good for the remnants of this free agent season.

Free Agent Headline
Randy Winn signs $2,000,000 contract with New York Yankees with $1,100,000 guaranteed and $900,000 in performance bonuses based on plate appeances, total guaranteed with 200 PA.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees get bargain in Winn.  Yes, this is a signing that not only impacts Mr. Damon, but again indicates a bargain for the club.  We know that Winn will now be asked to take a changed role from prior in his career and that this signing is somewhat about him wanting to play for a winning team, but Winn is only one year removed from 10HR,  64 RBI, and a 0.306 AVE in that pitcher's park in San Francisco.  We know he's 35 now, but this looks like a great pickup for the Yanks to us.  SPRO projection (as if he were still a starter) is $7,393,000.

.
Free Agent Headline
Jon Garland signs $5,300,000 contract with San Diego with $6,750,000 mutual option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Padres get bargain in Garland.  In spacious Petco Park, it can create a lot of good things for average plus pitchers.  The Padres have got a good deal here with a pitcher who won 11 games last year with a 4.01 ERA.  Look for the ERA to go south.  SPRO projection called for a 2010 salary of $7,827,000 and a three year deal in the neighborhood of $24 million was not out of line.

Free Agent Headline
Jim Thome signs $1,500,000 contract with Minnesota.

SPRO Analysis
Twins get bargain in Thome.  Yes, he's been going down here for four years in a row, but this man is still productive. Now we know with Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, etc., his role here is going to be reduced.  However, if need arises, THome will still produce good enough numbers to warrent more than the amount paid.  SPRO projection $3,874,000.
Free Agent Headline
Miguel Tejada signs $6,000,000 contract to return to Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles get bargain in Tejada.  I know the bloom has been off the Tejada rose since the PED allegations, but he keeps putting up pretty good numbers.  14 HR, 86 RBI, 0.313.  That's worth more than the $6 million given.  SPRO projection was $11,219,000 for 2010.  This could be the Bobby Abreu situation of last year repeating itself once again.

Free Agent Headline
Rafael Betancourt signs $7,550,000 2 year contract with Colorado.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies pay market value for Betancourt.  Well, it's actually market value light and a bit of a bargain as Rafael is worth an SPRO projection of $8,586,000 over those two years.  But who's quibbling in that Colorado altitude.  If you can get a pitcher unafraid of the humidor, you've got yourself a bargain right off the perverbial bat.

Free Agent Headline
Bengie Molina signs $4,500,000 contract to return to San Francisco, including an additional $1,500,000 in performance bonuses based on games started.

SPRO Analysis
Giants get bargain in Molina.  We know he's getting older, but look around baseball, there are not many 20 HR, 80 RBI guys with a good defensive pedigree playing catcher anymore.  SPRO projection called for a $6,856,000 contract in 2010.


Free Agent Headline
Doug Davis signs $5,250,000 deal with Milwaukee with $1 million in performance incentives.  Contract also includes mutual option for $6.5 million in 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Brewers get bargain in Davis.  Again, a player that's getting older, but put up a 4.12 ERA in a hitter's park in Arizona last year.  It's not one of those sexy signs for players we think are great, but aren't any longer.  It's a sign for a player who can fill in the 3rd or 4th slot in the rotation and do better than okay with it.  SPRO projected a salary of $7,710,000 in 2010.


TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History
Arbitration Eligible
Headline
Just in Case You
Think the SPRO Salary Projection and Stat Geek Baseball 2010
Can Only Do Free Agent Projections, Take a Look at How Well It Handles
Pre-Free Agent/Arbitration
Eligible Players


Huston Street signs $23,000,000 3 year deal with Rockies.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $23,236,000 3 year deal.


Josh Johnson signs $39,000,000 4 year deal with Marlins.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $36,020,000 4 year deal.

Mark Teahen
signs $14,000,000 3 year deal with White Sox.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $14,894,000 3 year deal.

Actual Contract
2010 - $3,750,000
2011 - $4,750,000
2012 - $5,500,000

SPRO Projection

2010 - $4,100,000
2011 - $5,304,000
2012 - $5,490,000

Try Us Out
Stat Geek Baseball 2010
Arbitration Players

2010 Filings/
Figures Exchanged

Free Agent Headline
Rick Ankiel signs $3,250,000 contract with Kansas City that include mutual option for 2011 at $6 million.  This is a pending agreement.

SPRO Analysis
Royals pay market value for Ankiel.  The Royals are counting on Ankiel rebounding from a subpar year in 2009 and Ankiel's hope for that rebound is shown in the mutual option for a higher number in 2011.  Overall, not a bad sign at all.  SPRO projected a 2010 salary of $2,880,000 and a guaranteed second year.


Free Agent Headline
Octavio Dotel signs $3,500,000 deal with Pittsburgh with $4.5 million optoin for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates overpay for Dotel.  It's slight, and comes mostly from our opinion that a change of status (the Pirates expect Dotel to be their closer) should not be assumed, but based on the past few years of Dotel in a setup role, his SPRO was $2,096,000 for 2010.  None of us know if he'll really end of being their closer or not.


Free Agent Headline
Vincente Padilla signs $5,025,000 contract to stay with Los Angeles Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Padilla.  Yes, Padilla is an enigmatic guy with that store bought Indian countenance and a checkered past, both on and off the mound, so that's a good reason why the number given was lower than it would have been, going purely on past stats. Past stats put his SPRO at $6,287,000 in 2010 with a second year on the line for about the same dough.
Free Agent Headline
Joel Pineiro signs 2 year $16,000,000 deal with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

SPRO Analysis
Angels get get bargain in Pineiro.  Pineiro is one of those players that's hard to project, mainly because his season last year was so much better than he'd been for several.  That said, we think this is a good deal for the Angels as Pineiro could end up being better than Lackey for a lower price.  SPRO projection for two years was $19,768,000.  And in another year, he might have gotten more years, too.

Free Agent Headline
Adam LaRoche signs $6,000,000 deal with Arizona, including a 2011 mutual option for 2011 at $7,500,000.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks get bargain in LaRoche.  Yes, we know he traveled a long road in 2009 with three teams seemingly not wanting his services, but LaRoche was a productive player who is a bargain at $6 million guaranteed.  SPRO projection $8,377,000 in 2010 and LaRoche deserves a three year contract, too.


Free Agent Headline
Mike Redmond signs $850,000 deal with Cleveland.

SPRO Analysis

Indians pay market value for Redmond.  Right on the money.  SPRO $850,000.
Free Agent Headline
Jose Valverde signs $14,000,000 two year deal with Detroit Tigers.  Deal includes $9 million option for 2012.  Preliminary deal.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers pay market value for Valverde.  Seems like a good fit for us with Detroit's need at the back end of the bullpen.  SPRO projection called for a 3 year contract at $21,806,000 and $7,020,000 in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Ryan Church signs $1,500,000 deal with $1,320,000 incentives with Pittsburgh Pirates.  Deal is pending a physical.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates get bargain in Church.  It's hard to say it's a bargain due to the injury problems Church had in 2009, so a deal with alot of incentives is prudent.  SPRO projections pegged Church with a salary of $2,900,000 in 2010.  SPRO salaries include all incentives.


Free Agent Headline
Ramon Castro signs $1,000,000 deal to stay with Chicago White Sox.  There is a club option for 2011 at $1,200,000.  Deal structure $800,000 in 2010 with $200,000 buyout if option not exercised. 

SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value for Castro.  SPRO projection for 2010 is $1,098,000.
Free Agent Headline
Vladimir Guerrero signs $5,500,000 deal with incentives with Texas Rangers, and includes a mutual option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Guerrero.  Sliding over the last couple years, but certainly worth the gamble.  SPRO projection $5,818,000.


Free Agent Headline
Aubrey Huff signs $3,000,000 deal with San Francisco.  This is a pending preliminary deal

SPRO Analysis
Giants get bargain in Huff.  Although Huff dipped in 2009, at 33 years of age, he's not far removed from very good years.  SPRO projection $7,794,000.  This is a bargain for the city by the bay, who are slowly building a solid team behind a great pitching staff.


Free Agent Headline
Scott Podsednik signs $1,750,000 deal with Kansas City, including $250,000 in performance incentives and a club option for 2011 at $2 million with $300,000 incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Royals get bargain in Podsednik.  Kansas City is slowly building a team behind their pitching staff as well, and even though they're further behind contention than San Francisco is, this deal is a good one.  Podsednik hit 0.304 with 30 steals last year and has an SPRO projection of $2,866,000 in 2010 and is worth a second year on the deal as well.


Free Agent Headline
Brett Myers signs $5,000,000 deal with Houston, including performances incentives and a mutual option for 2011.  This is a pending preliminary deal

SPRO Analysis
Astros pay market value for Myers.  Collecting his Philly past once again, GM Ed Wade adds loopy, but talented right hander Brett Myers to the Houston equation in 2010.  Myers has his problems, not the least of which are injuries in recent years and trouble matching his talent with outcomes, but there is talent here.  SPRO projections say 2 years at $11,451,000 and a 2010 salary of $5,627,000.
Free Agent Headline
Matt Holliday signs $120,000,000 deal for 7 years with St. Louis.  Deal includes vesting option for $17,000,000 for 8th year.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals pay market value for Holliday.  One year longer than we'd suggest, but the dollar figures are even slightly lower for reupping Holliday to his new team of last year, so it's a good bargain overall.  SPRO projections called for a 6 year contract at $111,974,000.  Now what's it gonna take to keep Albert here alongside him long term.


Free Agent Headline
Dannys Baez signs 2 year $5,250,000 deal with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies overpay for Baez.  Way too much!  Way too much! What is it with general managers who think mediocre relief pitchers who you can replace with a minor leaguer are worth way more than they are.  This is a pitcher who has been too spotty over the last four years to offer this much money and a second year.  2.715, 0.000, 0.978, and 2.531 PEVA from 2009 to 2006 respectively.  An ERA of 4.02 in 2009, which was better than his 6.44 in 2007 or in either of his stints in 2006.  Baez didn't pitch in 2008, so it's not like he has a good durability past.  SPRO projection called for a 2010 salary of $1,242,000 with no second year.

Free Agent Headline
Juan Uribe signs $3,250,000 contract with San Francisco.

SPRO Analysis
Giants pay market value for Uribe.  SPRO 2010 projection of $3,350,000 with a second year added as well.


Free Agent Headline
Troy Glaus signs $1,750,000 contract with $2,250,000 in incentives with Atlanta.

SPRO Analysis
Bravers get bargain in Glaus.  Sure, he's an injury risk, but Glaus has been a preeminent power hitter in the past, and this is one time a club has gotten off cheap.  If Troy comes anywhere near his past prime numbers, a $4 million contract is light.  SPRO projections called for $7,760,000 in 2010.
Free Agent Headline
Adrian Beltre signs $10,000,000 deal with Boston with $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 vesting option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox overpay for Beltre.  Yes, he had that great year with the Dodgers a long time ago and he's thought of highly in many circles due to good defense and thoughts of yesteryear.  But, Beltre has been on the downslide even not considering the Dodger year.  His PEVA numbers have gone from 12.940 to 11.870 to 10.005 to 4.411 for the last four years.  That's not a good trend and it shouldn't be ignored.  We're okay with paying Beltre a decent salary, but anything close to $10,000,000 is way out of line.  Think $5,761,000 for 2010 according to SPRO and a three year contract at about that number would be okay.


Free Agent Headline
Tyler Yates signs minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $950,000 majors/$300,000 minors.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates pay market value for Yates.  A bit high on the majors side, but the minor league kicker puts the SPRO $740,000 projection in line overall.

Free Agent Headline
Brian Burres signs minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $550,000 majors/$100,000 minors.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates pay market value for Burres.  We're not crazy about pumping up players who the club thinks might not even make the majors much past the major league minimum of $400,000 and that's what SPRO says as well with a $427,000 projection, but considering the minor league option, it's in line with today's salaries.


Free Agent Headline
Neal Cotts signs minor league deal with Pittsburgh for $900,000 majors/$120,000 minors.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates overpay for Cotts.  This is one instance where we think the majors number is too high, even considering the club out of a minor league assignment.  SPRO projection for Cotts in 2010 is $580,000.

More Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis


November Signings
December Signings

 
Shibe Park, Philadelphia, baseballevaluation.com     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: 2009 statistics through October 6, 2009.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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