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Stat
Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Details
Best
Ever Book
Digital
Edition
Publication
Date: 11/5/2012
UPDATED THRU
THE 2012
POSTSEASON
The
Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!
Kindle/Computer Edition
Great
gift for the baseball
fan in your life.
Paperback
Amazon.com
Barnes
and Noble
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
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Stat Geek Baseball
Hot
Stove League 2012
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It's
that time of year. The season and World Series are done and
your
teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the
playoffs next year. And there are questions aplenty.
What
free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could
garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave? Who is
arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that
player or cut him free? What are your favorite players worth
anyway?
Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek
Baseball
will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as
well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's
opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed
player. Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out
well.
Happy stoving!
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The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings
Find
out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid,
what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary
Projection system, and more.
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Week of August 5,
2013
Players Re-Sign with Club
Chase Utley signs
2 year $27m contract extension from 2014-2015. Including $5m bonus in
2015 and vesting options for 2016-8 with 500 plate appearances in
preceeding year. Club options would replace vesting options if
below 500 plate appearances.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays
market value for Utley. This is a kinda market value deal.
We're okay with the guarantee, having him at 3 years and $25.186
million per SPRO, but we'd get an extra year out of it. Problem
is, Utley is having the kind of year in 2013 that warrants this
contract, but it's his first year in three that that's the case.
So it's an overpay on a per year basis and market value on an
overall basis. Since the extra years are vesting with durability
kickins, there's guarantees on both sides. We're okay with it.
Week of July 22,
2013
Players Re-Sign with Club
Dustin Pedroia signs
7 year $100m contract extension from 2015-2021. Including already
signed for $11m in 2014 numbers, this is a contract worth $111m over 8
years or $13.875m per year.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays
market value for Pedroia. He's having a great season, perhaps
even better than his MVP year (although we didn't agree with that award
at that time.) If we assume he continues at this pace, with a
PEVA Score for 2013 at around 20.000, then Pedroia is worth
approxmately $15,610,000 per year right now. So we have no
problem with the average annual value, in fact, it might be low.
But the years are a stretch, for anyone. SPRO would be at
around 5 years and $78m, assuming the above.
Week of May 10,
2013
Players Re-Sign with Club
Anthony Rizzo signs
7 year $41m contract, with $3m incentives, 2 club option years in addition at $14.5m each with $2m buyouts with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago
overpays for Rizzo. It's just too early in the game to do this.
I know it's a calculated gamble that the player, who in his first
couple seasons, looks like a stellar cornerstone for the franchise and
you've locked him up for nine years. But, there's too many
instances of players who don't progress in this game. Should have
waited at least one more season. SPRO can't get past letting him
play out this season at $524,000 and going from there.
Week of April 22,
2013
Players Re-Sign with Club
Jose Valverde signs
1 year $2m contract, with $3m incentives with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit
gets bargain in Valverde. The last free agent to sign and he's
back with the Tigers. Yes, last year didn't end well for
Valverde, being replaced in the playoffs as closer, but Jose has had a
good run in Detroit. This incentive laden deal is good for the
club. SPRO, prorated for the five months left in the season, is
$6,185,000.
Week of March 25,
2013
Free Agent Players
Kyle Lohse signs
3 year $33m contract, with $1m incentives with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee
gets bargain in Lohse. This was a likely destination for
Lohse
for awhile, with the Brewers needing to stabilize a rotation until the
youngsters were ready. Lohse provides that and more.
In
fact, since he turned 30, Lohse has been one of the better pitchers in
the NL, especially last year. SPRO 4 years $68,125,000.
That's
$17m per year and we're talking $11m-$12m with incentives in the actual
contract.
Jon Garland signs
1 year $500,000 contract, with $2m incentives with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado
pays market value for Garland. It's really a bargain
considering
the fact that only $500,000 is guaranteed. But, with
incentives,
it's very close to the SPRO of $2,344,000 for the upcoming season.
Players Re-Sign With Club
Elvis Andrus signs
8 year $120m contract extension with Giants. Total deal now
10 years $131,275,000 and may include out clauses.
SPRO Analysis - Texas
overpays for Andrus. It another instance of contract
insanity, they've given a ten year contract to a middle infielder who
has not passed the 10.000 PEVA mark in any season. Now Andrus
is close to that mark and each year has increased his performance, but
geez, players don't always go in straight lines and ... well, too long,
per year fine, that's all. SPRO 3 years $23,421,000.
Buster Posey signs
9 year $167m contract with Giants, with $22m club option for
10th year and $3m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - San
Francisco
pays market value for Posey, but with a caveat, it's for too many
years. SPRO is right on the money for the 6 years we agree
with,
our projection at $97,989,000 while the actdual contract pays him
$99.3m during that term. The extra years, though, are taking
a
big risk that his career keeps going the way it's gone so far. But he
did have the 3rd best season of any catcher in history last year, so
maybe that's the smart thing to do.
Justin Verlander signs
7 year $180m contract with Tigers, with $22m club option for
8th year.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit
pays market value for Verlander. Highest contract ever for a
pitcher, but we're okay with it. SPRO 8 years $190,770,000.
Alan Goldschmidt signs
5 year $32m contract for 2014-8 ($500,000 in 2013) with Diamondbacks,
with $14.5m club option for 6th year.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
overpays for Goldschmidt. Once again, too long, more than too
much. We'd only go 3 years and $3,868,000 right now, and
since
the deal only buys out one year of free agency, don't quite know the
rush..
Adam Wainwright signs
5 year $97.5m contract extension (2014-8) with Cardinals, plus $12m
for this season. Total value of contract 6 years, $109.5m.
SPRO Analysis - St.
Louis
overpays for Wainwright. We're okay with the average price
per
season (essentially $18.25m when including this season), but this is
for too many years. SPRO 4 years $74,816,000 ($18.7m per).
Wainwright wasn't as good last year as in the years before,
and
2011 he did not pitch. Too many years for us.
Jay Happ signs
2 year $8.9m contract with Blue Jays, with $6.7m club option
for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto
overpays for Happ. Named as the fifth starter with Romero
going
to the minors, a bit too much for us. SPRO 2 years $6,844,000.
More Hot Stove League
Week of March 4,
2013
Free Agent Players
Brennan Boesch signs
1 year $1.5m contract, with $600,000 incentives with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - New
York
gets bargain in Boesch. Well, it's a bargain because of the
incentives. With them, it's right on the money.
SPRO
$2,257,000.
Derek Lowe signs
1 year $1.25m contract (pending making Major League roster), including
$1.7m incentives with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas
gets bargain in Lowe. Yes, he's been trending down and is 39
years old, but Lowe is a pitcher who gives you 150 innings on a regular
basis and might just have a rekindle moment from a couple years ago
that makes this a real good deal, particularly since it is pending his
making the roster. SPRO $5,697,000.
Players Re-Sign With Club
Carlos Gomez signs
3 year $24m contract extension (2014-6) with Brewers, including $4.3m
for this season. Total value of contract 4 years, $28m.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee
overpays for Gomez. To us, this is a significant reach.
Not
that there's a guarantee for an overpay here, but it's based, almost
purely, on one season, and the reach is more in the length than the
numbers. He's worth his $4.3m next year, but we wouldn't be
extending him much beyond a 2 year contract at about the same term.
SPRO 2 years $8,160,000.
Allan Craig signs
5 year $31m contract with Cardinals, with option year for 6th season at
$13m.
SPRO Analysis - St.
Louis overpays for Craig. This might end up being a good deal
in
the long run as Craig certainly was stellar in 2012, but ... this is
likely a little early to go five to six years. SPRO says 3
years
and $8,740,000. The actual contract for those years is $10m.
Chris Sale signs
5 year $33.5m contract with White Sox, with 2 additional option years
for $26m.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago
pays market value for Sale. We think they went one year too
long,
but the dollar figures are pretty good, in fact, maybe a little low
for Sale. SPRO says 4 years $23,356,000. If the
actual
deal were for 4 years, it would grade out at $20,500,000, but they're
guaranteeing a 5th year at $12m, so it's pretty close.
Aaron Crow signs
1 year $1.28m contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas
City
overpays for Crow. This is not really a fault of now, but of
the
contract Crow signed as an amateur and the no more than 20% cut rule.
SPRO $562,000.
Mike Trout signs
1 year $510,000 with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los
Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Trout. Now that's a no brainer
statement, now, isn't it. It was bound to be a bargain just
on
the face of things when you have a rookie with the, probably, second
best rookie season ever behind Joe Jackson way back when. But
even considering the landscape of former high profile 2nd year players
in the pre-arbitration system, this is a low ball offer. SPRO
$1,000,000 just to keep pace with players of the recent past and a
goodwill gesture for future contracts.
Wade Miley signs
1 year contract for $500,500 with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
gets bargain in Miley. SPRO $737,000. Guess with
the
increase in the major league minimum the goodwill gesture for very good
first year players is gone, too. Still a bargain.
Luis Mendoza signs
1 year contract for $532,000 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City
pays market value for Mendoza. SPRO $545,000.
Louis Coleman signs
1 year contract for $511,000 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City
pays market value for Coleman. SPRO $534,000.
Guillermo Moscoso signs
1 year contract for $504,250 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City
pays market value for Mendoza. SPRO $535,000.
Francisley Bueno signs
1 year contract for $492,650 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City
pays market value for Bueno. SPRO $495,000.
Avoiding Arbitration
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nine
players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have
rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.
If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or
second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first
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FREE AGENT CHANGES
There
are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up
what when signed a free agent. Only those that have been
offered
the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not. For those players
signed
by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their
second round pick. The former club gets a
compensatory pick
afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
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More Hot Stove Items
Hot
Stove - November 2012
Hot
Stove - December 2012
Hot
Stove - January 2013
Hot
Stove - February 2013 |
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| Qualifying Offers Extended |
Qualifying Offers Given to Nine
Potential Free Agents
Nine
players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by
their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent
compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd
rounder to the signing team.
- Michael
Bourn, Atlanta
- Josh
Hamilton, Texas
- Adam
LaRoche, Washington
- Kyle
Lohse, St. Louis
- Hiroki
Kuroda, New York Yankees
- Nick
Swisher, New York Yankees
- Rafael
Soriano, New York Yankees
- David
Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
- B.J.
Upton, Tampa Bay
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| Red
Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: PEVA
- Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2012 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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