Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book

Best Ever Book
Digital Edition
Publication Date: 11/5/2012

THE 2012

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Kindle/Computer Edition

Great gift for the baseball
fan in your life.

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.

PEVA Player

 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

Stat Geek Baseball

Hot Stove League 2012

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of August 5, 2013

Players Re-Sign with Club
Chase Utley signs 2 year $27m contract extension from 2014-2015. Including $5m bonus in 2015 and vesting options for 2016-8 with 500 plate appearances in preceeding year.  Club options would replace vesting options if below 500 plate appearances.
SPRO Analysis -  
Philadelphia pays market value for Utley.  This is a kinda market value deal.  We're okay with the guarantee, having him at 3 years and $25.186 million per SPRO, but we'd get an extra year out of it.  Problem is, Utley is having the kind of year in 2013 that warrants this contract, but it's his first year in three that that's the case.  So it's an overpay on a per year basis and market value on an overall basis.  Since the extra years are vesting with durability kickins, there's guarantees on both sides.  We're okay with it.

Week of July 22, 2013

Players Re-Sign with Club
Dustin Pedroia signs 7 year $100m contract extension from 2015-2021. Including already signed for $11m in 2014 numbers, this is a contract worth $111m over 8 years or $13.875m per year.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston pays market value for Pedroia.  He's having a great season, perhaps even better than his MVP year (although we didn't agree with that award at that time.)  If we assume he continues at this pace, with a PEVA Score for 2013 at around 20.000, then Pedroia is worth approxmately $15,610,000 per year right now.  So we have no problem with the average annual value, in fact, it might be low.  But the years are a stretch, for anyone.  SPRO would be at around 5 years and $78m, assuming the above.

Week of May 10, 2013

Players Re-Sign with Club
Anthony Rizzo signs 7 year $41m contract, with $3m incentives, 2 club option years in addition at $14.5m each with $2m buyouts with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago overpays for Rizzo.  It's just too early in the game to do this.  I know it's a calculated gamble that the player, who in his first couple seasons, looks like a stellar cornerstone for the franchise and you've locked him up for nine years.  But, there's too many instances of players who don't progress in this game.  Should have waited at least one more season.  SPRO can't get past letting him play out this season at $524,000 and going from there.

Week of April 22, 2013

Players Re-Sign with Club
Jose Valverde signs 1 year $2m contract, with $3m incentives with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit gets bargain in Valverde.  The last free agent to sign and he's back with the Tigers.  Yes, last year didn't end well for Valverde, being replaced in the playoffs as closer, but Jose has had a good run in Detroit.  This incentive laden deal is good for the club. SPRO, prorated for the five months left in the season, is $6,185,000.

Week of March 25, 2013

Free Agent Players
Kyle Lohse signs 3 year $33m contract, with $1m incentives with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee gets bargain in Lohse.  This was a likely destination for Lohse for awhile, with the Brewers needing to stabilize a rotation until the youngsters were ready.  Lohse provides that and more.  In fact, since he turned 30, Lohse has been one of the better pitchers in the NL, especially last year.  SPRO 4 years $68,125,000. That's $17m per year and we're talking $11m-$12m with incentives in the actual contract.

Jon Garland signs 1 year $500,000 contract, with $2m incentives with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
Colorado pays market value for Garland.  It's really a bargain considering the fact that only $500,000 is guaranteed.  But, with incentives, it's very close to the SPRO of $2,344,000 for the upcoming season.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Elvis Andrus signs 8 year $120m contract extension with Giants.  Total deal now 10 years $131,275,000 and may include out clauses.
SPRO Analysis -
Texas overpays for Andrus.  It another instance of contract insanity, they've given a ten year contract to a middle infielder who has not passed the 10.000 PEVA mark in any season.  Now Andrus is close to that mark and each year has increased his performance, but geez, players don't always go in straight lines and ... well, too long, per year fine, that's all.  SPRO 3 years $23,421,000.

Buster Posey signs 9 year $167m contract with Giants, with $22m club option for 10th year and $3m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco pays market value for Posey, but with a caveat, it's for too many years.  SPRO is right on the money for the 6 years we agree with, our projection at $97,989,000 while the actdual contract pays him $99.3m during that term.  The extra years, though, are taking a big risk that his career keeps going the way it's gone so far. But he did have the 3rd best season of any catcher in history last year, so maybe that's the smart thing to do.

Justin Verlander signs 7 year $180m contract with Tigers, with $22m club option for 8th year.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit pays market value for Verlander.  Highest contract ever for a pitcher, but we're okay with it.  SPRO 8 years $190,770,000.

Alan Goldschmidt signs 5 year $32m contract for 2014-8 ($500,000 in 2013) with Diamondbacks, with $14.5m club option for 6th year.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona overpays for Goldschmidt.  Once again, too long, more than too much.  We'd only go 3 years and $3,868,000 right now, and since the deal only buys out one year of free agency, don't quite know the rush..

Adam Wainwright signs 5 year $97.5m contract extension (2014-8) with Cardinals, plus $12m for this season.  Total value of contract 6 years, $109.5m.
SPRO Analysis -
St. Louis overpays for Wainwright.  We're okay with the average price per season (essentially $18.25m when including this season), but this is for too many years.  SPRO 4 years $74,816,000 ($18.7m per).  Wainwright wasn't as good last year as in the years before, and 2011 he did not pitch.  Too many years for us.

Jay Happ signs 2 year $8.9m contract with Blue Jays, with $6.7m club option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto overpays for Happ.  Named as the fifth starter with Romero going to the minors, a bit too much for us.  SPRO 2 years $6,844,000.

Cheap baseball tickets

More Hot Stove League

Week of March 4, 2013

Free Agent Players
Brennan Boesch signs 1 year $1.5m contract, with $600,000 incentives with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York gets bargain in Boesch.  Well, it's a bargain because of the incentives.  With them, it's right on the money.  SPRO $2,257,000.

Derek Lowe signs 1 year $1.25m contract (pending making Major League roster), including $1.7m incentives with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -
Texas gets bargain in Lowe.  Yes, he's been trending down and is 39 years old, but Lowe is a pitcher who gives you 150 innings on a regular basis and might just have a rekindle moment from a couple years ago that makes this a real good deal, particularly since it is pending his making the roster.  SPRO $5,697,000.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Carlos Gomez signs 3 year $24m contract extension (2014-6) with Brewers, including $4.3m for this season.  Total value of contract 4 years, $28m.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee overpays for Gomez.  To us, this is a significant reach.  Not that there's a guarantee for an overpay here, but it's based, almost purely, on one season, and the reach is more in the length than the numbers.  He's worth his $4.3m next year, but we wouldn't be extending him much beyond a 2 year contract at about the same term.  SPRO 2 years $8,160,000.

Allan Craig signs 5 year $31m contract with Cardinals, with option year for 6th season at $13m.
SPRO Analysis -
St. Louis overpays for Craig.  This might end up being a good deal in the long run as Craig certainly was stellar in 2012, but ... this is likely a little early to go five to six years.  SPRO says 3 years and $8,740,000.  The actual contract for those years is $10m.

Chris Sale signs 5 year $33.5m contract with White Sox, with 2 additional option years for $26m.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago pays market value for Sale.  We think they went one year too long, but the dollar figures are pretty good, in fact, maybe a little low for Sale.  SPRO says 4 years $23,356,000.  If the actual deal were for 4 years, it would grade out at $20,500,000, but they're guaranteeing a 5th year at $12m, so it's pretty close.

Aaron Crow signs 1 year $1.28m contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City overpays for Crow.  This is not really a fault of now, but of the contract Crow signed as an amateur and the no more than 20% cut rule.  SPRO $562,000.

Mike Trout signs 1 year $510,000 with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Trout. Now that's a no brainer statement, now, isn't it.  It was bound to be a bargain just on the face of things when you have a rookie with the, probably, second best rookie season ever behind Joe Jackson way back when.  But even considering the landscape of former high profile 2nd year players in the pre-arbitration system, this is a low ball offer.  SPRO $1,000,000 just to keep pace with players of the recent past and a goodwill gesture for future contracts.

Wade Miley signs 1 year contract for $500,500 with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona gets bargain in Miley.  SPRO $737,000.  Guess with the increase in the major league minimum the goodwill gesture for very good first year players is gone, too.  Still a bargain.

Luis Mendoza signs 1 year contract for $532,000 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City pays market value for Mendoza.  SPRO $545,000.

Louis Coleman signs 1 year contract for $511,000 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City pays market value for Coleman.  SPRO $534,000.

Guillermo Moscoso signs 1 year contract for $504,250 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City pays market value for Mendoza.  SPRO $535,000.

Francisley Bueno signs 1 year contract for $492,650 with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City pays market value for Bueno.  SPRO $495,000.

Avoiding Arbitration @ Zazzle

All nine players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.  If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first round.


There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.

More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012

Hot Stove - December 2012

Hot Stove - January 2013

Hot Stove - February 2013
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers Given to Nine Potential Free Agents

Nine players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd rounder to the signing team.
  • Michael Bourn, Atlanta
  • Josh Hamilton, Texas
  • Adam LaRoche, Washington
  • Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
  • Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
  • Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
  • Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
  • David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
  • B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

Shibe Park, Philadelphia,     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2012 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit
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