Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book 2011

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PEVA Shuffle 2011
Preseason Pitching Power Rankings

1.    Philadelphia Phillies
2.    San Francisco Giants
3.    St. Louis Cardinals*
4.    Los Angeles Dodgers
5.    Atlanta Braves
6.    Oakland A's
7.    New York Yankees
8.    Florida Marlins
9.    Boston Red Sox
10.    Texas Rangers
11.    San Diego Padres
12.    Colorado Rockies
13.    LA Angels of Anaheim
14.   Chicago Cubs
15.    Milwaukee Brewers
16.    Detroit Tigers
17.    Minnesota Twins
18.    New York Mets
19.    Chicago White Sox
20.    Seattle Mariners
21.    Tampa Bay Rays
22.    Houston Astros
23.    Cincinnati Reds
24.    Arizona Diamondbacks
25.    Washington Nationsls
26.    Baltimore Orioles
27.    Cleveland Indians
28.    Toronto Blue Jays
29.    Pittsburgh Pirates
30.    Cleveland Indians

* The injury to Adam Wainwright would drop St. Louis to #16.

Baseball Evaluation

Team Predictions 2011 - Standings

National League
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2011
American League Predictions 2011

National League
Wins Loss
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies 98 64
Atlanta Braves 88 74
Florida Marlins 78 84
Washington Nationals 76 86
New York Mets 76 86
National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals * 89 73
Milwaukee Brewers * 89 73
Cincinnati Reds 86 76
Chicago Cubs 77 85
Houston Astros 70 92
Pittsburgh Pirates 66 98
National League West
San Francisco Giants 92 70
Los Angeles Dodgers 88 74
Colorado Rockes 82 80
San Diego Padres 77 85
Arizona Diamondbacks 75 87
NL Central Winner - St. Louis Cardinals
Wild Card Winner - Milwaukee Brewers
Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2011 to wins and losses.  Shuffle Index has been adjusted to reflect injury to Adam Wainwright; see explanation below.

National League East
It's really a huge change since their World Series championship in 2008 for the Philadelphia Phillies.  This team is all about pitching with a big four in Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels in which every one of them could contend for the Cy Young Award.  There PEVA preseason shuffle total of 129.754 in huge.  How huge you might say?  Is it best ever huge?  Well,  not quite, but if they perform up to their pitching level of 2010, it would be the fifth highest total in the history of the game.  That's pretty big.  But there's been a decline, it seems, on the offensive side.  When you're missing Pat Burrell, (yes, we said Pat Burrell.  You did notice him winning another World Series in San Francisco last year) Jason Werth, and perhaps for some of the season, Chase Utley, it hurts.  Fortunately for Philly, they might only have to score 3 runs to win a lot of nights.  There are some who think this team could win 110 games.  It could, but only if the offense rebounds to the way it used to score runs.  Right now, the stats say 98 wins, but we wouldn't be surprised if there were more.  The Atlanta Braves are a good team and getting better all the time.  With the addition of Dan Uggla in the middle of their lineup, along with old stars like Chipper, and new ones like Jason, we predict a lot of wins for the Braves this year and contention for a Wild Card slot with the likes of St. Louis, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers. Down the Eastern Division line, the Nationals of Washington are going to be better than people think.  We wouldn't have signed Jason Werth to that contract, but if he can perform like he did in 2010 with Ryan Zimmerman becoming a force at 3B there and on a national stage, they might move up the standings some.  Might need that Strasberg fellow to do more than that though.  Florida is likely to edge them out for third spot, however.  They have their own youngsters on the rise there in Mike Stanton and better pitching.  And those Mets.  I guess if they get healthy players, they could get more wins, but there seems to be a culture there that would be better off changed.  We don't think that change is now.

National League Central
Yes, we've adjusted the PEVA shuffle index to reflect the loss of Adam Wainwright for the season to the St. Louis Cardinals.  We don't usually do this, but it seemed appropriate since his PEVA factor from 2010 was so high (he might have been the 2nd best pitcher in baseball last year) and we know he's out for the year.  And how much is this gonna cost the Cards?  We think in the range of 9 wins.  But guess what, this team is so good, they're still gonna win 89 times and edge out the Milwaukee Brewers in a one game playoff for the title.  Exciting, isn't it!  But don't fret, fans of Fielder, Braun, Wolf, and Greinke, you're still gonna make the playoffs.  But niether of these tasks is gonna be easy as the offensive juggernaut that is the Cincinnati Reds, is bound to win more than a few contests.  And if theuir pitching holds up, we wouldn't be surprised if the Reds took the top spot and knocked one of the other two from the playoff round.  For the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates, this might be a long year.  We do not like what the Cubs have been doing over the last decade in constructing a team and we haven't seen enough change yet to think they're bound to contend.  We think the Astros, or Phillies retread south, will be better than many think and could surprise for awhile.  We've always liked those past Phils like Happ and Bourn.  They're better than many think.  And oh, those Pirates.  Think Royals without as much coming from the farm.

National League West
Pitchiing, pitching, and more pitching keeps coming at you in that beautiful ballpark on the bay and we don't see it stopping any time soon.  A repeat in the NL West by the Giants, who added some nice pieces on the offensive side with the addition of Miguel Tejada, is in order, although we do see the LA Dodgers making them run for their money.  Colorado has been signing their young players to long term contracts and see this version of the Rockies as having tons of potential.  So do we.  Just don't think it will be this year.  For San Diego and Arizona.  Just too many losses in players and victories to add up to contending seasons.  They'll pitch well in Padre land and hit well in Diamondback territory, but their lack of punch on the other side of the ball will see that stacking up losses at a higher pace than their fans would like in 2011.

Player Predictions 2011
PEVA Power Ranking
Shuffle Index 2011
Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheets
Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Fantasy Baseball Three Year Rolling Average Rankings
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History

PEVA Shuffle 2011
Preseason Batting Power Rankings

1.    New York Yankees
2.    Cincinnati Reds
3.    St. Louis Cardinals
4.    Texas Rangers
5.    Milwaukee Brewers
6.    Detroit Tigers
7.    Boston Red Sox
8.    Chicago White Sox
9.    Minnesota Twins
10.   Atlanta Braves
11.    Baltimore Orioles
12.    Washington Nationals
13.    San Francisco Giants
14.    Los Angeles Dodgers
15.   Arizona Diamondbacks
16.    Tampa Bay Rays
17.    Philadelphia Phillies
18.    Oakland A's
19.    Colorado Rockies
20.    LA Angels of Anaheim
21.    Toronto Blue Jays
22.    New York Mets
23.    Cleveland Indians
24.    Chicago Cubs
25.    Pittsburgh Pirates
26.    San Diego Padres
27.    Houston Astros
28.    Seattle Mariners
29.    Kansas City Royas
30.    Florida Marlins
Baseball Evaluation, Babe Ruth
Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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PEVA Player Grade
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

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