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Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication Date: 11/10/2013

UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Kindle/Computer Edition

Great gift for the baseball
fan in your life.

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player



Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League 2013-2014

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of November 25

Phil Hughes signs 3 year $24m contract with Twins, including $1m per year in incentives.
SPRO Analysis -  
Minnesota overpays for Hughes.  Another trend, but this time for a young pitcher who's won over 15 games already in his career twice.  However, he's also a pitcher whose most recent season was 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA.  And that was good compared to two seasons before with a 5.79 ERA.  There seems to be a fine line now between Triple A pitcher and multi-million dollar contract.  Not for us.  SPRO 2 years $11,811,000.

Ricky Nolasco
signs 4 year $49m contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -  
Minnesota overpays for Nolasco.  Getting to be a theme here.  Nolasco is worth this contract if you're going to look at last season only, where his ERA was 3.70.  But, his ERA the previous years were 5.06, 4.57, 4.67, and 4.48.  Yes, he'll give you innings, but he usually gives up runs, unless last year was the beginning of a new trend. SPRO 3 years $28,530,000.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Ryan Vogelsong signs 1 year $5m contract, including $1.5m incentives with Giants.  Other reports state the guaranteed money is lower, near $3m.
SPRO Analysis -  
San Francisco gets bargain in Vogelsong.  Compared to how money is being thrown around, this is a well structured deal for the club.  Vogelsong was bad last year, but the two years prior he was above 10.000 PEVA.  So, if you're going to get credit for prior years, there are two very good ones nearby.  Lower guarantee smart move by the club.  SPRO value $7,083,000.  

Manny Parra signs 2 year $5.5m contract with Reds.
SPRO Analysis -  
Cincinnati overpays for Parra.  So, here's Parra's careers in a nutshell.  His ERA history is 3.76, 4.39, 6.36, 5.02, 5.06, 3.33.  Folks, baseball ERA's are not usually bell curves, so what we're likely seeing in 2013 was an outlier, where Parra will come back to the norm, probably during this two year contract.  SPRO $1,468,000 for one year.

Week of November 18
Free Agent Players
Brian McCann signs 5 year $85m contract with Yankees, including $15m vesting option for 6th year.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Yankees overpay for McCann.  We're likely going to be in the minority here, but this is a huge risk and overpay.  McCann has been a very good player, but he's a player showing significant signs of continual decline.  Five straight years of fewer AB's, a declining PEVA for three straight years; it's been since 2011 that he 's been above 10 PEVA.  Players usually don't improve when numbers like this show up.  Now the Yanks will do better with McCann at catcher than what they have and they have the money, but it's unlikely this proves a good contract in the long term.  SPRO 3 years $22,647,000.

Jhonny Peralta signs 4 year $53m contract with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis -  
St. Louis overpays for Peralta.  As some players have said, way to go baseball, reward the PED players with a contract beyond what they're worth.  Peralta is also on the decline, with PEVA ratings of 11.929, 8.114, and 7.231 over the last three years, and that includes his good play in the postseason.  SPRO of 3 years and $26,204,000.

Joe Smith signs 3 year $15.75m contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -  
Los Angeles of Anaheim pays market value for Smith. SPRO of 2 years and $10,063,000.

Dan Haren signs 1 year $10m contract with Dodgers, including vesting option for 2nd year.
SPRO Analysis -  
Los Angeles Dodgers pay market value for Haren.  SPRO of $9,327,000 for 2014 and SPRO would be okay with more years.  Vesting option smart route for Dodgers instead of guaranteed extra years..

Chris Young signs 1 year $7.25m contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Mets pay market value for Young.  SPRO of $7,491,000 and we'd have offered a second year, which Young likely would not have taken as he tries to reestablish better value.

Jason Vargas signs 4 year $32m contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -  
Kansas City pays market value for Vargas.  We wouldn't have given the 4th year, but SPRO pretty close to the money on 3 with $22,699,000.

Tim Hudson
signs 2 year $23m contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -  
San Francisco overpays for Hudson.  We didn't even realize that he's been on this big a slide, but for 3 years straight his PEVA is declining.  Now, it's for various reasons, but the reasons are still there. And the slides significant. SPRO 3 years $17,094,000.

Josh Johnson signs 1 year contract $8m contract with Padres, including $1.25m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -  
San Diego pays market value for Johnson.  SPRO $8,377,000.

Latroy Hawkins signs 1 year contract $2.5m contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -  
Colorado pays market value.  SPRO $3,340,000. Actually, this is a good bargain if he's gonna be their closer.

Skip Schumaker signs 1 year contract $2.5m contract with Reds.
SPRO Analysis -  
Cincinnati pay market value for Schumaker.  SPRO $2,413,000.

David Murphy signs 2 year contract $10-12m contract with Indians, including option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -  
Cleveland pays market value for Murphy.  SPRO  2 years $10,643,000.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Jose Molina signs 2 year $4.5m contract with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -  
Tampa Bay pays market value for Molina.  We'd rather not give the second year, but an SPRO of $2,240,000 is right on the money for a per year contract.

Colby Lewis signs Minor League deal, paying $2m with $4m incentives if he makes Texas club.
SPRO Analysis -  
Texas pays market value for Lewis.  SPRO says he's worth $3,210,000 in 2014 after not pitching due to injury the past season.

Javier Lopez signs 3 year $13m contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -  
San Francisco pays market value for Lopez.  Don't like the 3rd year, but the money's right.  SPRO value 2 years and $8,415,000.

Carlos Ruiz
signs 3 year contract for $26m contract with Phillies, including club option for 4th year.
SPRO Analysis -  
Philadelphia pays market value for Ruiz.  From an SPRO standpoint, you might even call this a bargain, but that's not discounting at all for the PED enhanced year of 2012.  SPRO says 3 years $31,332,000, giving him full credit for that year.  However, we're concerned that this is too high, and that he shouldn't be credited for that. Plus his AB's keep going down, albeit due to both the PED suspension and to injuries.  Now, he's going to be lot cheaper than McCann and they know him, but it's hard to think at the end of this contract, that the value will be there.

Arbitration Contracts
Phil Coke signs 1 year $1,900,000 non-guaranteed contract with Tigers, including $150,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis -  
Detroit overpays for Coke.  The non-guaranteed part of this deal really puts it in the range of market value, but ... the SPRO of $1,360,000 states we're a bit high if that's not the case.


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More Hot Stove League

Week of November 11
Free Agent Players
Nick Punto signs 1 year contract $3m contract with Oakland, including club option for 2nd year at $2.75m with potential player vesting option.
SPRO Analysis -  Oakland overpays for Punto.  SPRO $1,970,000. Good couple days for good, but not worth quite this much, former Phils.  Punto is a nice extra player, and used to be worth this contract.  But not now at 36 years of age and after a 2012 subpar season that should say you should be a bit wary.  But this type of contract happens early in the free agent season every year.

Marlon Byrd signs 2 year contract $16m contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -  Philadelphia overpays for Byrd.  Saying this is an overpay is a little unfair to the Phils.  SPRO thinks a two year contract for the outfielder is worth $13,753,000, but would have been okay with a third year at that per year value.  Most of all, though, we wonder why, due to age, he would be on their radar.  Yes, he had a very good year last year, worth $11-$12m per if he'd ever duplicated that before.  But will he do that again.  

Arbitration Contracts
Adam Rosales signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -  Texas pays market value for Rosales.  SPRO $739,000.

Jonny Venters signs 1 year $1,625,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -  Atlanta pays market value for Venters.  Venters did not pitch in 2013 and has now signed early, avoiding arbitration to a number right on the money.  SPRO $1,544,000.

Week of November 4

Free Agent Players
Brayan Pena signs 2 year contract with Reds.  1st year salary $1.25m, 2nd year not yet known.
SPRO Analysis -  Cincinnati pays market value for Pena.  SPRO $1,404,000.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Geovany Soto signs 1 year $3.05m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -  Texas pays market value for Soto.  Right on the money and probably worth a second year at that sum.  SPRO $3.158m.

Tim Lincecum signs 2 year $35m contract extension from 2014-2015.
SPRO Analysis -  San Francisco overpays for Tim Lincecum.  Yes, it's the overall opinion on general baseball circles that this contract is a reach.  Yes, there is some indication that 2013 was a better year for Lincecum than 2012 and that his deep stats say he was unlucky in his outcomes, but that ERA in a pitcher's park is concerning.  Now there's no doubt that he had been a special player and is still young, so reaching back to better days makes sense.  But not for this much.  SPRO says 3 years for a total of $28,357,000.

Early Bird Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Martin Perez signs 4 year $12.5m contract with three club options for 2018-2020 worth $22.5m with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -  Texas overpays for Perez.  It's not so much an overpay as a too early pay.  We knows it's good for the club to sign deals such as this, particularly with a player they think will mature well.  But, and it's a big but, Perez has barely scratched the surface of his career.  And although 2013 was good, with 10 wins and a 3.62 ERA in a pitcher's park, that was only over 124 IP.  Can he pitch 200 IP?  Will the league catch up to him? His underlying numbers show some concern with that.  He gave up more than a few HR, Hits, and his SO/W ratio needs some work.  Will he be worth it?  Probably.  Lots of potential for growth there, but, it's too early. At the end of next year, he'd still be pre-arbitration and both would have a better read on the situation.

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FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.


More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012

Hot Stove - December 2012

Hot Stove - January 2013

Hot Stove - February 2013

Hot Stove - March 2013
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).



 
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Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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