Baseball Hot Stove - November 2013

Week of November 11

Free Agent Players
Nick Punto signs 1 year contract $3m contract with Oakland, including club option for 2nd year at $2.75m with potential player vesting option.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Punto. SPRO $1,970,000. Good couple days for good, but not worth quite this much, former Phils. Punto is a nice extra player, and used to be worth this contract. But not now at 36 years of age and after a 2012 subpar season that should say you should be a bit wary. But this type of contract happens early in the free agent season every year.

Marlon Byrd signs 2 year contract $16m contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia overpays for Byrd. Saying this is an overpay is a little unfair to the Phils. SPRO thinks a two year contract for the outfielder is worth $13,753,000, but would have been okay with a third year at that per year value. Most of all, though, we wonder why, due to age, he would be on their radar. Yes, he had a very good year last year, worth $11-$12m per if he'd ever duplicated that before. But will he do that again.

Arbitration Contracts
Adam Rosales signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Rosales. SPRO $739,000.

Jonny Venters signs 1 year $1,625,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Venters. Venters did not pitch in 2013 and has now signed early, avoiding arbitration to a number right on the money. SPRO $1,544,000.

Week of November 4

Free Agent Players
Brayan Pena signs 2 year contract with Reds. 1st year salary $1.25m, 2nd year not yet known.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value for Pena. SPRO $1,404,000.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Geovany Soto signs 1 year $3.05m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Soto. Right on the money and probably worth a second year at that sum. SPRO $3.158m.

Tim Lincecum signs 2 year $35m contract extension from 2014-2015.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco overpays for Tim Lincecum. Yes, it's the overall opinion on general baseball circles that this contract is a reach. Yes, there is some indication that 2013 was a better year for Lincecum than 2012 and that his deep stats say he was unlucky in his outcomes, but that ERA in a pitcher's park is concerning. Now there's no doubt that he had been a special player and is still young, so reaching back to better days makes sense. But not for this much. SPRO says 3 years for a total of $28,357,000.

Early Bird Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Martin Perez signs 4 year $12.5m contract with three club options for 2018-2020 worth $22.5m with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas overpays for Perez. It's not so much an overpay as a too early pay. We knows it's good for the club to sign deals such as this, particularly with a player they think will mature well. But, and it's a big but, Perez has barely scratched the surface of his career. And although 2013 was good, with 10 wins and a 3.62 ERA in a pitcher's park, that was only over 124 IP. Can he pitch 200 IP? Will the league catch up to him? His underlying numbers show some concern with that. He gave up more than a few HR, Hits, and his SO/W ratio needs some work. Will he be worth it? Probably. Lots of potential for growth there, but, it's too early. At the end of next year, he'd still be pre-arbitration and both would have a better read on the situation.