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Baseball Evaluation
Player
Predictions 2011 - Cy Young Award Race
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Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2011
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2011
Our Predictions (As of 10-3-2011)
National League
WHO SHOULD WIN - Roy Halladay, PHI
WHO WILL WIN - Clayton Kershaw, LAN
American League
WHO SHOULD WIN - Justin Verlander, DET
WHO WILL WIN - Justin Verlander, DET
TOP 5 PEVA PERFORMERS IN 2011
1. Justin Verlander, DET 43.668
2. Roy Halladay, PHI 40.915
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAN 38.847
4. Cliff Lee, PHI 32.212
5. Jared Weaver, LAA 27.615
Top 40 Pitchers
Our Preseason Predictions
Cy Young Race
| Projections 2011 |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
PEVA Pro |
| National League |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Roy Halladay, PHI |
21 |
10 |
0 |
2.67 |
46.606 |
| 2. Adam Wainwright, SLN |
21 |
12 |
0 |
2.68 |
38.658 |
| 3. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL |
22 |
11 |
0 |
3.25 |
38.541 |
| 4. Tim Lincecum, SFN |
22 |
9 |
0 |
3.32 |
28.799 |
| 5. Cliff Lee, PHI |
15 |
8 |
0 |
3.01 |
28.675 |
| 6. Josh Johnson, FLO |
15 |
5 |
0 |
2.82 |
26.799 |
| 7. Matt Cain, SFN |
17 |
12 |
0 |
3.16 |
25.268 |
| 8. Chris Carpenter, SLN |
17 |
7 |
0 |
3.09 |
21.798 |
| 9. Cole Hamels, PHI |
16 |
12 |
0 |
3.40 |
20.252 |
| 10. Brian Wilson, SFN |
4 |
4 |
62 |
2.64 |
20.091 |
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|
|
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| American League |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA |
19 |
11 |
0 |
2.63 |
37.414 |
| 2. CC Sabathia, NYA |
20 |
6 |
0 |
2.88 |
27.274 |
| 3. Jon Lester, BOS |
24 |
9 |
0 |
3.27 |
26.628 |
| 4. Jered Weaver, LAA
|
17 |
11 |
0 |
3.48 |
24.765 |
| 5. Justin Verlander, DET
|
22 |
12 |
0 |
3.61 |
24.305 |
| 6. Trevor Cahill, OAK |
22 |
9 |
0 |
2.87 |
23.473 |
| 7. David Price, TBA |
21 |
6 |
0 |
3.05 |
21.548 |
| 8. Clay Buckholtz, BOS |
19 |
7 |
0 |
3.73 |
20.661 |
| 9. John Danks, CHA |
24 |
13 |
0 |
3.62 |
19.572 |
| 10. Danny Haren, LAA |
15 |
8 |
0 |
3.80 |
18.706 |
Note:
Peva Pro predictions for 2011 based on relationship of PEVA 2010,
3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.
Most Valuable Player Race - National League
Yes,
it's a bit early to take a gambit on predicting who the Cy Young award
winners will be for 2011. But we'll let you know who the PEVA
predictions system notes comes up big in the progression stats.
For last year, we thought Roy Halladay would come in 4th and
Felix Hernandez 3rd. Not too shabby, but wrong. Let's see
how wrong we'll be this season.
Repeat winners! Ten twenty game winners when last year there were
three! What's going on here and which one is more likely.
We're not sure just why the PEVA system is saying that twenty
game winners are more likely. Probably has something to do with
the emergence of pitching in baseball last year plus the fact that some
of these guys who were good last year are young and gonna get better.
But it's not too much of a stretch to think that the better odds
would be on seeing Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez repeat as winners
of their respective leagues.
For Halladay, competing in the rarifiied air of Cy Young contention is
an every year thing. It's kinda like Roy having a reservation for
one week in Cooperstown that summer five years after retirement.
It's expected. The more interesting race, however, might be
within the Phillies camp, where I personally think Cole Hamels may
emerge and give him a run for his money. Cole has not been the
luckiet Philly as far as run production behind him or good relief
pitching behind him, so that takes his progression numbers down a bit.
But I wouldn't be surprised if this year, he, Roy, and yes, Cliff
Lee, weren't looking to take a top ten spot in the Cy Young Award
voting after the year is done.
I firmly suspect that Ubaldo Jimenez willl keep a full tank of gas in
his pitching arm after hitting that midseason wall last year. Not
that you can expect the stellar first half to have two halfs quite that
good, but my feeling is this young man's gonna be in the mix for
All-Star and Cy Young consideration for a long time.
And if one of these years, the Florida Marlins keep just enough other
players in the tank and make one of their patented every five year
runs, then Josh Johnson will have more than 15 wins and vie for this
honor as well.
Most Valuable Player Race - American League
The
people populating this American League pitching list are so young, it's
hard to know just how good they'll become. But when you think of
it, at the beginning of the 2011 year, only two pitchers in that
predicted Top Ten are over 30, and one is actually 22. Plus the
winner last year is only 24. Felix Hernandez had one of those
great sabermetric seasons last year for those that don't like wins.
Now PEVA thought he should win the Cy Young Award in 2010 and
we're predicint another in 2011, but we do think he'll get more
victories.
There's a bunch of young guns in Oakland and if moneyball man can put
just enough offense around them, there might be a surprise in the
American League West coming out of the A's. Trevor Cahilll, at 22
years of age, might be the best of the lot, althought there's a good
deal of sentiment for Anderson or Gonzalez to emerge into high society
territory, too.
And in Chicago, John Danks is gonna win 24 games? I doubt that,
even though that's what the numbers say. But if there's a manager
who might just decide that leaving his pitcher in for that many wins
makes good sense for his team, then Ozzie might just be that guy.
And it's about time we give more love to pitchers who can go deep
into games anyway. Just how many 4.50 plus ERA middle relievers
do we really want to see blow a victory opportunity. Oh, remember
the days when you'd have enough room on your roster to have a pinch
running specialist. You know, I kinda liked that better than
having that 2nd lefty relief specialist who pitches 40 innings a year.
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