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Baseball Evaluation

Player Predictions 2011 - Cy Young Award Race
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2011
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2011

Our Predictions (As of 10-3-2011)

National League
WHO SHOULD WIN - Roy Halladay, PHI
WHO WILL WIN - Clayton Kershaw, LAN

American League
WHO SHOULD WIN - Justin Verlander, DET
WHO WILL WIN - Justin Verlander, DET

1. Justin Verlander, DET  43.668
2. Roy Halladay, PHI  40.915
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAN 38.847
4. Cliff Lee, PHI  32.212
5. Jared Weaver, LAA 27.615

Top 40 Pitchers

Our Preseason Predictions

Cy Young Race
Projections 2011 W L SV ERA PEVA Pro
National League
1. Roy Halladay, PHI 21 10 0 2.67 46.606
2. Adam Wainwright, SLN 21 12 0 2.68 38.658
3. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL 22 11 0 3.25 38.541
4. Tim Lincecum, SFN 22 9 0 3.32 28.799
5. Cliff Lee, PHI 15 8 0 3.01 28.675
6. Josh Johnson, FLO 15 5 0 2.82 26.799
7. Matt Cain, SFN 17 12 0 3.16 25.268
8. Chris Carpenter, SLN 17 7 0 3.09 21.798
9. Cole Hamels, PHI 16 12 0 3.40 20.252
10. Brian Wilson, SFN 4 4 62 2.64 20.091
American League
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 19 11 0 2.63 37.414
2. CC Sabathia, NYA 20 6 0 2.88 27.274
3. Jon Lester, BOS 24 9 0 3.27 26.628
4. Jered Weaver, LAA 17 11 0 3.48 24.765
5. Justin Verlander, DET 22 12 0 3.61 24.305
6. Trevor Cahill, OAK 22 9 0 2.87 23.473
7. David Price, TBA 21 6 0 3.05 21.548
8. Clay Buckholtz, BOS 19 7 0 3.73 20.661
9. John Danks, CHA 24 13 0 3.62 19.572
10.  Danny Haren, LAA 15 8 0 3.80 18.706
Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2011 based on relationship of PEVA 2010, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.  Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.

Most Valuable Player Race - National League

Yes, it's a bit early to take a gambit on predicting who the Cy Young award winners will be for 2011.  But we'll let you know who the PEVA predictions system notes comes up big in the progression stats.  For last year, we thought Roy Halladay would come in 4th and Felix Hernandez 3rd.  Not too shabby, but wrong.  Let's see how wrong we'll be this season.

Repeat winners!  Ten twenty game winners when last year there were three!  What's going on here and which one is more likely.  We're not sure just why the PEVA system is saying that twenty game winners are more likely.  Probably has something to do with the emergence of pitching in baseball last year plus the fact that some of these guys who were good last year are young and gonna get better.  But it's not too much of a stretch to think that the better odds would be on seeing Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez repeat as winners of their respective leagues.

For Halladay, competing in the rarifiied air of Cy Young contention is an every year thing.  It's kinda like Roy having a reservation for one week in Cooperstown that summer five years after retirement.  It's expected.  The more interesting race, however, might be within the Phillies camp, where I personally think Cole Hamels may emerge and give him a run for his money.  Cole has not been the luckiet Philly as far as run production behind him or good relief pitching behind him, so that takes his progression numbers down a bit.  But I wouldn't be surprised if this year, he, Roy, and yes, Cliff Lee, weren't looking to take a top ten spot in the Cy Young Award voting after the year is done.

I firmly suspect that Ubaldo Jimenez willl keep a full tank of gas in his pitching arm after hitting that midseason wall last year.  Not that you can expect the stellar first half to have two halfs quite that good, but my feeling is this young man's gonna be in the mix for All-Star and Cy Young consideration for a long time.

And if one of these years, the Florida Marlins keep just enough other players in the tank and make one of their patented every five year runs, then Josh Johnson will have more than 15 wins and vie for this honor as well.

Most Valuable Player Race - American League

The people populating this American League pitching list are so young, it's hard to know just how good they'll become.  But when you think of it, at the beginning of the 2011 year, only two pitchers in that predicted Top Ten are over 30, and one is actually 22.  Plus the winner last year is only 24.  Felix Hernandez had one of those great sabermetric seasons last year for those that don't like wins.  Now PEVA thought he should win the Cy Young Award in 2010 and we're predicint another in 2011, but we do think he'll get more victories.

There's a bunch of young guns in Oakland and if moneyball man can put just enough offense around them, there might be a surprise in the American League West coming out of the A's.  Trevor Cahilll, at 22 years of age, might be the best of the lot, althought there's a good deal of sentiment for Anderson or Gonzalez to emerge into high society territory, too.

And in Chicago, John Danks is gonna win 24 games?  I doubt that, even though that's what the numbers say.  But if there's a manager who might just decide that leaving his pitcher in for that many wins makes good sense for his team, then Ozzie might just be that guy.  And it's about time we give more love to pitchers who can go deep into games anyway.  Just how many 4.50 plus ERA middle relievers do we really want to see blow a victory opportunity.  Oh, remember the days when you'd have enough room on your roster to have a pinch running specialist.  You know, I kinda liked that better than having that 2nd lefty relief specialist who pitches 40 innings a year.

Baseball Evaluation, Babe Ruth

PEVA Player Ratings 2011
Top 40 Pitchers
Top 40 Batters
Team Index
Fielding Ratings 2011
Player Projections
Player Predictions Index 2011
MVP Predictions 2011
Cy Young Predictions 2011

Player Projections 2011 - A
Player Projections 2011 - B
Player Projections 2011 - C
Player Projections 2011 - DEF
Player Projections 2011 - G
Player Projections 2011 - H
Player Projections 2011 - IJK
Player Projections 2011 - L
Player Projections 2011 - M
Player Projections 2011 - NO
Player Projections 2011 -  PQ
Player Projections 2011 - R
Player Projections 2011 - S
Player Projections 2011 - TUV
Player Projections 2011 - WXYZ
Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheets
Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Fantasy Baseball RAVE Rankings
PEVA Player Grade
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History

Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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