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Baseball Evaluation
Player
Predictions 2011 - Most Valuable Player Race
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Stat
Geek Baseball Predictions 2011
Cy Young Award Predictions 2011
Our Predictions - As of 10-3-2011
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Who we think should win - Matt Kemp
Who we think will win - Ryan Braun
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Who we think should win - Miguel Cabrera
Who we think will win - Miguel Cabrera
TOP FIVE PEVA PERFORMERS IN 2011
1. Matt Kemp, LAN 36.370
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET 34.422
3. Jose Bautista, TOR 30.625
4. Ryan Braun, MIL 27.715
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS 27.547
Top 40 Batters
Our Preseason Predictions
MVP Race
| Projections 2011 |
HR |
RBI |
Ave. |
PEVA Pro |
| National League |
|
|
|
|
| 1. Joey Votto, CIN |
43 |
132 |
.316 |
40.510 |
| 2. Albert Pujols, SLN |
41 |
120 |
.324 |
37.661 |
| 3. Ryan Braun, MIL |
34 |
127 |
.303 |
28.117 |
| 4. Prince Fielder, MIL |
39 |
113 |
.276 |
25.014 |
| 5. Jayson Werth, WAS |
30 |
90 |
.302 |
24.401 |
| 6. Matt Holiday, SLN |
26 |
98 |
.319 |
23.764 |
| 7. Carlos Gonzalez, COL |
37 |
136 |
.323 |
21.771 |
| 8. Andre Ethier, LAN |
29 |
103 |
.310 |
20.248 |
| 9. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS |
29 |
99 |
.309 |
19.595 |
| 10. David Wright, NYN |
30 |
105 |
.300 |
19.261 |
|
|
|
|
|
| American League |
|
|
|
|
| 1. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS |
40 |
120 |
.316 |
33.963 |
| 2. Miguel Cabrera, DET |
38 |
129 |
.320 |
32.969 |
| 3. Evan Longoria, TBA |
30 |
130 |
.284 |
31.563 |
| 4. Jose Bautista, TOR
|
52 |
121 |
.254 |
29.963 |
| 5. Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
|
27 |
108 |
.319 |
28.858 |
| 6. Josh Hamilton, TEX |
33 |
105 |
.359 |
28.095 |
| 7. Robinson Cano, NYA |
33 |
120 |
.339 |
26.869 |
| 8. Joe Mauer, MIN |
16 |
90 |
.337 |
26.635 |
| 9. Mark Teixeira, NYA |
35 |
116 |
.286 |
24.346 |
| 10. Carl Crawford, BOS |
18 |
88 |
.307 |
18.958 |
Note:
Peva Pro predictions for 2011 based on relationship of PEVA 2010,
3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.
Most Valuable Player Race - National League
Take
this for whatever it's worth, because last year the two
actual winners, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton, weren't in our Top Ten.
We had done pretty well the year before, with 1 of 2, and the
other in
2nd place. Oh, well, inaxact science, we know, but it won't stop
us from sticking our neck out again, now will it. So for whatever
it's worth, here goes, and at the end of the year, we'll see just how
well we did again.
Yes,
it's mathematic progression, so it's not too hard to see just why the
Top Two are where they are in the National League. But it's a
flip for us. Last year, after the season was done, we were an
Albert for MVP guy, and had Votto in second place. I'd like to
say we've seen the error of our ways, but that's giving credit to the
progression formulas and has nothing to do with us.
So, yes, it's Votto/Pujols in 2011. But what I think it
interesting is th name midway down the Top Ten pack. I'm not sure
many people think Jasyon Werth is going to go to Washington and have an
MVP caliber year. But if you look at the way Jayson is
progressing, you can see that he may just contend for it. I know,
Nationals Park is not Citizens Bank Park, and the players around him,
although Ryan Zimmerman is one really good one and a possible MVP
candidate himself with the team's gotta be better caveat, are not the
caliber of the Phillies lineup, but, what's that saying about nuts.
Now we would have let Werth walk from Philadelphia, too, because
of payroll considerations and think his contract is too long, but for
2011, we think, and the numbers point it out, that Werth might be
pretty darn good.
Two quick exit points about the National League side of the equation.
One of these years, a Brewer is gonna win one of these, even
though the fact that Braun and Fielder split some midwest votes is an
impediment. Plus, Andre Ethier is slowly sneaking up on the type
of seasons that get MVP mentions. But for some reason, us folks
on the East Coast don't notice it that much. Guess he needs a
playoff run to cement those thoughts.
Most Valuable Player Race - American League
If
you thought Adrian Gonzazlez put up good numbers in that Grand Canyon
park they call Petco in San Diego, just wait until you see all those
balls going off and over the Green Monster in Boston. So it comes
as no surprise to us that Mr. Gonzalez is the mathmatic PEVA favorite
to make an MVP name for himself in Beantown and the American League in
2011. But it wouldn't be too surprising to anyone that Miguel
Cabrera had another fine season, one, which, if his team were better
even last year, he might have already won one of these.
Put up another numbers crunching season like last year and have the Tigers win a few more games, and he might just nab one now.
It's gonna be hard for Evan Longoria to put up the numbers we're
projecting, because the mates around him are not as good as they once
were, but there's still enough down in Tampa land to suggest, think
Zobrist and Upton, that RBI opportunities will be there. What's
unlikely, however, is that the team itself will be in playoff
contention and suggest to voters that Longoria is the man. Now
for the man one slot below him, Jose Bautista, who had a career year
that so far outpaced his norm, it kept raising inevitable questions.
But if he does it again, ... whoa, baby, then we might really
have something.
If the Yankees get back in contention and win tons of games this year,
it's likely gonna be because the offense helped a whole lot during
those games when starters 3 to 5 were on the mound. And if that's
the case, then you're probably gonna be looking toward the younger
players on the roster (sorry Mr. Jeter and Mr. Rodriguez) to lead the
way. Robinson Cano showed last year that he was ready to take
that mantel; we're predicting another great year from the Great Cano,
at 33, 120, 0.339. Not far behnd him is his mate on the right
side of the infield. Mark Teixeira is putting up a better career
than most observers credit him for. They think he's good, maybe
not great. Add 35, 116, 0.286 to his tally, and you might be
edging closer to Cooperstown numbers at the midway point of his career.
Not quite, but close. And throw in that stellar defense
into the equation and you've got a perennial name on the MVP possible
list.
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