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Stat Geek Baseball 2010

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.

PEVA Player

 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

Type A Free Agents
(Requiring Compensation of 1st or 2nd Round Draft Pick from signing club (if former club offered arbitration).  Former club also receives sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd Round if they lose the Type A Free Agent player.

Jason Bay, Rafael Betancount, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Darren Oliver, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Randy Wolf

Stat Geek Baseball

Free Agent 2009-10 Contract Analysis

Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2010 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal.  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salayr projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball's Free Agent Salary Projection 2010 Newsletter, and the upcoming Stat Geek Baseball 2010 Current and History data sets, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2009 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2010 Contracts  2010 Free Agents
Free Agent Headline
Chan Ho Park signs $1,200,000 contract with New York Yankees, including $300,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees pay market value for Park.  SPRO projection for 2010, including both salary and bonus payments is $1,545,000.

Free Agent Headline
Jonny Gomes signs $800,000 contract with Cincinnati with $500,000 in performance bonuses based on at bats and team option for $1.75 million in 2011.  Contract also includes minor league option of $100,000.

SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value for Gomes.  SPRO projection $1,394,000.

Free Agent Headline
Felipe Lopez signs $1,000,000 contract with St. Louis Cardinals, including $200,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals get bargain in Lopez.  We're not great Lopez fans, but he's a real steal at these dollar amounts.  Lopez has been good the last couple years, batting over 0.300 since mid 2008.  SPRO projections, just looking at the stats is over $5 million.
Free Agent Headline
Johnny Damon signs $8,000,000 contract with Detroit Tigers.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers get bargain in Damon.  He probably waited too long in this economic climate with demands too high considering the times, but in either case, this contract is a good one for Detroit.  SPRO projection $9.927,000 in 2010 and Damon deserved a three year deal.
Free Agent Headline
Mark Hendrickson resigns with Baltimore for $1,400,000 with club option for $1,200,000 in 2011 plus $100,000 in preformance bonuses annually.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles pay market value for Hendrickson.  SPRO projection $1,577,000.

Free Agent Headline
Will Ohman signs $1,350,000 minor league contract with Baltimore that would be guaranteed if added to the 40 man roster.  Includes $150,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles pay market value for Ohman.  SPRO for 2010 $1,059,000.
Free Agent Headline
Russell Branyan signs $2,000,000 contract with Cleveland, including additional $1,000,000 in incentives and $5 million mutual option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Indians get bargain in Branyan.  It's a bargain considering the incentives portion of the contract although SPRO pegs the salary at $3,421,000 considering both salary and incentives, which would be right in line with the numbers. Branyan had a fine year for Seattle in 2009, but is paying the price for a history of injuries in prior years.

Free Agent Headline
Jose Molina signs $400,000 contract with $400,000 additional if added to the Toronto 40 man roster.  There is a club option for 2011 at $1.2 million.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays pay market value for Molina.  SPRO projection $850,000.

Free Agent Headline
Scott Schoenweiss signs $800,000 minor league contract with Milwaukee, that's guaranteed if added to the 40 man roster.  There are $700,000 incentives in the contract.

SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Schoenweiss.  SPRO projection $850,000.

Free Agent Headline
Jamey Wright signs $900,000 minor league contract with Cleveland, including $700,000 additional in incentives.  Contract guaranteed if added to the 40 man roster.

SPRO Analysis
Indians pay market value for Wright.  SPRO projection $1,255,000.

Free Agent Headline
Endy Chavez signs with Texas for a $1,000,000 minor league contract with $1,250,000 club option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Chavez.  SPRO projection $902,000.

Free Agent Headline
Mike MacDougal signs $700,000 contract that's guaranteed if he makes the Marlin's team.  There is $75,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Marlins get bargain in MacDougal.  Yes, it's slight, but MacDougal's past with a closer pedigree is a nice addition to Florida's relief staff, although his walk penchant adds a bit of a question.  SPRO projection $1,148,000.

Free Agent Headline
Marcus Thames signs $900,000 minor league contract with New York Yankees that would be guaranteed if added to the 40 man roster.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees pay market value for Thames.  SPRO slightly higher at $1,225,000 based on his potential for higher use in the past.  Good sign for the Yanks as they fill out their roster.
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History
Arbitration Eligible
Just in Case You
Think the SPRO Salary Projection and Stat Geek Baseball 2010
Can Only Do Free Agent Projections, Take a Look at How Well It Handles
Pre-Free Agent/Arbitration
Eligible Players

Huston Street signs $23,000,000 3 year deal with Rockies.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $23,236,000 3 year deal.

Josh Johnson signs $39,000,000 4 year deal with Marlins.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $36,020,000 4 year deal.

Mark Teahen
signs $14,000,000 3 year deal with White Sox.  Stat Geek
Baseball's SPRO Projection, $14,894,000 3 year deal.

Actual Contract
2010 - $3,750,000
2011 - $4,750,000
2012 - $5,500,000

SPRO Projection

2010 - $4,100,000
2011 - $5,304,000
2012 - $5,490,000

Try Us Out
Stat Geek Baseball 2010
Arbitration Players

2010 Filings/Figures Exchanged

Free Agent Headline
Orlando Hudson signs $5,000,000 contract with Minnesota Twins.

SPRO Analysis
Twins get bargain in Hudson.  It's a continual bargain bin sale for Major League teams as they head toward spring training and snap up the remaining free agents and the Twins got a good one in signing Hudson.  Boy, what a new baseball park won't do for your revenues.  Just ask those Twins fans at Target Field and their $95 million dollar roster.  SPRO projection $6,040,000 in 2010 and Hudson deserved a three year contract.

Free Agent Headline
Kevin Gregg signs $2,750,000 contract with Toronto.  Deal includes $4.5 million option for 2011 or $8.75 million two year option.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays pay market value for Gregg.  It's a bargain for one year and market value including the option, but we'll say overall it's a good market value deal.  SPRO projection $3,538,000 in 2010 and a two year contract worth $7,200,000.

Free Agent Headline
Adam Kennedy signs $1,250,000 contract with Washington, including $2,000,000 option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals get bargain in Kennedy.  Overpay early, get bargains late. The Nationals take part in the sale, getting Kennedy, potentially a plus starter, for a backup player price.  He's 34 years old, but coming off one of his best years at Oakland.  If he performs like that in Washington, this is a great deal.  SPRO projection $3,032,000 for one year and $6,170,000 for two.

Free Agent Headline
Yorvit Torrealba signs $1,250,000 contract with San Diego, including $3,500,000 option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Padres get bargain in Torrealba.  It's slight, but still good.  Now pegged as a backup, Yorvit's SPRO was $1,707,000 for 2010.

Free Agent Headline

Ryan Garko signs $550,000 contract with performance incentives of $525,000 with Seattle Mariners.

SPRO Analysis
Mariners get bargain in Garko.  Garko had an off year in 2009, but is still only 29 years old and bound to rebound. SPRO projection $1,739,000.

Free Agent Headline
Gabe Gross signs $750,000 contract with Oakland that includes $250,000 in performance incentives.

SPRO Analysis
A's get bargain in Gross.  Yes, it's bargain basement time on the free agent market as clubs troll the bottom to middle of the field were plus backups or surprising rebounders.  Gross is likely in the backup class, but worth $1,317,000 in the SPRO projection model.

Free Agent Headline
Melvin Mora signs $1,300,000 contract with Colorado.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies get bargain in Mora.  Okay, he's old, 38 years old, but two seasons ago in 2008 he was batting 0.285 with 25 HR and 83 RBI.  Now that's a good bargain, even if he can't get back to that plateau.  But in Colorado, even in these humidor days, it's possible.  SPRO Projection $4,055,000.

Free Agent Headline
Orlando Cabrera signs $3,020,000 contract with Cincinnati Reds, including a mutual option for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
Reds get bargain in Cabrera.  Geez, what kind of love does it take for a player with four straight years above 10.000 PEVA Rating to get a solid contract.  There seems to be a trend here for players who are older, but still high in production that's a whole lot different than last year with a player like Raul Ibanez.  SPRO projection for Cabrera was north of $8 million.

More Free Agent 2010 Contract Analysis

November Signings
December Signings
January Signings

Shibe Park, Philadelphia,     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: 2009 statistics through October 6, 2009.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2009 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit
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