Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication Date: 11/10/2013

UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Paperback
Details

Kindle/Computer Edition

Great gift for the baseball
fan in your life.

 
Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player




Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League Analysis


Qualifying Offers 2013-2014

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League

Qualifying Offers
Who Should Accept, What They Should Get,
Will They Get More or Less

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).  All Free Agents offered the Qualifying Offer have rejected the offers and are free to negotiate with all teams, including their own.

Cheap baseball tickets

Week of November 4, 2013

Free Agent Players Given Qualifying Offers ($14.1m)

Carlos Beltran

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $15,539,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $48,268,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Beltran is one of the few free agents on this year's market who might not get what SPRO suggests, but he should, even though he's one of the older free agents.  You actually get numbers out of Beltran, and postseason numbers, too.  Great sign for a contending team.  But we think he won't get that amount of $, he might get the years.

Robinson Cano

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $18,855,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 6 years - $121,981,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Cano's not going to accept that offer or the one SPRO suggests.  There's a good chance he breaks the bank back with New York, although it's doubtful he gets the 10 year $300m contract he wants from them or anyone.  We're thinking he gets in the 8 year $200m range, but won't be worth it.

Shin-Shoo Choo

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $15,727,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 5 years - $83,766,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Choo seems to be a coveted man by many teams and with the Hunter Pence signing seemingly the guide for this type of player, Choo is bound to get number more in that territory, five years, $90m, than where SPRO is at.  In fact, he's likely to get north of $100m.  But we wouldn't want to give that to him, even though we like the OBP he presents, a rarity in the modern player.

Nelson Cruz

Should He Accept: YES
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $8,311,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $25,816,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Cruz is coming off a PED suspension and, to us, not as good as some think.  In fact, we're surprised Texas would want to pay him $14.1m for one year.  We think Cruz may be a player augmented by the Texas ballpark, and perhaps more.  But do we think somebody's going to give Cruz a contract above SPRO.  Yes.  Think 3 year $36m or so.  And they might be in for a disappointment.

Stephen Drew

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $4,805,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 2 years - $9,778,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Drew has never had one year where he was worth $14.1m.  Now we know he helped Boston win a World Series, as did Napoli, and Ellsbury.  But we wouldn't want to give out a contract above the qualifying offer to any of them.  We don't think Drew is going to get an average annual value of the QO, but somebody, probably Boston will give him a contract in the Jimmy Rollins range, 3-4 years at $11m or so.  But he's not Jimmy Rollins to us.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $11,855,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 4 years - $49,814,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Ellsbury is the one player in this group who has actually had an outstanding year.  But it was awhle ago and he's been beset by injuries often since.  He's going to get more than SPRO, too.  Probably four years and $60m or so.

Curtis Granderson

Should He Accept: YES
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $13,343,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 4 years - $56,066,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
The injury plagued season of 2013 has cost Granderson alot of cash.  If he rebounds in 2014, which is likely, he's probably going to recoup some of that.  It would be a risk to accept, but might be a good idea.  We think a bit higher than SPRO is the max offer he gets this year.

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FREE AGENT CHANGES

As of 2012, there were no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.


More Hot Stove Items

Current Hot Stove
Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Hot Stove - January 2013
Hot Stove - February 2013
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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