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Stat
Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication
Date: 11/10/2013
UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON
The
Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!
Paperback
Details
Kindle/Computer
Edition
Great
gift for the baseball
fan in your life.
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
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Stat Geek Baseball
Hot
Stove League Analysis
Qualifying Offers 2013-2014
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It's
that time of year. The season and World Series are done and
your
teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the
playoffs next year. And there are questions aplenty.
What
free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that
could
garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave? Who is
arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that
player or cut him free? What are your favorite players worth
anyway?
Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek
Baseball
will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as
well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's
opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed
player. Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out
well.
Happy stoving!
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The Hot Stove League
Qualifying Offers
Who Should Accept, What They Should Get,
Will They Get More or Less
Find
out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid,
what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary
Projection system, and more.
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Qualifying
Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free
agents. If rejected and signed by another team, their former
teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the
signing team losing either a first or second round pick. This
year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN),
Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA),
Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby
Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann
(ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE). All Free
Agents offered the Qualifying Offer have rejected the offers
and are free to negotiate with all teams, including their own.
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Week of November 4,
2013
Free Agent Players Given
Qualifying Offers ($14.1m)
Carlos Beltran
Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $15,539,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $48,268,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Beltran
is one of the few free agents on this year's market who might not get
what SPRO suggests, but he should, even though he's one of the older
free agents. You actually get numbers out of Beltran, and
postseason numbers, too. Great sign for a contending team.
But we think he won't get that amount of $, he might get the
years.
Robinson Cano
Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $18,855,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 6 years - $121,981,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Cano's not
going to accept that offer or the one SPRO suggests. There's
a good chance he breaks the bank back with New York, although it's
doubtful he gets the 10 year $300m contract he wants from them or
anyone. We're thinking he gets in the 8 year $200m range, but
won't be worth it.
Shin-Shoo Choo
Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $15,727,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 5 years - $83,766,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Choo seems
to be a coveted man by many teams and with the Hunter Pence signing
seemingly the guide for this type of player, Choo is bound to get
number more in that territory, five years, $90m, than where SPRO is at.
In fact, he's likely to get north of $100m. But we
wouldn't want to give that to him, even though we like the OBP he
presents, a rarity in the modern player.
Nelson Cruz
Should He Accept: YES
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $8,311,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $25,816,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Cruz is
coming off a PED suspension and, to us, not as good as some think.
In fact, we're surprised Texas would want to pay him $14.1m
for one year. We think Cruz may be a player augmented by the
Texas ballpark, and perhaps more. But do we think somebody's
going to give Cruz a contract above SPRO. Yes.
Think 3 year $36m or so. And they might be in for a
disappointment.
Stephen Drew
Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $4,805,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 2 years - $9,778,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Drew has
never had one year where he was worth $14.1m. Now we know he
helped Boston win a World Series, as did Napoli, and Ellsbury.
But we wouldn't want to give out a contract above the
qualifying offer to any of them. We don't think Drew is going
to get an average annual value of the QO, but somebody, probably Boston
will give him a contract in the Jimmy Rollins range, 3-4 years at $11m
or so. But he's not Jimmy Rollins to us.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $11,855,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 4 years - $49,814,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - Ellsbury is
the one player in this group who has actually had an outstanding year.
But it was awhle ago and he's been beset by injuries often
since. He's going to get more than SPRO, too.
Probably four years and $60m or so.
Curtis Granderson
Should He Accept: YES
Has He Accepted: NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $13,343,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 4 years - $56,066,000.
SPRO Pre Contract Analysis - The
injury plagued season of 2013 has cost Granderson alot of cash.
If he rebounds in 2014, which is likely, he's probably going to
recoup some of that. It would be a risk to accept, but might be a
good idea. We think a bit higher than SPRO is the max offer he
gets this year.
Page 2
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FREE
AGENT CHANGES
As of 2012,
there
were no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up
what when signed a free agent. Only those that have been
offered
the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not. For those players
signed
by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their
second round pick. The former club gets a
compensatory pick
afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
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| Red
Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: PEVA
- Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2012 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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