Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication Date: 11/10/2013

UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

Paperback
Details

Kindle/Computer Edition

Great gift for the baseball
fan in your life.

 
Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player




Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League Analysis


Qualifying Offers 2013-2014

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League

Qualifying Offers
Who Should Accept, What They Should Get,
Will They Get More or Less

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).  All Free Agents offered the Qualifying Offer have rejected the offers and are free to negotiate with all teams, including their own.

Cheap baseball tickets

Week of November 4, 2013

Free Agent Players Given Qualifying Offers ($14.1m) - Page 1

Ubaldo Jimenez

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $13,740,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $42,680,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
After his rebound year in 2013, Jimenez should strike now in free agency.  Much of his value still reaches back to his great season several years back; another  year or two forward without reaching that status would hurt him.  SPRO is probably about right for his offers, but he could get an extra year.

Hiroki Kuroda

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $14,797,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $45,963,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Kuroda waned a bit coming down the stretch, but had a good season overall.  Somebody will give him a multi-year deal, even though he's the oldest of the pitchers.

Brian McCann

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $7,791,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $22,647,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
When we say he shouldn't accept it, it's not because we think McCann is worth north of that number.  He's had two down years in a row, but will still command significant offers on the free agent market as the best catcher available.  Probably 4 years $50m. Not worth that much to us, without him proving that those two years were not a trend.

Kendrys Morales

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $7,539,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $23,418,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Morales is not worth the QO, but he's going to get a deal higher than SPRO.  Probably in the range of 3 years and $36-42m.  We're not convinced that Morales should command that much, but he probably will.

Mike Napoli

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $9,571,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 3 years - $29,730,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
Napoli had a significant deal pulled out, because of those injury concerns last year.  We think Boston offers one at about the same value, 3 years $39m.

Ervin Santana

Should He Accept: NO
Has He Accepted: 
NO
SPRO One Year Projection: $10,049,000
SPRO Contract Offer: 4 years - $42,646,000.

SPRO Pre Contract Analysis -
While we think the SPRO numbers are fair for Santana's services, he's going to get between $12m to $15m per year on the open market.  It's said he wants a 5 year contract worth $100 million.  We'd let someone else pay that.

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FREE AGENT CHANGES

As of 2012, there were no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.


More Hot Stove Items

Current Hot Stove
Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Hot Stove - January 2013
Hot Stove - February 2013
Hot Stove - March 2013
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit baseballevalution.com.
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