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Baseball Evaluation
Player
Predictions 2009 - Cy Young Race
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Stat
Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2009
Cy Young Race
| Projections 2009 |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
PEVA Pro |
| National League |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Tim Licecum, SFN |
19 |
5 |
0 |
2.64 |
37.534 |
| 2. Brandon Webb, ARI |
25 |
8 |
0 |
3.59 |
37.491 |
| 3. Danny Haren, ARI |
19 |
9 |
0 |
3.35 |
34.947 |
| 4. Cole Hamels, PHI |
18 |
8 |
0 |
3.30 |
31.287 |
| 5. Johan Santana, NYM |
16 |
9 |
0 |
2.87 |
28.817 |
| 6. Derek Lowe, ATL |
17 |
11 |
0 |
3.48 |
25.869 |
| 7. Ryan Dempster, CHN |
16 |
7 |
13 |
3.85 |
24.699 |
| 8. Ricky Nolasco, FLA |
17 |
7 |
0 |
4.54 |
21.245 |
| 9. Chad Billingsley, LAN |
19 |
9 |
0 |
3.33 |
19.849 |
| 10. Roy Oswalt, HOU |
17 |
9 |
0 |
3.49 |
19.813 |
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| American League |
|
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| 1. Roy Halladay, TOR |
18 |
11 |
0 |
3.13 |
45.650 |
| 2. C.C. Sabathia, NYA |
19 |
9 |
0 |
3.48 |
44.627 |
| 3. Cliff Lee, CLE |
20 |
6 |
0 |
3.94 |
40.773 |
| 4. Ervin Santana, LAA |
19 |
9 |
0 |
4.25 |
26.182 |
| 5. James Shields, TBA |
19 |
8 |
0 |
3.76 |
24.057 |
| 6. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS |
7 |
3 |
52 |
2.18 |
23.355 |
| 7. Jon Lester, BOS |
17 |
6 |
0 |
3.94 |
21.199 |
| 8. Joe Saunders, LAA |
20 |
7 |
0 |
3.84 |
19.579 |
| 9. Daisuke Matsusaka, BOS |
21 |
5 |
0 |
2.77 |
18.646 |
| 10. Josh Beckett, BOS |
18 |
9 |
0 |
3.86 |
18.000 |
Note:
Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008,
3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Cy Young Award Race - National League
Will there be a repeat performer from the west coast bay with the
powerful arm and new teammate with Cy Young pedigree? What about
a second banana in the desert overcoming his better known colleague for
the top prize? Or could it be a player with a model wife and
Dancing With the Stars affinity, plus last year's playoff awards, to
take the step forward and claim the pitching prize in the National
League in 2009. The numbers point toward a close race, and a very
slight nod, to repeats, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if a Haren or
a Hamels jumps past them.
1.
Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN - Almost every scout in baseball expected
Lincecum to be a great pitcher, but the surprise was, he became that
man in 2008. But there's no reason to expect him to stop now.
With 265 strikeouts and a 2.62 ERA, even if it's in a pitcher's
park, the power hurler from San Francisco now even has a Cy Young
mentor in Randy Johnson, but of course, has already proven he does not
need it. If Tim puts a second year together that mirrors in any
way last year's performance, whoa. And don't be surprised if he
does.
2. Brandon Webb, SP,
ARI -
Somebody wake up the neighbors in the desert and tell them the natives
are restless. Oh, not due to a concern about illegal immigration
or Mexican sovereignty, but because we still don't think Mr. Webb gets
enough credit for his career. No, he's not gonna strikeout out
265 batters, but will give you 175-200 K, 200 IP, 30-35 Starts, and a
whole lot of wins. With PEVA Player Ratings of 13.770, 11.349,
14.087, 36.142, 35.177, 31.968 since 2003, what more needs to be said.
3.
Danny Haren, SP, ARI - Second banana. Great pitcher. Last
year Haren emerged from the shadows, but perhaps only slightly from a
national perspective. But even with a pitcher on his own staff
playing the shadow game, Haren put up numbers with Webb prowess.
Four straight years of over 200 IP point to his durability, and
the quality of his pitching now speaks volumes for themselves.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, you'd have to have been
sleeping through last year's playoffs to miss the work Cole Hamels did
for the Phillies, and this is far from an unknown, typical sleeper
pick. We just like him. And think that he has an uncanny
ability to pitch well in big games, overcome a hitter's ballpark, and
win. Remember, last year his 14 wins were well below what they
should have been. The stellar bullpen hiccuped behind Hamels more
than anyone else. If he'd have won 20, we would have been talking
about Hamels for Cy Young in 2008. We think we will be talking
about him this year.
Cy Young Award Race - American League
With Sabathia back in the American League, the race for the Cy Young
looks like a real doozy. From Roy north of the border to a
Shields in Florida, the arms of the American League will really be
throwing a six month race for the best pitcher in the junior circuit.
And lest we think that beantown will not be represented in the
race, we think that any of four Red Sox hurlers could win the whole
thing. And wouldn't you know it, we left last year's winner for
last, just like most people are doing. But you know, somehow we
don't think Cliff Lee was a fluke. But we still don't think he'll
win. We think Mr. Halladay will reclaim the crown.
1.
Roy Halladay, SP, TOR - 20-11, 2.46 ERA, 246.3 IP and he was
overshadowed by Mr. Lee last year and rightfully finished second in the
Cy Young race last year. But we expect that outcome could be
reversed in 2009, at least at the top. Still in his prime at 32
years of age in 2009, there's no reason to think Halladay can't
approach last year's numbers that added up to one of the best year's
for pitching in baseball history, yet not good enough for Cy.
2. C.C Sabathia, SP,
NYA -
Well, his team should win a lot of games and it's doubtful he'll be
traded in mid-season like last year, which surely hurt his chances in
either Cy Young race. And while we think that any pitcher who is
given a contract in that stratosphere shows a good measure of club
insanity, the last two seasons of Sabathia starts have been
spectacular. No, he did not win 20 games either year, but this isn't
1970 anymore. We fully expect C.C. to help the Bombers in their quest
to unseat Boston and Tampa Bay in the division.
3.
Cliff Lee, SP, ARI - Was there a more unsung, and in many ways,
disrespected pitching season his baseball history? Most people
think it was a fluke. Maybe so. But if that's the case.
What a fluke! 22-3 and a PEVA Player Rating that ranked the
21st best pitching season in history. Not since Mort Cooper in
1942 did a pitcher pop up with a season that good after a non-stellar
former career, and it likely took war year diminution of talent to
produce that. Now Lee had good years before, with double digit
wins, yet nothing to suggest his year in 2008. But until we're
told by his stats that this was a fluke, we're just gonna believe that
the light came on late, but that it still came on, and he'll be a
factor in 2009.
Best
of the Rest - Sleeper. Let's come right out and say it. The
numbers suggest that Jonathan Papelbon could go forward this year and
have one of the best seasons for a relief pitcher ever. We'll
believe it when we see it, but if that's true, it would give us one
hell of a sleeper in the Cy Young race to talk about.
He's been adding up his total in saves for the last three years;
35, 37, and 41, respectively, and if the Red Sox win as many games as
we think they could, that number could grow substantially, perhaps into
KRod territory, with a lot better supporting numbers beneath them.
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