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Baseball Evaluation, Babe Ruth

Baseball Evaluation

Team Predictions 2009 - Standings
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
National League Predictions 2009

American League
Wins Loss
American League East
New York Yankees 98 64
Boston Red Sox 97 65
Tampa Bay Rays 89 73
Toronto Blue Jays 86 76
Baltimore Orioles 74 88
American League Central
Cleveland Indians 89 73
Minnesota Twins 82 80
Chicago White Sox 80 82
Kansas City Royals 79 83
Detroit Tigers 73 89
American League West
Los Angeles Angels 83 79
Oakland A's 77 85
Texas Rangers 70 92
Seattle Mariners 69 93
Wild Card Winner - Boston Red Sox
Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2009 to wins and losses.

American League East
Yes, the power is in the east in the American League as well, but in this division, there could be four teams winning more than half of their games. Although the additions of the Yankees (think Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett, just to start) vault them to the top, the injury status of Alex Rodriguez throws the margins into a blender.  With a #2 Power Ranking in the PEVA Shuffle Index in both pitching and batting, it's hard not to see the Bronx Bombers back in the playoff mix, but we're no longer too certain if they'll finish on top.  They are there for now, based on Shuffle numbers, but it's going to be close.  The Boston Red Sox have been reloading in a more subtle way.  With five pitchers above 10.000 PEVA Player Rating in 2008, they've added a few cagey vets in Smoltz and Penny, who if healthy, could be a nice addition, but it's the small moves for players like Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez that might make the difference.  And then there's the Tampa Bay Rays, the 2008 champs, and the Toronto Blue Jays, to fight alongside the titans of Beantown and the Bronx.  We think the Rays are going to win a lot of games behind the emerging talent in Florida, but think it's going to be hard to win as many as they did last year.  The batters have to improve and the pitching stay consistent.  One of the two might let them down a bit.  For Toronto.  Well, let's face facts.  They can pitch, particularly Mr. Halladay.  And if they can coax better performances out of supposed stars of the present and future such as Rios and Wells, plus find a resurgent Scott Rolen, their victory totals could rise.  We just don't see that happening at enough of a pace to pass the three teams above them, though.

American League Central
Look out, folks, but those Indians are back.  The disappointing year of 2008 is behind them, and the resurgent hitters will ignite, including Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.  And don't discount those small moves again, here, with the additions of Mark DeRosa, at 10.155 PEVA, to those looking to rebound.  And I know, there are plenty of people out there who don't think Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee can repeat his season of last year.  Well, he can't, so let's get that out of the way right now.  At 47.147 Pitching PEVA and 22-3 W-L in 2008, he had the 21st best pitching year in baseball history.  But, yes, we also do believe that Lee will have a good to very good year and lead the Indians staff to 89 wins.  The additions of Kerry Wood, and the Smith's, both Greg and Joe, will help in that task as well.  We really like the Minnesota Twins, too.  Any team that can start out with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is ripe for a playoff spot run, but just think that their #19 pitching power ranking at the beginning of the year will be hard to push past Cleveland.  Joe Nathan's great, after all, and the young pitching improving, but they just won't give him enough opportunities to thwart the Indian resurgence.  Don't look now, but those Royals are on the move.  Give them another year and we'll be discussing them as in the mix for the title.  We really like what they are doing, and one move, way beneath the surface, is going to play big-time dividends in four to five years.  Mike Arbuckle, the drafting guru for the Philadephia Phillies during their era of picking Utley, Howard, Hamels, etc., has now joined the fold.  He knows good players.  The Royals are on their way back.  We know there are some who think the downturn of Detroit was a one year phenomena, but we're not sold on that cow.  Too far down to be very good for us.  And it will be another interesting year on the White Sox side of Chicago, but think the Sox are chasing .500 ball, not a division title.

American League West
Oh, those Los Angeles Angels, running away with the weakest division in baseball last year and flopping in the playoffs.  And yes, there is more than a slight correlation.  They feasted on the division last year; they rode KRod to all those inconsequential saves.  And while he'll certainly help solidify the Mets bullpen, we just don't think of him as irreplaceable, and consider Brian Fuentes as a solid arm in his stead.  Of course, we're concerned with the injury to Ervin Santana, but think there are enough arms here to win the division day over the suddenly veteran Oakland A's.  The addition of perennial OBP leader Bobby Abreu is just what the offense needs, and at a modest cost, too, and the A's are just too untested on the pitching front to be able to best a squad like the Angels over a 162 game test.  We like what the A's have done, and they will be competitive.  Holliday, Cabrera, Giambi, and the rest will score a lot more runs than last year.  But they are just too thin in tested major league pitching to overcome the Los Angeles of Anaheim squad.  And, no, we don't think the Rangers are for real.  Any team that is relying on Millwood and Padilla, even though they'll probably pitch better than average in a contract year, is too much to ask.  Again, they'll score runs, but give up a ton, and the Rangers are still waiting for their plus minor league system to toss enough new players to the big club in years to come to wrest control of the West from one of those California clubs.  Ichiro.  Enough said about the Mariners.  Another long year in the Pacific northwest.  It'll be better, but not good enough to even think about playoff ball.

Player Predictions 2010
Team Predictions 2010 AL
Team Predictions 2010 NL
Player Predictions 2009
Player Predictions 2009
PEVA Power Ranking
Shuffle Index 2009
Arbitration Figures Page
2008 Major League Baseball Player Grades
Best Postseason Pitching Years
Best Postseason Pitching Careers
Pitching Grades for 2008
Batting Grades for 2008
2008 Fielding Grades
2008 Team Ranks
Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheets
Fantasy Baseball Single Season Rankings
Fantasy Baseball Three Year Rolling Average Rankings
TeePossible Tees, T-Shirts for Fun, for Sports, for History

PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Batting
Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Yankees
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. New York Mets
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Atlanta Braves
7. Chicago Cubs
8. Boston Red Sox
9. Minnesota Twins
10. Baltimore Orioles
11. Oakland A's
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Milwaukee Brewers
14. Houston Astros
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Texas Rangers
17. Detroit Tigers
18. San Diego Padres
19. Florida Marlins
20. Washington Nationals
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. Seattle Mariners
24. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
25. Chicago White Sox
26. San Francisco Giants
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
29. Colorado Rockies
30. Cincinnati Reds

PEVA Shuffle 2009
Preseason Pitching
Power Rankings

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. New York Mets
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Cleveland Indians
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Tampa Bay Rays
10. Chicago Cubs
11. San Francisco Giants
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Atlanta Braves
14. Kansas City Royals
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Cincinnati Reds
17. Colorado Rockies
18. Houston Astros
19. Minnesota Twins
20. St. Louis Cardinals
21. Oakland A's
22. Milwaukee Brewers
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
24. Detroit Tigers
25. Washington Nationals
26. Seattle Mariners
27. Florida Marlins
28. San Diego Padres
29. Baltimore Orioles
30. Texas Rangers
Evaluation Scoreboard
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Pitchers 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 - 7 12 1
Hitters 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 - 7 12 1
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PEVA Player Grade
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

Coming in 2009
Batting Postseason Player Grades
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