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Baseball Evaluation
Team
Predictions 2009 - Standings |
Stat
Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
National League Predictions 2009
American
League
|
Wins |
Loss |
| American League East |
|
|
| New
York Yankees |
98 |
64 |
| Boston
Red Sox |
97 |
65 |
| Tampa
Bay Rays |
89 |
73 |
| Toronto
Blue Jays |
86 |
76 |
| Baltimore
Orioles |
74 |
88 |
| American League Central |
|
|
| Cleveland
Indians |
89 |
73 |
| Minnesota
Twins |
82 |
80 |
| Chicago
White Sox |
80 |
82 |
| Kansas
City Royals |
79 |
83 |
| Detroit
Tigers |
73 |
89 |
| American League West |
|
|
| Los
Angeles Angels |
83 |
79 |
| Oakland
A's |
77 |
85 |
| Texas
Rangers |
70 |
92 |
| Seattle
Mariners |
69 |
93 |
|
|
|
| Wild
Card Winner - Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Note:
Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index -
Preseason 2009 to wins and losses.
American League East
Yes, the power is in the east in the American League as well, but in
this division, there could be four teams winning more than half of
their games. Although the additions of the Yankees (think Sabathia,
Teixeira, and Burnett, just to start) vault them to the top, the injury
status of Alex Rodriguez throws the margins into a blender.
With
a #2 Power Ranking in the PEVA Shuffle Index in both pitching and
batting, it's hard not to see the Bronx Bombers back in the playoff
mix, but we're no longer too certain if they'll finish on top.
They are there for now, based on Shuffle numbers, but it's
going
to be close. The Boston Red Sox have been reloading in a more
subtle way. With five pitchers above 10.000 PEVA Player
Rating in
2008, they've added a few cagey vets in Smoltz and Penny, who if
healthy, could be a nice addition, but it's the small moves
for
players like Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez that might make the
difference. And then there's the Tampa Bay Rays, the 2008
champs,
and the Toronto Blue Jays, to fight alongside the titans of Beantown
and the Bronx. We think the Rays are going to win a lot of
games
behind the emerging talent in Florida, but think it's going to be hard
to win as many as they did last year. The batters have to
improve
and the pitching stay consistent. One of the two might let
them
down a bit. For Toronto. Well, let's face facts.
They
can pitch, particularly Mr. Halladay. And if they can coax
better
performances out of supposed stars of the present and future such as
Rios and Wells, plus find a resurgent Scott Rolen, their victory totals
could rise. We just don't see that happening at enough of a
pace
to pass the three teams above them, though.
American League Central
Look out, folks, but those Indians are back. The
disappointing year of 2008 is behind them, and the resurgent hitters
will ignite, including Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. And
don't discount those small moves again, here, with the additions of
Mark DeRosa, at 10.155 PEVA, to those looking to rebound. And
I know, there are plenty of people out there who don't think Cy Young
Award winner Cliff Lee can repeat his season of last year.
Well, he can't, so let's get that out of the way right now.
At 47.147 Pitching PEVA and 22-3 W-L in 2008, he had the 21st
best pitching year in baseball history. But, yes, we also do
believe that Lee will have a good to very good year and lead the
Indians staff to 89 wins. The additions of Kerry Wood, and
the Smith's, both Greg and Joe, will help in that task as well.
We really like the Minnesota Twins, too. Any team
that can start out with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is ripe for a
playoff spot run, but just think that their #19 pitching power ranking
at the beginning of the year will be hard to push past Cleveland.
Joe Nathan's great, after all, and the young pitching
improving, but they just won't give him enough opportunities to thwart
the Indian resurgence. Don't look now, but those Royals are
on the move. Give them another year and we'll be discussing
them as in the mix for the title. We really like what they
are doing, and one move, way beneath the surface, is going to play
big-time dividends in four to five years. Mike Arbuckle, the
drafting guru for the Philadephia Phillies during their era of picking
Utley, Howard, Hamels, etc., has now joined the fold. He
knows good players. The Royals are on their way back.
We know there are some who think the downturn of Detroit was
a one year phenomena, but we're not sold on that cow. Too far
down to be very good for us. And it will be another
interesting year on the White Sox side of Chicago, but think the Sox
are chasing .500 ball, not a division title.
American League West
Oh, those Los Angeles Angels, running away with the weakest division in
baseball last year and flopping in the playoffs. And yes,
there is more than a slight correlation. They feasted on the
division last year; they rode KRod to all those inconsequential saves.
And while he'll certainly help solidify the Mets bullpen, we
just don't think of him as irreplaceable, and consider Brian Fuentes as
a solid arm in his stead. Of course, we're concerned with the
injury to Ervin Santana, but think there are enough arms here to win
the division day over the suddenly veteran Oakland A's. The
addition of perennial OBP leader Bobby Abreu is just what the offense
needs, and at a modest cost, too, and the A's are just too untested on
the pitching front to be able to best a squad like the Angels over a
162 game test. We like what the A's have done, and they will
be competitive. Holliday, Cabrera, Giambi, and the rest will
score a lot more runs than last year. But they are just too
thin in tested major league pitching to overcome the Los Angeles of
Anaheim squad. And, no, we don't think the Rangers are for
real. Any team that is relying on Millwood and Padilla, even
though they'll probably pitch better than average in a contract year,
is too much to ask. Again, they'll score runs, but give up a
ton, and the Rangers are still waiting for their plus minor league
system to toss enough new players to the big club in years to come to
wrest control of the West from one of those California clubs.
Ichiro. Enough said about the Mariners.
Another long year in the Pacific northwest. It'll
be better, but not good enough to even think about playoff ball.
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Baseball
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| Hitters |
2 |
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0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
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12 |
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PEVA
Player Grade
BOXSCORE |
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate) |
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- Great |
| 15.000
- All Star Caliber |
| 10.000
- Good |
| 3.500 - Average |
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