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Baseball Evaluation
Player
Predictions 2009 - Most Valuable Player Race
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Stat
Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Cy Young Award Predictions 2009
MVP Race
| Projections 2009 |
HR |
RBI |
Ave. |
PEVA Pro |
| National League |
|
|
|
|
| 1. David Wright, NYM |
38 |
143 |
.311 |
32.757 |
| 2. Albert Pujols, SLN |
41 |
129 |
.373 |
31.978 |
| 3. Hanley Ramirez, FLA |
33 |
70 |
.307 |
28.902 |
| 4. Adrian Gonzalez, SDN |
41 |
137 |
.285 |
27.856 |
| 5. Ryan Howard, PHI |
49 |
143 |
.268 |
25.760 |
| 6. Carlos Beltran, NYN |
31 |
114 |
.289 |
25.383 |
| 7. Ryan Ludwick, SLN |
37 |
115 |
.295 |
23.253 |
| 8. Chase Utley, PHI |
33 |
106 |
.306 |
22.276 |
| 9. Chipper Jones, ATL |
25 |
84 |
.374 |
22.088 |
| 10. Prince Fielder, MIL |
38 |
115 |
.278 |
21.436 |
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|
|
|
|
| American League |
|
|
|
|
| 1. Joe Mauer, MIN |
9 |
88 |
.324 |
27.562 |
| 2. Justin Morneau, MIN |
28 |
132 |
.297 |
26.672 |
| 3. Nick Markakis, BAL |
20 |
90 |
.302 |
24.727 |
| 4. Grady Sizemore, CLE |
38 |
104 |
.275 |
23.274 |
| 5. Mark Teixeira, NYA |
36 |
134 |
.322 |
23.068 |
| 6. Matt Holliday, OAK |
31 |
110 |
.335 |
22.768 |
| 7. Josh Hamilton, TEX
|
32 |
133 |
.302 |
22.049 |
| 8. Alex Rodriguez, NYA
|
41 |
122 |
.301 |
21.732 |
| 9. Miguel Cabrera, DET
|
37 |
132 |
.309 |
21.192 |
| 10. Curtis Granderson, DET
|
22 |
69 |
.282 |
19.269 |
Note:
Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008,
3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.
Most Valuable Player Race - National League
It
should come as no surprise, since the best teams are in the East, that
the Most Valuable Player race will have a large number of candidates
for the top position player from that division. With former
National League MVP slimmer and happy in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard,
plus teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins there, there's always
gonna be a contender from the East. When you add in the trio in
New York of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, and lest we forget, future Hall
of Fame member Chipper Jones and suddenly not quite so happy Hanley
Ramirez, nobody should be surprised by a victor from that division. Of
course, Albert Pujols will have something to say about that, as the
last half dozen years have proved. And some new players will
emerge as they always do. But from the perspective of the numbers
at baseballevalution.com, the man we think is on the verge of Most
Valuable Player status, and our favorite for 2009, is David Wright,
third baseman of the New York Mets.
1. David Wright, 3B, NYN - He's moving into a new park and has been
moving in the territory of best player in the league for the last
several years. He'll be only 27 years old by the end of 2009 and
should be continuing to improve. With remarkable consistency for
a young player over the last four years (19.979, 20.464, 28.574, 24.501
PEVA Player Rating from 2005-2008), we expect Wright to improve even
further, raising his game into the 35 plus homer territory and Golden
Glove fielder arena in 2009.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN - What can you say about Albert?
Well, kinda the same thing we've been saying for the past couple
years and the rest of baseball has been saying as well. We are
witnessing one of the best players in MLB history, who's on track for
not only a Hall of Fame designation about twenty years from now, but
once he gets there, could be lauded as one of the top ten hitters of
all-time. So here he is again, a perennial candidate for MVP.
He's still under thirty folks, younger than Ryan Howard, and not
ready to slow down any time soon.
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA - New contract. Upcoming ballpark with
a roof to keep out the humidity. A few rules and he's not happy
anyway. But that won't slow Ramirez down. With this much
talent only turning 26 in 2009, there's no telling what type of number
he might put up, particularly if they push him down the lineup where
his skills probably belong. Could 30 HR and 30 SB turn into
40/40? Don't be surprised if they do.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Some people are going
to be surprised that Adrian Gonzalez, the first sacker of the Padres is
on this list, mainly because he can't really win the MVP playing for
San Diego. And with the abiliity of the Padres to finish way behind
the pack, he'll even be under-appreciated even if he continues his
progression into stardom. However, Gonzalez finished with 36 HR and
119 RBI and 0.510 SLG in that Grand Canyon of a park last year. Keep
an eye on this fellow.
Most Valuable Player Race - American League
Twins,
free agent sluggers from the Bronx, or an emerging player from what we
think this year will be a good team, Cleveland, or a bad team,
Baltimore. Well, if his back holds up (we're not prediciting
injury here at all, just a number progression), we think it's time to
give the second Twin, Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the bigs
since Mike Piazza, the nod. Oh, yes, there'll have to be winners
of their division, or at least a playoff team, to pull votes from one
of the bigger market clubs. How many people really think Dustin
Pedroia, was better, or more important, to his team than Mauer even
last year? But if they do make the playoffs, and a catcher
continues to put up numbers in the territory Mauer has been, look
out!
1.
Joe Mauer, C, MIN - Yes, it would be tough to pick a catcher with a
balky spring training back if you're just doing a subjective analysis,
but we're not. We're going off the fact that last year, at 25 years of
age, a catcher hit 0.328, was on base 0.413, and scored 98 runs.
And we think it's certainly possible that his nine homers will
improve, although he's not shown any predisposition for that.
Will he DH more often in 2009? Maybe. Will that help
his chances for MVP? Not sure, but as long as he plays the
majority of his games behind the plate, it probably's not gonna hurt.
2. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN -
We didn't think Justin deserved his MVP in 2006, but that's not to say
anything bad about a guy who jacks 20-35 HR and knocks in over 100
while hitting 0.300. And it's hard to pick which Twin will
actually nudge ahead in the race for best of Minnesota, but with these
two, it will be a fun time in the upper midwest in 2009.
3. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL - Unless Markakis puts up stupendous numbers
or the Orioles suddenly shock the baseball world and get competitive
with the behemoths in Boston and New York again, he's not going to win,
but Nick is going to continue his surge into the upper echelon of
American League batters, this year and in years to come.
.300/.406/0.491 BA/OBP/SLG in 2008 at 25 years of age.
Things are looking up in Baltimore as long as Markakis is
patrolling the outfield.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, we actually think the
sleeper is Markakis, but will go with the next player on the list,
because some folks in baseball still haven't caught on with the Grady
Sizemore train, but that's probably due to a commuter slip on the
platform. We think Cleveland's gonna rebound this year and win the
division. If they do, a good portion of the reason will be due to
Sizemore, their do it all outfielder. Last year, Cliff Lee won the Cy
Young; 2009 could be the date for Sizemore to win the MVP.
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