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Baseball Evaluation
Player
Predictions 2010 - Cy Young Award
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Stat
Geek Baseball Predictions 2010
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2010
Our Predictions - As of 10-3-2010
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Who we think should win - Roy Halladay
Who we think will win - Roy Halladay
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Who we think should win - Felix Hernandez
Who we think will win - CC Sabathia
TOP FIVE PEVA PERFORMERS IN 2010
1. Roy Halladay, PHI 43.916
2. Adam Wainwright, SLN 36.190
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA 29.460
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL 28.985
5. TIm Hudson, ATL 23.365
Top 40 Pitchers
Our Preseason Predictions
Cy Young Award Race
| Projections 2010 |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
PEVA Pro |
| National League |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Tim Lincecum, SFN |
18 |
6 |
0 |
2.80 |
45.430 |
| 2. Dan Haren, ARI |
16 |
10 |
0 |
3.37 |
33.994 |
| 3. Adam Wainwright, SLN |
22 |
7 |
0 |
2.99 |
33.012 |
| 4. Roy Halladay, PHI |
18 |
11 |
0 |
2.94 |
29.784 |
| 5. Matt Cain, SFN |
16 |
11 |
0 |
3.28 |
24.918 |
| 6. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL |
18 |
10 |
0 |
3.76 |
24.490 |
| 7. Jair Jurrjens, ATL |
15 |
10 |
0 |
3.30 |
22.809 |
| 8. Ted Lilly, CHN |
16 |
8 |
0 |
3.56 |
21.774 |
| 9. Josh Johnson, FLO |
15 |
5 |
0 |
4.14 |
21.323 |
| 10. Randy Wolf, MIL |
12 |
6 |
0 |
3.75 |
20.452 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| American League |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Zach Grienke, KCA |
17 |
8 |
0 |
2.84 |
44.495 |
| 2. Javier Vazquez, NYA |
16 |
11 |
0 |
3.68 |
33.584 |
| 3. Felix Hernandez, SEA |
19 |
7 |
0 |
3.03 |
33.547 |
| 4. C.C. Sabathia, NYA |
23 |
7 |
0 |
3.61 |
32.309 |
| 5. Justin Verlander, DET |
22 |
11 |
0 |
3.89 |
31.323 |
| 6. Cliff Lee, SEA |
13 |
11 |
0 |
3.72 |
25.629 |
| 7. Jon Lester, BOS |
20 |
6 |
0 |
3.55 |
22.889 |
| 8. Mariano Rivera, NYA |
6 |
4 |
37 |
2.00 |
22.783 |
| 9. Josh Beckett, BOS |
20 |
8 |
0 |
4.14 |
21.093 |
| 10. Joel Pineiro, LAA |
12 |
11 |
0 |
4.16 |
20.240 |
|
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|
|
|
|
Note:
Peva Pro predictions for 2010 based on relationship of PEVA 2009,
3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.
Cy Young Award Race 2010 - National League
Well,
last year, we were one for two, selecting Tim Lincecum in the National
League for the one, and Roy Halladay in the American, which was the for
two. No, we didn't see Zach Grienke coming. Now this year,
we're starting to repeat ourselves, well, we're at least starting to
pick repeat winners. But that's how the projections came out and
we're thinking that Mr. Lincecum and Mr. Grienke will be back on top of
the podium as Cy Young Award winners in 2010. But there's going
to be a lot of movement in the stratosphere, particularly in the
National League with lots of newcomers in the mix, and not only
transplant Halladay. There's going to be some hardware given out
some year for the group of Jurrjens, Haren, Wainwright, Cain, and
Jimenez, and it could start now.
1. Tim Lincecum, P, SFN - Could it really be three in a row for the San
Francico Bay kid who looks a lot more like a snowboarder than a major
league hurler. This wouldn't be too hard to imagine. But it
would be the first time since 2003 when Randy Johnson got his last of
four in a row. One other pitcher accomplished it, too, Greg
Maddux from 1992-1996, since the Award began back in 1956. If
Lincecum can get those 18 predicted wins with an ERA of 2.80, he might
just become the third.
2. Dan Haren, P, ARI - I think most people assumed that if an
Arizona Diamondback would win another Cy Young Award that it would be a
repeat of Brandon Webb in 2006, but ever since Haren came over from the
Oakland A's, he's been really good. Another year like last year
and his name will be near the top of the list of Cy Young candidates,
even if his team does not contend for a title.
3. Adam Wainwright, P, SLN - Most people think the Cardinals are
bound to win a lot of games, and if that's true, it's likely going to
be Wainwright and Carpenter that lead the way. In this era of
rare twenty game winners, if Wainwright reaches that plateau, he's
going to be hard to beat for the Award.
Best
of the Rest - Sleeper. For some reason we think it's possible
that a San Francisco Giant wins the award that it could be Lincecum's
teammate Matt Cain. With an improved offense and a pitcher's
park, he'll likely put up good numbers. It's the competition for
votes with his teammate that might be the hardest thing to beat.
Cy Young Award Race 2010 - American League
Sure,
they deleted Roy Halladay from the normal talk in the American League
after the Blue Jay firesale of veteran talent, but that doesn't mean
the American League Cy Young race is devoid of perennial contestants.
Beyond a repeat of Grienke, which we think it possible, there's
the triumverate of Sabatha, Cliff Lee, and Josh Beckett to contend
with. And don't put it past some Yankee to steal the crown.
There's going to be a lot of wins to share amongst those top four
starters out there, and however garners the most, is bound to be among
the top contenders.
1.
Zach Grienke, P, KCA - Folks, it's really tough to have the kind of
season Zach had last year for a team that doesn't win that many games.
And we don't think that season was a fluke. And it was one
of historic and special qualities, ranking as the 2nd best season ever
by a Kansas City Royal, behind only Bret Saberhagan's marvelous 1989
season, as well as ranking the #50 best season ever by a pitcher.
Could Grienke fall off the pitching wagon. Sure. But
we think there's something good going on here. Guess we'll just
have to wait and see.
2. Javier Vazquez, P, NYA -
We know the first time around for Vazquez in New York didn't work out
as well as he or the team hoped, but we think it will be different this
time around. With maturity and the success of last year, plus a
team that's going to make winners out of a lot of pitchers who give up
four runs, we think Vazquez could be due for a repeat of his
performance with the Braves in 2009. But as we said above, we
wouldn't be too surprised if the best Yankee pitcher, and thus, highest
in the Cy Young voting would be Sabathia or Rivera either. We
don't think it will be Burnett or Pettite though.
3. Felix Hernandez, P, SEA - These are the days when Mariners test the
waters and find positive land, land that has playoff muster, and if
that's to be the case, they'll be led by the man with the Felix touch.
We fully expect both Hernandez and Cliff Lee to do well in 2010.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. It's a bit of a retread of the logic
behind our sleeper in the MVP Award for the American League, but if the
Tigers do better than expected and contend with the Twins in the
Central, it will be behind the bat of Cabrera and the arm of Verlander.
He's our sleeper pick here and it wouldn't be out of the question
for him to take the prize.
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