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Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication Date: 11/10/2012

UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

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Great gift for the baseball
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player



Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League 2013-2014

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of December 30
Free Agent Players
Jesse Crain signs 1 year $3.25m contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
 Houston gets bargain in Crain.  SPRO $4,304,000. Crain's kinda an odd duck in the fact that over recent years, his IP are down, but so is his ERA.  But, he's good when he pitches.

Week of December 16
Free Agent Players
Jamey Wright signs 1 year $1.8m contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers get bargain in Wright.  Okay, so it seems as if they've signed their thirtieth player to the 25 man roster, but ... hey, this is a good deal.  Wright is remarkably consistent and even improving into his late 30's.  SPRO $2,665,000.

Chris Perez signs 1 year $2.3m contract with Dodgers, including $5.7m in incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers get bargain in Perez.  That's assuming somebody tells the Dodgers there's a 25 man roster limit as they continue to add potential closers to their bullpen.  SPRO $5,086,000, not trying to figure out the roles.

Shin-Soo Choo signs 7 year $130m contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Texas pays market value for Choo.  Too long for us, but the $ per year are about right.  SPRO 5 years $83,766,000, but with an extra two years, which we'd value at $18m per or so, that would bring us just to $120m.  Okay, guess this is what you have to pay.  Choo is a consistent player, so in those first five years, we'd expect Texas to do fine.  Still don't like those extra two.

Kurt Suzuki signs 1 year $2.75m contract, plus incentives with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota gets bargain in Suzuki.  Of course, that depends, in the end on the incentive structure, and it's not a bad deal for Suzuki either, with the possibility of getting additional playing time now that Joe Mauer has been moved to first.  SPRO $3,873,000.

Scott Downs signs 1 year $3.75m contract, plus vesting option at $4.25m and $250,000 buyout with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox overpay for Downs.  The odd thing is, he had a good year last year, but his three year overall trends are down, and he's 37.  SPRO $2,116,000.

Raul Ibanez signs 1 year $2.75m contract, plus $2.25m incentives with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Ibanez.  Yes, he's old, but surprisingly productive.  Now, LAA doesn't really need him and it seems Ibanez wants to be there.  SPRO $6,225,000.

Joaquin Benoit signs 2 year $15.5m contract with Padres, including $8m vesting option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Diego pays market value for Benoit.  SPRO 2 years $13,750,000 for 2014, but okay with a 3rd year.  Two year deal at higher per year level with vesting option may be an even better deal for Padres.

Casey McGehee signs 1 year $1.1m contract, plus incentives with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami pays market value for McGehee.  It's tough to value a player coming back from Japan after the juiced ball year in Nippon, so we're fine with where Miami went with this.  SPRO $852,000.

Jose Veras signs 1 year $4m contract, plus incentives and $5.5m option for 2nd year with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago Cubs pay market value for Veras.  Be okay with straight two year deal.  SPRO $3,721,000 for 2014 w/2nd year at $3,851,000.

Grant Balfour signs 2 year $15m contract with Orioles.  CONTRACT IS DENIED AFTER PHYSICAL BY CLUB.
SPRO Analysis -
 Baltimore pays market value for Balfour.  SPRO 2 years $15,712,000 and okay with a 3rd year.

Matt Thornton signs 2 year $7m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees overpay for Thornton.  Look, we admit, there's something going on here.  Yes, that pending national tv contract is increasing salaries and it might be in the range of 25%.  But, the Yankees are paying Thornton double.  SPRO $1,581,000.  Why are we so far down on Thornton.  Try three straight years of ERA increase at the age of 37.

Brian Roberts signs 1 year $2m contract with Yankees, plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees overpay for Roberts.  In the last four years, Brian Roberts has averaged 4 HR, 20 RBI.  Yes, the valuation for last year would have been around the $2m mark, but you can't discount the former years.  Well, you can, but should you?  I guess if you're in a race to sign old players with the Phils, you should.  SPRO $1,248,000.

John Axford signs 1 year $4.5m contract with Indians, plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cleveland overpays for Axford.  SPRO $3,017,000, but okay with 2nd year for 2 years $7,131,000.

Gavin Floyd signs 1 year $4m contract plus $4.5m incentives with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta overpays for Floyd.  SPRO 2 years $6,400,000 with 2014 salary of $3,145,000.  Clubs seem to be discounting injury concerns, although this contract accounts for them in some ways with the incentive structure.

Mark Ellis signs 1 year $5.25m contract with Cardinals, plus $1m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 St. Louis pays market value for Ellis.  Yes, he's older, but remarkably consistent.  Yes, he's not great, but probably worth a 2nd year at slightly lower per year value.  We're okay with it.  SPRO 2 years $9,355,000.

Matt Albers signs 1 year $2.45m contract with Astros, including $3m team option for 2nd season with $200,000 buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Houston gets bargain in Albers.  Down year last, but overall a solid sign for Houston.  SPRO $3,177,000 and okay with 2nd year.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Eric Chavez signs 1 year $3m contract, plus $1m incentives with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
 Arizona pays market value for Chavez.  SPRO $3,043,000.

Franklin Gutierrez signs 1 year $1m contract, plus $2m incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
 Seattle pays market value for Gutierrez.  SPRO $1,342,000.

J.P. Howell signs 2 year $11.25m contract with Dodgers, including mutual/vesting option for $6.25m for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Howell.  Yes, he's worth the per year number they paid if based just on last year.  And yes, he's had years like last year before, but there was the case of those couple years in between.  High for us.  SPRO 2 years $7,750,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Daric Baron signs 1 year $1.2m contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis -  
Oakland overpays for Barton.  At this point, after three straight seasons where his plate appearances dropped, Barton is barely above the minimum level of performance of a AAAA player.  SPRO $839,000.

Brad Ziegler signs 2 year $10.5m contract with Diamondbacks, including $5.5m option for 3rd year with $1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -  
Arizona gets bargain in Ziegler.  The type of pitcher SPRO is willing to give more to; his ERA has been under 2.50 for four straight years.  SPRO 2 years $13,293,000 or 3 years $20,291,000.

Charlie Furbush signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -  
Seattle pays market value for Furbush.  This is a bit of an odd case, as its not known for sure whether Furbush will, in the end, qualify for Super Two Arbitration status or not.  He's next in line and one of the other Super Two's might graduate to straight 3.000 MLST territory. So, Seattle has signed him before that's known.  SPRO $593,000 if no Super Two; $1,217,000 if he is Super Two.

Brandon Beachy signs 1 year $1.45m contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -  
Atlanta pays  market value for Beachy.  SPRO $1,369,000.

Cheap baseball tickets

Week of December 2 and December 9
Free Agent Players
Justin Morneau signs 2 year $12.5m contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
 Colorado pays market value for Morneau.  SPRO 2 years $13,541,000.  So it's a bit of a bargain and we'd be okay with a 3rd year.

Omar Infante signs 4 year $30m contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
 Kansas City overpays for Infante.  SPRO 3 years $17,322,000.  KC is paying Infante as if he's a durable every day player, but that's only happened twice in his career.  Even last year, which was a good one, he played 118 games.  You know what that means, if history means anything, something like 44 other games a replacement level player plays for him.  But they're paying him as if he's playing.

Joba Chamberlain signs 1 year $2.5m contract with Tigers plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Detroit overpays for Chamberlain.  Who would have thought when he was a rookie that you'd be saying Joba would only get $2.5m as a free agent?  Who would have thought it would qualify as an overpay?  SPRO $1,141,000.  Downhill for years, but still young, so the Tigers are banking on hope that the talent will now come out.

Boone Logan signs 3 year $14m contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
 Colorado overpays for Logan.  SPRO $2,390,000 and only for one year.  Almost five million dollars to a 39 IP pitcher.  Yes, his low for years, but still not for us at that price.

Mike Morse signs 1 year $5-6m contract with Giants plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Francisco pay market value for Morse.  SPRO $5,252,000.

Robert Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) signs 1 year contract for $4.5m with $1.5m incentives with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
 Philadelphia pay market value for Hernandez.  SPRO $4,863,000.

Bartolo Colon signs 2 year $20m contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Mets get bargain in Colon.  We haven't said bargain too often, and this is more market value than bargain, but hey, we wanted to use the word.  Colon, even though over 40, has rebounded for three straight years.  SPRO 2 years $22,662,000, and would have been okay with a 3rd.

Edison Volquez signs 1 year $5m contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
 Pittsburgh pays market value for Volquez.  SPRO $5,493,000.

Corey Hart signs 1 year $6m contract with $7m incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
 Seattle overpays for Hart.  SPRO $4,757,000.  But with the incentive structure here, it's actually okay.

Rajai Davis signs 2 year $8-9m (estimated) contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Detroit overpays for Davis.  If the numbers above are correct, it's an overpay for a player that may be starting to wane.  SPRO 2 years $6,005,000.

Felipe Paulino signs 1 year $1.75m contract with White Sox, including team option for $4m for 2nd year w/$250,000 buyout.
SPRO Analysis -  
Chicago White Sox overpay for Paulino.  He didn't pitch in 2013 and we're not sure why a premium should be payed to players with a limited market.  SPRO $1,185,000.

Chad Qualls signs 2 year $6m contract with Astros, including team option for $3.5m for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -  
Houston pay market value for Qualls.  Wouldn't have gone for the extra year or two.  SPRO 1 year $2,767,000.

Carlos Beltran signs 3 year $45m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Yankees pay market value for Beltran.  They say he took three million less to play in New York.  Well, that's what SPRO says, too, with a 3 year $48,268,000 value.  And it's possible that Beltran outperforms Ellsbury.

Nate McLouth signs 2 year $$10.75m contract with Nationals, including team option fo third years at $6.5m.
SPRO Analysis -  
Washington pays market value for McLouth.  A bit high coming off a good year, but within range.  SPRO 2 years $9,343,000.

J.P. Arencibia signs 1 year $1.8m contract with Rangers, including $300,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis -  
Texas gets bargain in Arencibia.  Non-tendered by Toronto, because they were afraid of an arbitration number, Texas picked up a young slugging catcher/dh who had a terrible season last year.  But he's only 27 and under team control for three years if they want it.  SPRO $2,501,000.

Garrett Jones signs 2 year $7-$8m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -  
Miami gets bargain in Jones.  Nothing spectacular and coming off a down year, but he's pretty durable and they don't have much in the way of offensive players in Miami.  SPRO 2 years $12,446,000.

Robinson Cano signs 10 year $240m contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -  
Seattle overpays for Cano.  Well, this is one deal, while too high, of course, has some logic to it.  Seattle wants to get relevant again and fill seats.  They want to prove to the rest of baseball that they're still in the league.  Waalah.  They are.  Will this work out in the end, at 41 years of age?  Doubt it.  SPRO 6 years $121,987,000.

Curtis Granderson signs 4 year $60m contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Mets overpay for Granderson.  Another overpay that makes sense.  Last year, you couldn't get Granderson for under $18m per; this year it's probably worth near the SPRO of 4 years and $46,095,000.  So they settled for somewhere in the middle.  There's a pretty good chance that Granderson rebounds from this odd injury year and he'll be worth the contract.

Scott Feldman signs 3 year $30m contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -  
Houston overpays for Feldman.  Once again trying to prove they're not in the minors, the Astros have decided Feldman might help the kiddie corps compete.  He did last year, but has not been consistent enough over his career to warrant this.  SPRO 3 years $17,094,000.  And with him, they're still not going to be competitive now.

Rafael Furcal signs 1 year $3m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -  
Miami overpays for Furcal.  It's not 2005.  He's 36.  There's few places where a starting job would be his to compete for.  SPRO $1,766,000.

Ronald Belisario signs 1 year $3m contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  
Chicago White Sox overpay for Belisario.  Not bad, but curious to why clubs are paying free agents caused by a non-tender more than they'd get in arbitration.  Maybe even curioser, in this case, is why the Dodgers would non-tender an effective reliever.  Oh, that's right, they have a case of the not a big name, we don't want him.  SPRO $2,265,000.

Willie Bloomquist signs 2 year $5.8m contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -  
Seattle overpays for Bloomquist.  He's been slowly going downhill the last few years in effectiveness, but he may have gotten a homecoming bonus.  SPRO 1 year $1,634,000.

Wil Nieves signs 1 year $1.125m contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -  
Philadelphia pays market value for Nieves.  SPRO $1,202,000.

Jacoby Ellsbury
signs 7 year $153m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Yankees overpay for Ellsbury.  Don't get us wrong, we like this guy, just not enough to pretend he's consistently one of the top players in the game.  Ellsbury has the tendency to ping pong years, usually due to injury.  Just had a good one, which followed a bad one, which followed a great one, which followed a bad one, which followed a good one.  You get the picture.  Not going to be worth this in our estimation.  SPRO 4 years $49,814,000.

Kelly Johnson signs 1 year $3m contract with Yankees. (pending)
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Yankees get bargain in Johnson.  SPRO $4,111,000.

A.J. Pierzynski signs 1 year $8.25m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  
Boston pays market value for Pierzynski.  A.J. apprently turned down three year deals to come here and he's worth this per year number over that span.  SPRO for 2014, $8,663,000.

Joe Nathan signs 2 year $20m contract with Tigers, including team option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis -  
Detroit gets bargain in Nathan.  Yes, he'd old, but he's really been good the last two years.  SPRO 3 years $37,689,000.

Wesley Wright signs 1 year $1.424m contract with Chicago Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -  
Chicago Cubs pays market value for Wright.  A little high for a non-tender, but in the ballpark.  SPRO $1,163,000.

Edward Mujica signs 2 year $9.5m contract with Red Sox. (Pending)
SPRO Analysis -  
Boston gets bargain in Mujica.  First off, we're surprised Mujica is not going somewhere he can close; anywhere, in fact. Yes, he waned down the stretch and was replaced in that role, but overall he's been very good the last couple years.  SPRO 2 years $15,065,000, but that only works if he's in an expanded role that includes closing.

Jarred Saltalamacchia signs 3 year $21m contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -  
Miami pays market value for Saltalamacchia.  Finally a signing that makes more than a bit of sense.  In fact, it's even slightly lower than the SPRO value.  SPRO 3 years $22,122,000.

Scott Kazmir signs 2 year $22m contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis -  
Oakland overpays for Kazmir.  Well, this might be the worst contract so far.  Coming off one decent year after two years where he pitched a total of 1.7 IP, the Athletics have decided it doesn't matter if he has a history of concerns, or that in his past good year, 2013, he barely pitched over 5 innings per start.  He'd have to have two good years in a row to, ... well, ... even if he does in 2014 what he did in 2013, he's a $6m per year pitcher.  SPRO $2,756,000.

Dionar Navarro signs 2 year $8m contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -  
Toronto overpays for Navarro.  Change of use; Toronto sees him as a starter, explains most of the reason why we say  this, although another, the fact that 2013 was the first in four years that Navarro had 200 AB's, does create some cause for concern.  SPRO $2,883,000 for one year.

Free Agent Players Re-Sign with Club
Juan Uribe signs 2 year $11m contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Uribe.  Little more than a utility infielder forced into a more prominent role.  Lot of money for someone you'd rather not be playing there.  SPRO 2 years $7,827,000.

Mike Pelfrey signs 2 year $11m contract with Twins, plus $3.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota pays market value for Pelfrey.  SPRO 2 years $11,455,000.

James Loney signs 3 year $21m contract with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
 Tampa Bay pays market value for Loney.  SPRO 3 years $21,579,000.

Mike Napoli signs 2 year $32m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  
Boston overpay for Napoli.  He got them a World Series ring and knocked in alot of RBI, but we think this is an overreach, a value more in line with an extra year.  SPRO 3 years $29,730,000.

Hiroki Kuroda signs 1 year $16m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -  
New York Yankees pay market value for Kuroda.  Really worth more than a one year deal, but didn't really want that.  SPRO $14,797,000 but with two extra years added.

Juan Carlos Oviedo signs 1 year $1.5m contract with Marlins, including $1.4m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -  
Miami overpays for Oviedo.  Maybe there should be a rule.  If a guy isn't sure what his name is (used to be Leo Nunez) and hasn't pitched for two years, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. There's doubt here for us.  SPRO $988,000.

Brian Wilson
signs 1 year $10m contract with Dodgers, including $8.5m player option for 2015.
SPRO Analysis -  
Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Wilson.  Huge. Hard to believe.  They just paid a pitcher, who pitched less than 20 innings last season between the regular and postseason, and at most will pitch 70 in a good year, to possibly be a setup man at $10m per year.  Que lastima!  SPRO 1 year $4,992,000.

Paul Konerko signs 1 year $2.5m contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  
Chicago White Sox gets bargain in Konerko.  Yes, his stats are waning over the past three years, but, he's going to be worth it, and we wouldn't be surprised if Konerko plays more than folks think. SPRO $5,681,000.

More Hot Stove League

Arbitration Contracts
Charlie Morton signs 3 year $21m contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -  
Pittsburgh overpays for Morton.  Yes, they avoided arbitration, but at a steep price.  Okay, we acknowledge, he's a ping poin player who's pong has improved with each ping.  But history shows this coming year won't be great.  Never an inning eater either.  He'd have to do two years in a row of last year's production for us to do that.  SPRO 2 years $6.22m.

Ryan Webb signs 2 year $4.5m contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -  
Baltimore pays market value for Webb.  SPRO doesn't add the second year, but if it did, the number here are sensible.  SPRO has 2014 at $1,641,000.  Webb gives consistent innings and seems to be on the track to improve.

Ryan Hanigan signs 3 year $10,750,000 contract with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -  
Tampa Bay pays market value for Hanigan.  A bit high and too long, but not bad.  SPRO would only pay for one year at $2,057,000.

Kevin Frandsen signs 1 year $900,000 contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -  
Philadelphia pays market value for Frandsen.  Actually a small bargain with SPRO at $1,118,000.


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FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.


More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012

Hot Stove - December 2012

Hot Stove - January 2013

Hot Stove - February 2013

Hot Stove - March 2013

Hot Stove - November 2013

Hot Stove - December 2013
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).



 
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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