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Stat Geek Baseball PRO11

More Unique Stats
and Salary Projections
Than You Can Shake a
Hickory Stick At!

Find Out What Your
Favorite Free Agent,
Arbitration Eligible,
and other Players
are worth BEFORE
they sign.

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.

PEVA Player

 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

Free Agent 2009-2010
Contract Analysis

November 2009 Signings
December 2009 Signings
January 2010 Signings
2009-2010 Free Agent List

Offered Arbitration
Grant Balfour (TBA)
Adrian Beltre (BOS)
Carl Crawford (TBA)
Jorge de la Rosa (COL)
Adam Dunn (WAS)
Frank Francisco (TEX)
Paul Konerko (CHA)
Cliff Lee (TEX)
Victor Martinez (BOS)
Carl Pavano (MIN)
Rafael Soriano (TBA)
Jayson Werth (PHI)

Not Offered Arbitration
Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)
Matt Guerrier (MIN)
Derek Jeter (NYA)
Bengie Molina (TEX)
Magglio Ordonez (DET)
Andy Pettite (NYA)
A.J. Pierzynski (CHA)
Manny Ramirez (CHA)
Mariano Rivera (NYA)
Dan Wheeler (TBA)

Current teams with Type A players signed by another team would receive a Mid-1st Round to
Mid-2nd Round compensation pick from the signing team, plus a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd Round from the league.
A team losing a Type A Free Agent to a team signing more than one Type A Free Agent may receive a lower round pick.

Offered Arbitration
Joaquin Benoit (TBA)
John Buck (TOR)
Randy Choate (TBA)
Kevin Correia (TBA)
Jesse Crain (MIN)
Octavio Dotel (COL)
Pedro Feliciano (NYN)
John Garland (SDN)
Brad Hawpe (TBA)
Aaron Heilman (ARI)
Trevor Hoffman (MIL)
Orlando Hudson (MIN)
Adam LaRoche (ARI)
Felipe Lopez (BOS)
Chad Qualls (TBA)
J.J. Putz (CHA)
Yorvit Torrealba (TBA)
Juan Uribe (SFN)
Javier Vazquez (NYA)

The current team that loses a Type B player receives compensation from the league with a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds, but below Type A compensation picks.  The team signing that player is not required to give up draft pick compensation.
Stat Geek Baseball

Free Agent 2010-11 Contract Analysis

Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2011 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal?  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salary projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball Pro11 Current and History books, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2010 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2011 Contracts
2010-11 Free Agents
Free Agent Spotlight
Jayson Werth
Bill Hall

November 2010 Signings
Recent Signings
Free Agent Headline
Miguel Tejada signs 1 year $6,500,000 contract with San Francisco.

SPRO Analysis
Giants get bargain in Tejada.  Even though Miguel is no longer the player who will compete for an MVP title and is 36 years of age, he's still a productive player with 15 HR and 71 RBI in 2010, and that's with half of the season's home games played in the Grand Canyon of baseball, San Diego's Petco Park.  SPRO projection puts him at $8,641,000 in 2011.  How productive he'll be, we'll have to see, but we'd rather give him a three year contract at Uribe's numbers than Uribe.

Free Agent Headline

Juan Uribe signs 3 year $21,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers overpay for Uribe.  2010 was Uribe's best season in the majors and would be worth the $given if you expect him to repeat it. We think it's a stretch to think he will.  We saw a career backup/platoon player with one year stats and SPRO thinks Uribe is worth a three years contract at $15,122,000.
Free Agent Headline
Jorge de la Rosa signs 3 year $32,000,000 contract with Colorado.  Deal includes a player option on the 3rd year and a club option on the 4th year at $11m.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies overpay for de la Rosa.  This is a pitcher with skills, but will be 30 years old next year and only once in his career has pitched  more than 130 innings and has a career ERA of 5.01.  Seems too much to us and too risky.  Sure, his ERA has been dropping and that's in the air of Colorado, so maybe this contract will work out for  the Rockies, but we're skeptical.  SPRO projection called for a two year contract for a total of $10,776,000.

Free Agent Headline

Yorvit Torrealba signs 2 year $6.250,000 contract with Texas.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Torrealba.  Great catcher with modest hitting skills, this contract reflects a reasonable deal for Texas for this 32 year old receiver.  Slightly high for our taste, considering his modest hitting skills, although they will be helped by hitting in that stadium.  SPRO projection 2 years and $5,358,000.

Free Agent Headline

Javier Vazquez signs 1 year $7.000,000 contract with Florida. This is a preliminary announcement and may include additional incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Marlins get bargain in Vazquez.  This is a bit of an odd circumstance.  He just pitched last year in New York and pitched worse than any year in his career, but then again, it was New York, where he had pitched badly before.  In 2007 and 2009, he was great.  The only way this isn't a bargain, is if he repeats last year.  And if he approaches either of those two years above when his PEVA rating was over 20.000, which is all-league caliber, then they've gotten a fantastic steal, not a bargain.  Reports are he turned down $10m per year for two years to pitch near home with hopes of getting a large payday if he pitches well.  SPRO projected a contract in the range of $16m in 2011, which does mean he has to return to norm to meet that expectation.  We'll have to wait and see if he does.
Free Agent Headline
Jon Garland signs 1 year $5.000,000 contract with Dodgers, with additional $3,000,000 in performance bonuses.  Deal also includes $8m club option that vests automatically with 190 innings pitched in 2011..

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Garland.  If he pitches his usual amount of innings, this deal will be close to the SPRO one year num ber of $8,810,000, but it's kinda odd that Garland accepting such a low guarantee.  He's not a bad pitcher folks, maybe not a number one, but as a three or four he'll give you innings and wins at an ERA that's not bad.  Plus he's actually been improving over the last three years.  We're not sure why the low amount of years either.  There will be pitchers signing contract for three and four years who are not as good as Garland, and we think he deserves one, too, with four years and $37,133,000 not out of the question.
Free Agent Headline
Victor Martinez signs 4 year $50.000,000 contract with Detroit.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers pay market value for Martinez.  It's not a bad deal, even though we think it's one year too much and about twenty percent too high.  But they were bidding against Boston and that's to be expected if you want to win that auction.  Our concern is the trend line.  While it looks on the surface as if Martinez is very consistent, there is a slight drop in his production almost every year, even when you discount 2008.  His PEVA values have gone from 17.952 in 2005 to 15.915 to 15.500 to 14.976 to 10.218 in 2010.  That's a hard thing to ignore.  SPRO calcuates a projected contract of 3 years and $31,540,000, taking that into account..

Free Agent Headline
Aubrey Huff signs 2 year $22,000,000 contract with San Francisco, including $10m club option for a third year with $2m buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Giants pay market value for Huff.  And we're even okay with a fourth year.  SPRO projects a 2011 salary of $11,166,000 and a full contract term of 4 years and $47,066,000.  Huff has a tendency to pogo.  Up for a year, down for a year, but the overall trend still shows his up is equal to or better than career averages.  He was just what the Giants needed in 2010 and for the next couple years, every one of two, he'll likely be that again.
Free Agent Headline
Joaquin Benoit signs 3 year $16.500,000 contract with Detroit.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers overpay for Benoit.  They're at it again.  GM taking one year and extrapolating into the future, disregarding a player's track record.  Benoit had a great setup year in 2010 and if paid for that one year, would deserve a $5m contract.  But, and it's a big but.  He has never had three good years in a row, (he's 33, too, so the track record's pretty long) )not even really two good years in a row.  Next year, Benoit is just as likely to be worth $850,000 as $5,000,000. SPRO projections call for 2 years at a total of $5,395,000.
Free Agent Headline
Jake Westbrook signs 2 year $16.500,000 contract to remain with St. Louis.  Deal includes third year with $8.5 million mutual option.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals overpay for Westbrook.  It's one of the most confounding attributes of a baseball GM.  They don't believe in history, particularly injury history.  Jake Westbrook was a good pitcher in 2010, but you'd have to go back to 2006 for the year before that, due to injury, when he had been one before.  At 33 years old next year, will he stay healthy?  The Cards are hoping he will.  SPRO projection two years $6,471,000.

Free Agent Headline

John Buck signs 3 year $18,000,000 contract with Florida.

SPRO Analysis
Marlins overpay for Buck.  Geez, it's winter, those folks from Miami shouldn't be getting heat prostration yet, but this contract says they might just be.  John Buck had his best year in 2010, there's not doubt to that.  But his career before that, even though he was a touted player coming out of the minors, doesn't suggest, that at 30 years of age, that he'll repeat it.  There's a better chance he reverts to his norm, with perhaps a slight upgrade.  SPRO projections calls for 2 years at $8,624,000 total.
Free Agent Headline
Ramon Hernandez signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract to remain in Cincy.

SPRO Analysis
Reds get bargain in Hernandez.  This is not a major coup, but by signing Hernandez to this one year contract at that price, they likely saved themselves a little money and didn't go into a second year.  But we think he was worth it.  SPRO noted a 2 year contract at $7,524,000, with the first year at $3,697,000.

Free Agent Headline

Hiroki Kuroda signs 1 year $12,000,000 contract with Los Angeles.  This deal for the Dodgers has yet to be officially announced.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers overpay for Kuroda.  Kuroda won 11 games last year with a good ERA in a pitcher's park and has injury issues.  Now we'd be fine at a three year contract in the range of $23 million.  However, to only get him signed for one year at that price, basically means they're overpaying Kuroda by almost $4.5 million in 2011.  SPRO thinks the 2011 figure should be $7,456,000.

Free Agent Headline

Geoff Blum signs 2 year $2,700,000 contract with Arizona.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks pay market value for Blum.  This is a little tough to characterize.  Blum is worth the per year dollar value, in fact, for one year, he's worth $1,993,000 according to SPRO.  But the two year contract is the tough part.  Now, even if he were to get the traditional old guy bench player contract of $850,000 when added to the SPRO, it's right in line.  So market value it is, but just why we're out there trying to get cost certainty on the low old end of the scale is a little perplexing.

Free Agent Headline

Jose Contreras signs 2 year $5,500,000 contract to stay with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Contreras.  It's a little high and we wouldn't have gone for the second year, but the dollars are not too far above the SPRO projection of $2,344,000.  But we'd like the Phils trot toward getting younger and this really doesn't do that at all with Contreras starting 2011 at 39 years old.  At some point even good teams need to think in that direction; well, maybe the Phils intend to add one of their younger relievers into the spot Chad Durbin has been maintaining. We'll have to wait and see if they think Scott Mathieson deserves a shot at a spot.
Free Agent Headline
Jhonny Peralta signs 2 year $11,250,000 contract with Detroit, including third year option at $6,000,000.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers get bargain with Peralta.  It's not easy to find a shortstop/third baseman with production and durability, and although Peralta is not All-Star caliber most years, he is productive.  SPRO projections call for $8,912,000 in 2010 with a 3 year $27,683,000 not out of line.  He'll be 28 at the end of 2010, so he's young enough, and with years of 21 HR, 72 RBI; 23 HR 89 RBI; 11 HR 83 RBI; 15 HR 81 RBI, over the last four year, we think Detroit got a bargain.  Not a great shortstop (better range than most think), but a fine third baseman, it's not clear how he'll be used in 2010, but this was a good retain by the Tigers. @ Zazzle
Free Agent Headline
David Ortiz has $12,500,000 option picked up by Boston.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox get bargain with Ortiz.  SPRO projection called for $14,549,000 after his 102 RBI year in 2010.  It's a good move to keep this power bat at a good price.

Free Agent Headline
Jay Gibbons signs $400,000 contract (plus COLA) to stay with the Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Gibbons.  This is a hard thing to say, that a bargain is given to a player with past PED problems and little production since 2006.  But he did have an okay spell with Los Angeles last year and a veteran player of this caliber is usually paid in the $850,000 range.  So it's a real good gamble at that price for the Dodgers, in our opinion.

Free Agent Headline
Bronson Arroyo has $11,500,000 option picked up by Cincinnati.

SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value fpr Arroyo.  SPRO projection called for $10,862,000 after his 17 win year in 2010, so they're a little high.  But it's a good pickup as they negotiate a longer term contract.

Free Agent Headline
Jonny Gomes has $1,750,000 option picked up by Cincinnati.

SPRO Analysis
Reds get bargain in Gomes.  SPRO projection called for $3,357,000 in salary in 2010, so this is a nice pickup by the Reds.  He's been good for the Reds for two years now and may just be starting to meet expectations, although a little late at 30 to do that.

Free Agent Headline
Mark Ellis has $6,000,000 option picked up by Oakland.

SPRO Analysis
A's overpay to keep Ellis.  SPRO projection called for $3,662,000 in salary in 2010, so this is too much for Ellis at 33 year of age.  He did rebound some in 2010 after two declining year, but this is the range the Phillies pay for Polanco.  Mark Ellis is not Placido Polanco.

Free Agent Headline
Coco Crisp has $5,750,000 option picked up by Oakland.

SPRO Analysis
A's overpay for Crisp.  SPRO projection called for $2,146,000. At one time, Crisp was worth this amount, but not now.

Free Agent Headline
Jose Reyes has $11,000,000 option picked up by Mets.

SPRO Analysis
Mets overpay for Reyes.  We'd have picked up this option despite what the SPRO numbers say is value at $8,651,000.  However, we'd only pick up the option to trade him.  The Mets have the wrong mix in Queens, and we believe that the talented Reyes is one part of that incorrect brew.

Free Agent Headline
Alex Gonzalez has $2,500,000 option picked up by Atlanta.

SPRO Analysis
Atlanta gets bargain with Gonzalez.  SPRO projection called for $5.838m after his power year in 2010.  Good move for the Braves at a cheap price.

Free Agent Headline
Omar Infante has $2,500,000 option picked up by Atlanta.

SPRO Analysis
Atlanta pays market value for Infante.  If Infante repeats in 2010 season again, of course, this is a bargain, but considering his past three seasons, the SPRO projection puts a $2,991,000 price tag on Omar for 2011.  Sure, that's a slight bargain, but close enough to market value for us to state as much.

Free Agent Headline
Omar Vizquel signs $1,750,000 one year deal to stay with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox overpay for Vizquel.  It's not as if Vizquel performed poorly last year, he did fine, but SPRO number suggest $1,287,000 is a better contract read for a player who's not asked to do too much on the field due to opportunity.

Free Agent Headline

Ramon Castro has $1,200,000 option picked up by Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value by picking up the option and get some stability at the catcher position with the pending free agency of starter A.J. Pierzynski.  SPRO projection for Castro in 2011 is $1,083,000.

Free Agent Headline
Matt Thornton has $3 million option picked up by Chicago White Sox for 2011.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox get bargain for Thornton in 2011.  A stellar left handed relief setup man who made the All-Star team in 2010, Thornton would be worth $6,294,000 in 2011 if on the open market according to SPRO projections.  Although used sporadically in the closer role with the White Sox, his value could jump if put into the closer role. SPRO projects at 3 year $19,396,000 contract.

Free Agent Headline
Brandon Inge signs 2 year $11,500,000 contract to remain with the Detroit Tigers with $6m option for a third year with $500,000 buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Tigers get slight bargain for Inge.  SPRO projection for next two years, $12,904,000.  SPRO contract projections include a 3rd year, making for a total of $19,697,000.

Free Agent Headline

Ted Lilly signs 3 year $33,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Lilly.  SPRO projection for next three years, $31,609,000.  SPRO contract projections include a 4th year, making for a total of $42,892,000 over the four years of the projection.
Options Declined

Edgar Renteria has $9,500,000 option declined by Giants.

Jhonny Peralta has $7,250,000 option declined by Detroit.

Miguel Olivo has $2,500,000 option declined by Toronto.

Kevin Gregg has $5,250,000 option declined by Toronto.

Jeff Francis has $7,000,000 option declined by Colorado.

Scott Podsednik declines his part of the $2,000,000 option already picked up by the Dodgers.

Adrian Beltre declines his part of the
$10,000,000 option already picked up by the Red Sox.

Vladimir Guerrero has $9,000,000 option declined by Texas.

Aaron Harang and
Orlando Cabrera have $12.75m and $4m options respectively declined by Reds.

Eric Chavez has $12.5m option declined by Oakland.

Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, and Jose Lopez have $8m/$5m/$4.5m options declined by Seattle

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Octavio Dotel has $4.5m option declined by Colorado.

Adam Kennedy has $2m option declined by Nationals.

Chris Young has $8.5m option declined by Padres.

Dan Wheeler, and Willy Aybar have $4.25m/$2.2m options declined by Rays.

Jhonny Peralta
has $7,250,000 option declined by Detroit.

Mark Hendrickson
has $1,200,000 option declined by Baltimore.

Adam LaRoche has $7.5 million option declined by Arizona.

J.C. Romero has $4,500,000 option declined by Philadelphia and receives $250,000 buyout, making him a free agent.

Rick Ankiel has $6m option and Kyle Farnsworth has $5.25m option declined by Atlanta.

Trevor Hoffman
has $7.5m option declined by Milwaukee.  Brewers also decline options on Doug Davis at $6.5m and Greg Zaun at $2.25m.

Shibe Park, Philadelphia,     

Red Ruffing Pete Rose Leo Durocher Lefty Grove Ryan Howard
Note: 2010 statistics through November 2, 2010.  Option data source: Cott's Baseball Contracts.

Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2010 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit
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