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Stat Geek Baseball PRO11

More Unique Stats
and Salary Projections
Than You Can Shake a
Hickory Stick At!

Find Out What Your
Favorite Free Agent,
Arbitration Eligible,
and other Players
are worth BEFORE
they sign.

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.  Buy the 2010 Free Agent Tracker and see just what we're talking about.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player







Free Agent 2009-2010
Contract Analysis


November 2009 Signings
December 2009 Signings
January 2010 Signings
2009-2010 Free Agent List


TYPE A FREE AGENTS
Offered Arbitration
Grant Balfour (TBA)
Adrian Beltre (BOS)
Carl Crawford (TBA)
Jorge de la Rosa (COL)
Adam Dunn (WAS)
Frank Francisco (TEX)
Paul Konerko (CHA)
Cliff Lee (TEX)
Victor Martinez (BOS)
Carl Pavano (MIN)
Rafael Soriano (TBA)
Jayson Werth (PHI)

Not Offered Arbitration
Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)
Matt Guerrier (MIN)
Derek Jeter (NYA)
Bengie Molina (TEX)
Magglio Ordonez (DET)
Andy Pettite (NYA)
A.J. Pierzynski (CHA)
Manny Ramirez (CHA)
Mariano Rivera (NYA)
Dan Wheeler (TBA)

Current teams with Type A players signed by another team would receive a Mid-1st Round to
Mid-2nd Round compensation pick from the signing team, plus a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd Round from the league.
A team losing a Type A Free Agent to a team signing more than one Type A Free Agent may receive a lower round pick.

TYPE B FREE AGENTS
Offered Arbitration
Joaquin Benoit (TBA)
John Buck (TOR)
Randy Choate (TBA)
Kevin Correia (TBA)
Jesse Crain (MIN)
Octavio Dotel (COL)
Pedro Feliciano (NYN)
John Garland (SDN)
Brad Hawpe (TBA)
Aaron Heilman (ARI)
Trevor Hoffman (MIL)
Orlando Hudson (MIN)
Adam LaRoche (ARI)
Felipe Lopez (BOS)
Chad Qualls (TBA)
J.J. Putz (CHA)
Yorvit Torrealba (TBA)
Juan Uribe (SFN)
Javier Vazquez (NYA)

The current team that loses a Type B player receives compensation from the league with a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds, but below Type A compensation picks.  The team signing that player is not required to give up draft pick compensation.
Stat Geek Baseball


Free Agent 2010-11 Contract Analysis

Below you will find contract analysis for the Free Agents who have signed for the 2011 season.  Did your team overpay, get a good deal, make a steal?  Here we compare the Salary Projection numbers of Stat Geek Baseball's salary projection system to the actual contracts given.  And if you want even more information, before or after the signings, check out Stat Geek Baseball Pro11 Current and History books, which includes Salary Projections and Career Stats for all players from the 2010 season or all players in baseball history.

Free Agent 2011 Contracts
2010-11 Free Agents
Free Agent Spotlight
Jayson Werth
Bill Hall

December 2010 Signings
Free Agent Headline
Octavio Dotel signs 1 year $3,500,000 contract with Toronto,

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays overpay for Dotel.  Let's make one thing clear, Dotel is an okay pitcher at 36 years old, but ... he's been going slightly downhill every year for the last few.  Still got the arm.  Now has a contract that's thinking back to better days.  Maybe he'll reverse the trend and become the closer type again.  Maybe.  SPRO projection for 2011 is $2,091,000.
Free Agent Headline
Sean Burnett signs 2 year $3,950,000 contract with Washington, including $500,000 per year in incentives and $3.5m mutual option for 3rd year.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals pay market value for Burnett.  The SPRO projection of 2 years and $4,612,000, which including any possible incentives, is right on track with the dollars the Nationals have paid.  Now they may not have to pay those incentives, but of course hope they do, since that means Burnett is playing well, so you could say it's a bit of a bargain.  Good sign by the Nationals; some say Derek Lee is next on their list.

Free Agent Headline
Craig Counsell signs 1 year $1,400,000 contract with Brewers, plus $450,000 in performance incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Indians pay market value for Counsell.  It's a good sign and depending on his use, could even be a slight bargain.  When Counsell gets a chance to play, he usually does it well, and is a good clubhouse guy.  SPRO projection $2,057,000 for 2011, which includes incentives.

Free Agent Headline

Austin Kearns signs 1 year $1,300,000 contract with Indians, plus incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Indians get bargain in Kearns.  Austin had a pretty good year last year in his stints between Cleveland and the Yanks, and we know he's inconsistent lately, but still think this deal makes sense.  SPRO says $2,592,000 for 2011, which includes any possible incentives.

Free Agent Headline

Rick Ankiel signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Nationals, including $1.25m in performance incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals pay pay market value for Ankiel.  SPRO projection, including incentives $2,258,000.

Free Agent Headline
Dan Wheeler signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Boston, including $250,000 in incentives and vesting option for $3m in 2012.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox pay market value for Wheeler.  Adding another solid arm to their bullpen for 2011, Boston hits the target, and doesn't even have to go for a guaranteed second year.  SPRO projection 2 years $6,376,000.
Free Agent Headline
Orlando Hudson signs 2 year $11,500,000 contract with San Diego, includuing $8m mutual option for a third year w/$2m buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Padres pay market value for Hudson.  Pretty close to right on the money, in our opinion with SPRO showing 2 years and $11,160,000 and with a third year, 3 years and $17,035,000.  Always curious to why a defensive player with some offensive skills like Hudson moves around so much.

Free Agent Headline
Pedro Feliciano signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with NY Yankees, including club option for a 3rd year at $4,500,000.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees overpay for Feliciano.  Yes, we know the market for what people perceive as very good setup guys is going up, but we're not comfortable with Feliciano being one of those $4m guys.  SPRO projection 2 years and $5,476,000 with a 2011 salary at $2,691,000.

Free Agent Headline
Joel Peralta signs 1 year $925,000 contract with Tampa Bay.

SPRO Analysis
Rays get bargain in Peralta.  To pick up any pitcher with a 2.02 ERA in 39 appearances and pay under $1m, that's pretty good to us.  SPRO projection $1,691,000.

Free Agent Headline
Bill Hall signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Houston, including mutual option for 2012.
.
SPRO Analysis
Astros pay market value for Hall.  SPRO projection for 2011 $3,021,000 and we're okay with a second year.

Free Agent Headline
Xavier Nady signs $1,750,000 contract with Arizona with $1m on potential bonuses.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks pay market value for Nady.  SPRO for 2011, including incentives, is $2,605,000.

Free Agent Headline
Jeremy Accardo signs split contract, paying $1,080,000 in majors/$300,000 in minors with Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles overpay for Accardo if on the major league level.  Not bad because it's a split deal, but SPRO projection for 2011 is $550,000.
Free Agent Headline
Bobby Jenks signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Boston.  There are additional incentives.
.
SPRO Analysis
Red Sox overpay for Jenks.  Here's a little hint.  When players decline four years in a row, they often don't rebound to the level they used to be at.  Why the Red Sox did this at those dollars is beyond us.  Here's some numbers to consider.  For five years in a row, his IP has decreased, from a high of 69.7 in 2006 to 52.7 in 2010.  For the last three years, his ERA has increased, from 2.63 to 3.71 to 4.44.  For four years, his PEVA Player Ratings has decreased, from 16.657 in 2007 to 10.169 to 3.852 to 2.683.  We're not saying you don't sign a guy like this, but you don't give him these dollars.  SPRO projection 2 years for a total of $6,657,000.

Free Agent Headline
Chin Meng Wang signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Washington with $5m additional incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals overpay for Wang.  But it's a good enough deal.  SPRO says $567,000 with no reach back, and with a decline of 21.459 to 17.060 to 2.929 to 0.411 to 0.000 in PEVA over the last five years, there really shouldn't be any.  The incentives are fine and we hope Wang comes back.

Free Agent Headline
Kerry Wood signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Chicago Cubs.  This is a preliminary deal that may include performance incentives..
.
SPRO Analysis
Cubs get bargain in Wood.  Yes, he's back to the Windy city and it's a good deal for the Cubs, who don't often make too many in free agent game.  SPRO projection 2 years and $6,258,000 with the 2011 salary projection of $3,075,000.

Free Agent Headline
Edwin Encarnacion resigns with Toronto for $2,500,000, including club option for 2012 at $3.5m.

SPRO Analysis
Blue Jays pay market value for Encarnacion.  SPRO projection for 2 years and $5,667,000, including $2,471,000 salary in 2011.
Free Agent Headline
Jesse Crain signs 3 year $13,000,000 contract with Chicago White Sox.
.
SPRO Analysis
White Sox overpay for Crain.  Yes, it is a good year to be a middle reliever, and MLB seems to be forgetting that there's still an economic morass in the rest of the economy.  Crain's was good in 2010, but he's been a ping pong ball the last four years.  And if trends continue, he's bound for a down up down three years.  Not worth it to us or SPRO with a projection of 1 year and $2,150,000.

Free Agent Headline
Rich Harden signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Oakland, with additional incentives.

SPRO Analysis
A's get bargain in Harden.  Injury plagued throughout his career, the last two seasons have not been good ones for Harden.  But he does have potential and is still only 29.  If he rebounds to anywhere near his 2008 season, this is a great steal for the A's.  Right now it's just a bargain worth taking.  SPRO projection $4,083,000 for 2011, including incentives.

Free Agent Headline
Russell Martin signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with NY Yankees
.
SPRO Analysis
Yankees get bargain in Martin.  Yes, it's complicated by injuries, but if Martin can get back to where he was two years ago with the Dodgers, then the Yankees have gotten a good deal.  Smart to sign him to only a one year deal, but if healthy, Martin is worth three years and $19,541m.  For 2011, SPRO projection $5,379,000.

Free Agent Headline
Matt Guerrier signs 3 year $12,000,000 contract with LA Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers pay market value for Guerrier.  One of the middle relievers we'd pay good money to, the SPRO for Guerrier shows a 2 year contract at $10,014,000, higher on the average, but lower in length. This guy gives you innings and a good ERA.

Free Agent Headline
Henry Blanco signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Arizona.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks overpay for Blanco.  SPRO projection for 2011 is $850,000.
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Free Agent Headline
Hideki Matsui signs 1 year $4,250,000 contract with Oakland
.
SPRO Analysis
A's get bargain in Matsui.  He's pretty darn consistent for being old,  36 going into 2011, but he's likely going to give you 20 HR, and 80 RBI, and getting that for $4m is a bargain.  SPRO projection $6,890,000 in 2011.

Free Agent Headline
Lyle Overbay signs 1 year $5,000,000 contract with Pittsburgh.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates get bargain in Overbay.  A bit of the same dynamic as Matsui, although he's younger and not as much of a run producer.  That's the knock on Overbay, that his RBI total is at the bottom of the 1st basemen list.  Still, he's a good player for the Pirates at this price.  SPRO $6,173,000 in 2011.

Free Agent Headline
Dionar Navarro signs 1 year $1,600,000 contract with LA Dodgers.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Navarro.  It's right on the money if his role in LA is as a backup to Barajas, but if that status changes or becomes more a platoon role, we think this is a good deal for the Dodgers.  SPRO projection is $1,640,000.
Free Agent Headline
Cliff Lee signs 5 year $120,000,000 contract with vesting option for 6th year with Philadelphia that could make deal 6 years and $135m. (Edited as of 12-15-10)

SPRO Analysis
Phillies overpay for Lee.  Oh, my!  Few saw this coming, and it gives the Phils an awesome front four in the rotation, but as the details came through as to the contract itself, and if the details out now are true, then this has gone from a market value deal to an overpay. Cliff Lee didn't really leave money on the table folks, it seems to have gotten a deal at the max of his per year value and we think above it.  He's either going to be paid $24.5m per year for 5 years or $22.5 per for six.  That last year can be guaranteed with 200 IP with other guarantees, too, and is for $27.5m with a $12.5 buyout.  The Yanks deal may have had more dollars, $154m for 7, if that's true, but this may truly be better for Lee. Now the trade of Lee away from Philly last year may not make that much sense, and this kinda makes the trade for Oswalt, costing them the younger Happ unnecessary, but this gives the Phils a four man rotation the baseball world hasn't seen since the Orioles of the 1970s.  We're not a fan of over $20m contracts; don't see the need or proof they guarantee championships.  It's more of an accumulation of talent. Well, the Phils certainly have that, so maybe we're barking up the wrong overpay tree. It's getting to be one expensive forest.  SPRO projection 6 years and $117,967m, an average of $19.66m per year.

Free Agent Headline
Koji Uehara signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles pay market value for Uehara.  Also difficult to predict with a veteran Japanese player with a couple seasons in MLB.  If you give Koji credit for a Free Agent level contract and MLST, then he's worth an SPRO of $2,573,000 for 2011.

Free Agent Headline
Matt Treanor signs 1 year $850,000 contract with Texas.

SPRO Analysis
Rangers pay market value for Treanor.  SPRO projection for Treanor as a backup catcher is $1,048,000.

Free Agent Headline
Scott Downs signs 3 year $15,000,000 contract with $1m incentives with LA Angels of Anaheim.

SPRO Analysis
Angels pay market value for Downs.  They missed out on some of the big free agents, but now have a man for the bullpen.  Downs has been very good as a setup man for the past few years, so this should help, although it's probably not enough to propel them too far in the pennant race.  SPRO projection 3 years and $14,255,000.

Free Agent Headline
Cesar Izturis signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Baltimore.

SPRO Analysis
Orioles get bargain in Izturis.  Well, it's a bargain if Izturis makes his way back to his former status, that of a starting player, but if he remains in a backup role to J.J. Hardy, then this contract makes sense.  SPRO projection as a starting player is 2 years and $6,117,000, which is what he's been in recent years.  It does not account for a change in use.

Free Agent Headline
Wil Nieves signs 1 year $775,000 contract with Milwaukee, plus incentives based on plate appearances.

SPRO Analysis
Brewers pay market value for Nieves.  We're always a bit hesitant to give out even marginal contracts to career backups, likely preferring to go with younger players, but for a veteran catcher, this is right in line.  SPRO says he's only worth $554,000, but why quibble over a couple hundred thousand dollars when payrolls are $100 million.
Free Agent Headline
Scott Olsen signs 1 year $500,000 contract with $3m incentives with Pittsburgh.  Deal includes $4m club option for 2012.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates get bargain in Olsen.  I know it's hard to fathom a bargain for a pitcher whose ERA in the last two years was 6.03 and 5.56.  But with a low guarantee, that's just what this is.  With hopes of getting back to three or four years ago, the Pirates think they may have a cheap option.  We'll see, but it is a good bargain to try.  SPRO projection (including incentives) $3,333,000.

Free Agent Headline
Dennys Reyes signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Philadelphia.

SPRO Analysis
Phillies pay market value for Reyes.  If fact, at an SPRO level of $1,719,000, it might even be a slight bargain.  But before Philly fans get all wiggy about it, let's examine who Reyes is lately.  Three years of declining innings pitched and a rising ERA.  46.3, 41.0, 38.0 IP.  2.33, 3.29, 3.55 ERA.  Those numbers are still in the okay to good territory, but you've got to be a bit concerned about the trend.

Free Agent Headline
Vincente Padilla signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with LA Dodgers, including up to $11m in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Dodgers get bargain in Padilla.  Now there's a real hard statement to make, because many baseball folks say that just dealing with Padilla is no bargain at any time, even when he's pitching good.  So, why do we say it, particularly when he may be in a new non-starting role next year?  Well, because he has a diamond arm.  SPRO projection of $3,039,000 for 2011.  But that incentive contract may be better.

Free Agent Headline
Carl Crawford signs 7 year $142,000,000 contract with Boston.

SPRO Analysis
Red Sox overpay for Crawford.  Com'n, folks.  All we keep hearing with the Crawford signing is how great a deal and unstoppable this makes the Red Sox.  And yes, Crawford is good, and coupled with Adrian Gonzalez, who is great, it makes them a better team.  But not at these dollars.  Three years ago, Crawford had 8 HR, 57 RBI, and batted 0.273.  Two years ago, it was 15 HR, 68, RBI, 0.305.  Last year 19, 90, 0.307.  That's one very good year out of three.  And while yes, he's a speed burner and Gold Glove outfielder, is Carl Crawford really that much better than Shane Victorino?  He's better, but how much.  Not much at all, really.  Career OPS for Crawford 0.781 (0.795 ave. last 3 years), Victorino 0.770 (.786 ave. last 3 years).  Run Production last 3 years, Crawford 495, Victorino 477. SPRO projection 5 years for $60,030,000.  And Victorino will only cost you $9.5m in his first free agent level year.  Go figure.

Free Agent Headline
Jeff Francouer signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Kansas City, including $4.5m mutual option for 2012.

SPRO Analysis
Royals get bargain in Francouer.  It's as much about playing time for Francouer as anything else and with the Royals he'll get a chance to rebound, still only 27 years old, to what he was becoming at the beginning of his careers.  And it's a good gamble.  SPRO projection 3 years and $22,623,000.

Free Agent Headline
Miguel Cairo signs 2 year $2,000,000 contract with Cincinnati.

SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value for Cairo.  It's a good deal for a utilityman who played well in 2010.  SPRO projection 1 year at $1,116,000.

Free Agent Headline
Jack Cust signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Seattle.  Deal is preliminary at this time.

SPRO Analysis
Mariners get bargain in Cust.  More productive and very patient, Cust will add a bit of punch to the Mariner lineup.  SPRO $4,482,000 in 2011 and worth more than one year.

Free Agent Headline
D.J. Carrasco signs 2 year $2,500,000 contract with New York Mets.  Deal is preliminary.

SPRO Analysis
Mets pay market value for Carrasco.  SPRO projection fo 2011 is $1,661,000.

Free Agent Headline
Matt Diaz signs 2 year $4,250,000 contract with Pittsburgh.   Deal is preliminary.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates pay market value for Diaz  Don't think we'd have gone for the second guaranteed year, but at an SPRO for 2011 of $2,276,000, it's a fair deal.

Free Agent Headline

George Sherrill signs 1 year $1,200,000 contract with Atlanta, including $200,000 in incentives.

SPRO Analysis
Braves get bargain in Sherrill.  It's a reach back bargain, admittedly, which seem to be going by the wayside, but we believe Sherrill will rebound in 2011.  SPRO projection $3,411,000, which is predicated on having a different, former closer role than Atlanta is seeking, therefore their lower cost.

Paul Konerko signs 3 year $37,500,000 contract to stay with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value for Konerko.  There was some doubt to whether he would resign there, but in the end, Konerko did.  And it seems a good deal for the White Sox after Konerko's monster season in 2010 when he hit 39 HR, 111 RBI, and batted 0.312. Now it's unlikely he'll average that over the next three years; he hadn't done that over the past three, but he'll likely be productive.  SPRO projection 3 years and $34,576,000.  And SPRO was okay with a 4 year deal at $46,917,000.

Free Agent Headline

Carlos Pena signs 1 year $10,000,000 contract with Chicago Cubs.

SPRO Analysis
Cubs overpay for Pena.  Every year the Cubs do this.  Overpay for someone who used to be very good, but has significant holes in his game.  Now Pena is young enough to rebound, so we're not saying he's a bad player to sign.  He's just not a $10m player any longer after four straight years in decline.  PEVA has gone from 23.368 in 2007 to 11.294 to 11.191 to 7.451 in 2010.  RBI production has gone from 121 in 2007 to 102, 100, 84.  Batting Average from 0.282 in 2007 to 0.247, 0.227, 0.196.  We're noticing a trend.  SPRO for 2011 is $6,726,000.  We'd rather have given him more years for less money per year.

Free Agent Headline
Kevin Correia signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with Pittsburgh, including $1m in performance incentives in 2012.

SPRO Analysis
Pirates pay market value for Correia.  With a bit of a ping pong ball career, it's hard to say that Correia is a slight bargain, coming off a 5.40 ERA in San Diego's spacious ballpark.  SPRO says 2 years and $10,370,000, and that's largely based on the fact that he'll give you innings most years.  But he's an up and down pitcher, good year, bad year.  Just look at his ERA over the past four seasons:  3.45, 6.05, 3.91, 5.40.  He's due for a good one, so maybe the Pirates are hoping for that to lower their starter ERA of 5.28 in 2010. But they've just signed a pitcher who's ERA, and even worse if adjusted for park, was higher than theirs last year.

Free Agent Headline

Ty Wigginton signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with Colorado, including 2013 option and $500,000 buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Rockies pay market value for Wigginton.  He's a versatile player who waned a bit in the second half of 2010.  But this contract is appropriate for Ty with a SPRO projection of 2 years and $8,873,000.

Free Agent Headline
J.J. Putz signs 2 year $10,000,000 contract with Arizona.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks pay market value for Putz.  Another one of those is he really back after a good campaign and will his role be setup of closer as in those years in Seattle.  SPRO projection reaches back to those good years, although as stated in another analysis, clubs seem to be straddling the line more this year than in years past.  SPRO projection 2 years and $10,950,000.

Free Agent Headline

Melvin Mora signs 1 year $2,400,000 contract with Arizona.

SPRO Analysis
Diamondbacks get bargain in Mora.  Yes, it's been two years since Mora was a plus starter and is now starting 2011 at 38 years of age, but the possibilities are good, if he now takes on a starting role, that Mora will be worth more than the $above.  Yes, we are concerned that each year of the last three has seen a step taken back in his PEVA ratings, from 10.362 to 5.053 to 2.669.  And if that trend continues, the SPRO and Actual contracts will be wrong.  SPRO $3,938,000.

Free Agent Headline
Aaron Harang signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with San Diego, including mutual option for 2012 with buyout.

SPRO Analysis
Padres get bargain in Harang.  Back spasms have caused a problem for Harang over the last several years, but they say that problem is now past.  If true, and Harang returns to 2007 and 2008 form when his PEVA was all-pro level above 20.000, then you've got yourself a very good pitcher at a bargain price.  But the Padres were smart here, not succumbing to the reach back habits that many clubs were using a couple years back and the SPRO reflects at $6,282,000.  We'll have to wait and see how long that trend holds to change the dynamic, however, as a pure RAVE SPRO of $2,412,000 is really all Harang is worth if you're not reaching back at all.  One stat trend that's very concerning, each year since 2006, Harang's innings have dropped.  Let's hope, for the Padres sake, that trend stops.

Free Agent Headline
Jason Werth signs 7 year $126,000,000 contract with Washington.

SPRO Analysis
Nationals overpay for Werth.  Too long and too much.  Let's be frank, Jason Werth is a very good ballplayer worth, from an SPRO standpoint, six years and $96,374,000.  That's a lot of cash.  But what the Nationals have done is go past those years and dollars for a player who's been All-Star great for two years (I know, he only made one, but he's been good enough twice).  That said, and the reason why the SPRO numbers are even that high, is that Werth, at age 31, has improved the last three years.  So we're not going to say this is Aaron Rowand all over again, but might be Torii Hunter territory.  Very good player given great dollars.

Free Agent Headline
Lance Berkman signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract with St. Louis.

SPRO Analysis
Cardinals pay market value for Berkman.  This has been a very good baseball player, but at 34, had his worst season last year.  Problem is, you're not sure whether that was an aberration, or part of the down trend over the last several seasons.  In either case, the Cardinals have made a good sign (not sure about the outfield thing) with SPRO projection for 2011 at $8,904,000.  And based on past performance, there are some players who would have gotten more years and we believe, Berkman likely would have been one of them, but preferred to play for a contending team.

Free Agent Headline
Derek Jeter signs 3 year $51,000,000 contract with NY Yankees, including player option at $8m for fourth year with $3m buyout.  4th year could escalate to $17m based on performance.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees overpay for Jeter.  Yes, he's a franchise icon and getting the normal 20% New York bump, but it's still a bit much for a great player who's on the back side of his career.  They're still going to get a good player here for a couple years, but he'd be the same good player at the SPRO projection numbers of three years and $41,344,000, too.  A bit of meritorious service dollars here in the golden parachute capital of the world.  Expected, but a bit high.
Free Agent Headline
Bronson Arroyo signs 3 year $35,000,000 contract with Cincinnati.  Deal is actually a two year extension added onto the $11.5m option exercised earlier in the offseason.

SPRO Analysis
Reds pay market value for Arroyo.  Basically this is a right on the money move with SPRO projections calling for three years at $33,742,000.  In what is essentially a three year deal, a trend is beginning to emerge this offseason with shorter term contracts for plus players.  In past years a pitcher like Arroyo may have warranted a contract term in the 5 year range.  It will be interesting to see if any players, including Cliff Lee, Jason Werth, and Carl Crawford will approach those terms.

Free Agent Headline
Pat Burrell signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with San Francisco.

SPRO Analysis
Giants get bargain for Burrell.  There must be more to this, like incentives not yet revealed, because if the contract terms reported are true, it is one great bargain for the Giants.  Even though Burrell has tailed off in recent years, he has been the starting leftfielder for two World Series winners and still put up 20 HR and 64 RBI last year. SPRO projections show a contract worth of $5,111,000 in 2011.

Free Agent Headline
Hisanori Takahashi signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with LA Angels of Anaheim.

SPRO Analysis
Angels overpay for Takahashi.  These contracts are tough to determine their value for, since he's a veteran Japanese pitcher with only one modest year in the majors here.  But his 3.361 PEVA in that one year and flashes of good things in 2010 just don't let us jump to the dollars noted above.  He's 35 years old as 2011 begins; SPRO projection $2,663,000 and that's giving him some additional allowances, too.

Free Agent Headline

A.J. Pierzynski signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox get bargain in Pierzynski.  There's not a whole lot of great hitting and fielding catching out there, and although A.J. is now 34 and showing slight decreases in his production, we think this is a great deal for the White Sox.  SPRO projections show a two year contract at $10,822,000 and a warranted third year to boot.  Since he came on the scene in a full-time role in 2001, he's been a steady every year performer, something the White Sox would love to see continue as they retool for a Central Division crown.

Free Agent Headline

Mariano Rivera signs 2 year $30,000,000 contract with New York Yankees.  Preliminary report and deal.

SPRO Analysis
Yankees pay market value for Rivera.  If this report is accurate and RIvera has turned down three years and $17m per from other sources, which we think would have been above board in terms of dollars, then the Yankees have their man back in the back of the bullpen at a fair price.  Rivera is the best relief pitcher in history, but now 41 years old.  He'll be in the Hall of Fame five years after retirement, but six years in a row has pitched less innings than the year before.  SPRO projection two years and $26,382,000.
Free Agent Headline
Adam Dunn signs 4 year $56,000,000 contract with the Chicago White Sox.

SPRO Analysis
White Sox pay market value for Dunn.  Sure, we know he's not a gazelle and has deficiencies in the field, but this is one remarkably consistent player and worth the contract given.  He's even one of those players that might warrant a longer term.  Since 1994, Dunn has rated between 10.000 and 19.000 PEVA every year.  That's eight a plus starter to All-Star.  SPRO projection for four years is $55,252,000, but it would be okay with a longer term.

Free Agent Headline

Jason Varitek signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Boston.

SPRO Analysis
Boston overpays for Varitek.  Let's start with a caveat.  If Varitek ends up being the starter here, and healthy, he's worth the money.  Problem is, at 38 years of age, and with four consecutive decreasing years in the PEVA ratings; 9.593, 5.241, 4.635, 0.930, you're not real sure that's what you'll be getting.  But it's a good sign and not too far off the SPRO of $1,510,000.  He's part of Red Sox history, and a coach on the field, too.

November Free Agent
Signing Analysis

Options Declined

Edgar Renteria has $9,500,000 option declined by Giants.

Jhonny Peralta has $7,250,000 option declined by Detroit.

Miguel Olivo has $2,500,000 option declined by Toronto.

Kevin Gregg has $5,250,000 option declined by Toronto.

Jeff Francis has $7,000,000 option declined by Colorado.

Scott Podsednik declines his part of the $2,000,000 option already picked up by the Dodgers.

Adrian Beltre declines his part of the
$10,000,000 option already picked up by the Red Sox.


Vladimir Guerrero has $9,000,000 option declined by Texas.

Aaron Harang and
Orlando Cabrera have $12.75m and $4m options respectively declined by Reds.

Eric Chavez has $12.5m option declined by Oakland.

Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, and Jose Lopez have $8m/$5m/$4.5m options declined by Seattle


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Octavio Dotel has $4.5m option declined by Colorado.

Adam Kennedy has $2m option declined by Nationals.

Chris Young has $8.5m option declined by Padres.

Dan Wheeler, and Willy Aybar have $4.25m/$2.2m options declined by Rays.

Jhonny Peralta
has $7,250,000 option declined by Detroit.


Mark Hendrickson
has $1,200,000 option declined by Baltimore.


Adam LaRoche has $7.5 million option declined by Arizona.

J.C. Romero has $4,500,000 option declined by Philadelphia and receives $250,000 buyout, making him a free agent.

Rick Ankiel has $6m option and Kyle Farnsworth has $5.25m option declined by Atlanta.

Trevor Hoffman
has $7.5m option declined by Milwaukee.  Brewers also decline options on Doug Davis at $6.5m and Greg Zaun at $2.25m.

 
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